I don't think the PAC can afford to stay at 10. If anyone thought it was close to collapsing losing 2 schools when you started with 12, losing 2 at 10 is most definitely fatal.
John, you've made a valiant effort, but I'm not convinced on SDSU (or any MWC team). It's an extra mouth to feed, and though the Aztecs are in SoCal, they do not deliver SoCal. Let's face it, UCLA doesn't even deliver SoCal (look at the empty Rose Bowl). To the extent that SoCal will care about college football, it will be Big10 country (like Texas/Florida and the SEC).
I'm not wild about expanding into Texas, but you can make a recruiting argument I suppose. Here, of course, poaching from the Big12 is preferable to any other option. If the Big12 is not an option, I'd throw UTSA onto the list with SMU and Rice. San Antonio is a huge city without a P5 team or an NFL team. For a 4th, Tulane at least gets you a great destination city.
I hope the conference is able to stay at 10. I assume they will only expand if ESPN demands it or if they think they can deal a death blow to the Big12.
I'm not wild about expanding into Texas, but could see why the consultants would explore it. Also, you ONLY add a team if the media rights valuations pencil out. SDSU does.
If the Pac-12 is dead without SoCal, then the Pac-12 is dead. SDSU isn't going to save the Pac-12 from anything.
Expansion could happen if ESPN demands it to ensure inventory. Otherwise, I'm sure the people involved realize SDSU doesn't move the needle on any media negotiations.
SDSU keeps it in play and then 1-3 more keeps the P12 alive. If you don’t think having a footprint in So. Cal is crucial for recruiting in ALL sports, y’all are naive.
Again, if that’s the case, it’s toast already. SDSU will not save the Pac. Specifically, SDSU does nothing meaningful to add to our SoCal footprint. The Big10 just stole SoCal, and SDSU doesn’t bring it back any more than adding UCSD would.
Ignorant/troll statement. UCSD has no football and never will. And Canzano agrees with me. You know little about So. Cal, business or college athletics, it seems.
The size of the market is only part of the equation. Rice may be in Houston, but does anyone in Houston care about Rice? A rabid fan base has to be part of the equation -- which factor in with Fresno State and Boise State. I'd argue that more people care about their games than care about Cal or Stanford games. There are others though, and you left them off your list. While Cheyenne might not be a large market, Cowboys games matter to all of Wyoming. The same is true about Montana, New Mexico, and the University of Texas at El Paso. I think you've confused market size with audience size.
I don't dispute that. I'm just saying that media market is only one factor and John seems fixated on it. SDSU is a great school, but I think it has the same issue Cal and Stanford has -- no one cares about their games.
TV households is the No. 1 factor. See Maryland and Rutgers. It’s why the Big Ten wanted USC and UCLA. It’s why Stanford and Cal are HUGELY valuable to Pac-12.
But it's widely agreed that Maryland and Rutgers was a mistake. It has not increased Big10 revenue. If they could go back on that invite, they'd do it. It was Delany's only real mistake. If no one in SoCal cares about SDSU (and no one does), ESPN isn't going to ga-ga over the TV households.
No one cares about Cal, Stanford or SDSU? That’s news. And you don’t think SDSU can grow into better support with new stadium and P12 membership? I do. Check out the Aztec men’s basketball program, too!
Sep 28, 2022·edited Sep 28, 2022Liked by John Canzano
The Aztecs need a lot of improvement in their football coaching staff Brady Hoke was an emergency hire. Had a great year now has the worst offenses in the country..(again) Not sure the Pac 12-2 can get over its superiority complex. But if they can and with the extra stadium money the Aztecs can upgrade their Football staff .It would be a win for all. I could see Hawaii or Boise as football only and Gonzaga for BB. (affiliate members) a skinflints delight. Appreciate your work John.
C’mon, man, SDSU football is on a great run. Seems to be a low blow to nail the Aztecs we’re bad offense. (The passing game is second to the worst, not the entire offense. Keep it factual.) Maybe Colorado should be booted for terrible start? And the Aztecs are 2-2.
It is 117th in total offense, one year that happens, but it has been going on now for about ten years . Its fixable hire an OC that can do it and pay him what he is worth.
to quote Kirk McKinney of the Union Tribune "San Diego State has used a clever and concise slogan to represent its annual quest for a conference championship.
In 2015, it was #Win20, and the Aztecs went on to beat Air Force for the Mountain West championship.
In 2016, it was #Win21 and they beat Wyoming for the title.
In 2017, SDSU debuted #Win22, which has been in play ever since.
Well while I'm not sold on expansion...I'll give my picks and reasons, SDSU is a no brainer, and I would pair that with Fresno State...Fresno has competed well with Pac 12 schools, has a much more competitive all around athletic program. While UNLV brings flash they don't bring any substance. I say no to that. If we are looking for more than two...I say Houston, (huge market, competitive in most sports) and Texas Tech...while Lubbock is not a huge market, (Houston offsets that) they are competitive in both football and basketball and golf. Houston traveled in the CONF-USA...SO doing the same in the Pac shouldn't be an issue, and more exposure in the Pac. SMU, & Rice are not competitive and are tiny...No sports footprint whatsoever. May as well bring in the University of Loyola Marymount, or Cal State Fullerton if you want that.
You say SDSU is a no brainer, Fresno is competitive, Houston is competitive, but SMU is not competitive. You might want to look at schedules and records and who the teams were facing before making that statement. Or adjust your window to more recent than 10-20 years ago.
I'll say it again: Add SDSU yesterday. Hopefully UCLA comes to their senses. If they don't, I do think another school should be recruited, possibly 3 more. The allure of the Texas market is real, but if you told me we were getting SDSU, UNLV and Fresno, I'd take it. I know the latter two don't move the financial needle - yet. But UNLV plays in an NFL stadium and is a better academic school than many think. The football program will grow better with the cache of the Pac12, and we have seen in the past how strong their hoops can be. The sponsorship dollars available have no limit. If the Pac loses UCLA, Fresno St over time could be a suitable replacement. Especially with conference rivalries developing with Stanford, Cal and SDSU.
During the past decade, SMU has raised over $250M in athletic facilities upgrades that are now mostly completed.
During the past decade SMU Athletics has received 381 gifts of $100k or more AND 50 gifts of $1M or more (this past weekend they received $15M and $5M gifts towards FB stadium expansion.
We already have 2 NILs, one has paid out over $1M, the other pays all its FB & BB players $36k per year.
If we get a P5 invite, millions & millions will be poured into NILs….potentially in excess of $100M.
It’s called pent-up demand. SMU wants to be relevant again.
And don’t kid yourself, I’m from Dallas….TCU, Baylor and Tech want no part of SMU. They know we’ll kick their butts, just like in the old days.
As a USC undergraduate from 1975-79, I was shocked at the amount of students from the Central Valley of California… and even more shocked at the amount of $$$$ and affluence that they represented…Fresno and Bakersfield rivaled the So Cal Beach Communities as active members of the USC student population… and that hasn’t changed… it’s equally surprising how many of them return to the Central Valley upon graduation… there’s an identity that’s difficult to explain unless you’re from that area… Fresno State always puts out a strong product… and their fanbase travels really well… they’d be a much better addition to the PAC than they’re getting credit for…the number of TV viewers in a particular market is an important piece of the equation… but, it’s not the only piece…ucla sits in the middle of a suburban market in excess of 12 million people… and struggles to put 25,000 in the Rose Bowl for home games…it doesn’t matter how many people are in your market, if nobody cares about your product… Fresno State would carry the entire middle of California… where they have no competition for viewers… and they’d beat a majority of the PAC on a regular basis… the PAC would do well to humble themselves a bit, and quit looking down their noses at such viable candidates…Fresno would be a solid addition..
Fresno St is part of the California State University system. They may not be labeled/popularly known as CSUF, but their official name is what I wrote. Go to the school website and verify.
I’m not disputing what you wrote, I’m just amused that you can’t seem to grasp that we are both saying the same thing. When one says Cal State Fresno, the university part is implied, just like it is when someone says Cal State Fullerton or Cal State Bakersfield. It’s just that Cal State Fresno decided to be different and go by Fresno State.
The Big Ten isn't coming for Oregon in this cycle. It doesn't pencil out. It's not even close. Also, wondering why Oregon would want to leave given the CFP expansion. Pac-12 would be wise to add SDSU.
The current PAC-12 is barely a Power Five conference. Adding any of those schools other than San Diego State will immediately downgrade the conference to a Mountain West level. What a joke.
In what way? SDSU will surpass U, OSU, WSU , ASU and A athletically and in academic in a decade of P12 membership. Academics are already better than OSU
This is a short-sighted assessment. Look at what the P12 has done for the Arizona schools in terms of athletic and academic improvement. A more recent example: Utah.
It's really hard to use the AZ expansion as a comp here, as it was 40+ years ago and almost nothing about the sport and the media landscape even resembles things then.
Utah I will go with you on, but I would add that Utah stood out as a crystal clear, really great, expansion candidate when they were added. There was no hemming/hawing/debating. They were an obvious 100% choice, and none of the ones being discussed now fit that profile in my view.
I disagree. I had in depth discussion with an ASU alum on this. It may be 40 years ago, but P12 helped them big time in academics and athletics. But, yes, Utah is the more recent and pertinent comparison.
I don't think the argument that if the Pac 12 adds two MW schools, we might become the MW makes any sense to me. I think whoever is added from the MW is going to become a Pac 12 school. Picking schools that you think can rise to the occasion - that have room to grow as a school and program. I'm not worried about lowering the standards at all. Utah proves that MW schools can come and be a dog eventually.
Colorado State is in a bad place today record-wise. But they have a new stadium and Power Five facilities. They invested a lot of money in Jay Norvell to coach this year. They've made a big football commitment. Ft. Collins is a growing city in a booming Northern Colorado footprint and 60 miles from Denver. Research dollars-wise and academics-wise, Colorado State is comparable to multiple schools already in Power Five conferences and above San Diego State, Boise State and Fresno State.
All this talk doesn’t matter if the big 10 poaches 2-4 schools. Oregon, Washington and the Bay Area schools. Who knows they might even poach Utah. This season we have the better teams. Too bad we don’t have the better conference. Oh we can thank Larry Scott for that.
These are all basically brand diluters if you ask me.
Maybe add SDSU and just stay at 11 (or 12 if UCLA stays)
The rest do nothing for me
If pressed, I'd rather just stay at 10
Not opposed to only adding 1. I think that's a real possibility.
I don't think the PAC can afford to stay at 10. If anyone thought it was close to collapsing losing 2 schools when you started with 12, losing 2 at 10 is most definitely fatal.
If you add more that don't up the per school net, you're making it worse, not better.
Only the TV networks know here really.
If they say it makes sense to add, I'm sure the PAC will do so.
I'm just pretty skeptical that will be their opinion here given the expansion options.
Must add schools that add value. San Diego State does.
John, you've made a valiant effort, but I'm not convinced on SDSU (or any MWC team). It's an extra mouth to feed, and though the Aztecs are in SoCal, they do not deliver SoCal. Let's face it, UCLA doesn't even deliver SoCal (look at the empty Rose Bowl). To the extent that SoCal will care about college football, it will be Big10 country (like Texas/Florida and the SEC).
I'm not wild about expanding into Texas, but you can make a recruiting argument I suppose. Here, of course, poaching from the Big12 is preferable to any other option. If the Big12 is not an option, I'd throw UTSA onto the list with SMU and Rice. San Antonio is a huge city without a P5 team or an NFL team. For a 4th, Tulane at least gets you a great destination city.
I hope the conference is able to stay at 10. I assume they will only expand if ESPN demands it or if they think they can deal a death blow to the Big12.
I'm not wild about expanding into Texas, but could see why the consultants would explore it. Also, you ONLY add a team if the media rights valuations pencil out. SDSU does.
The Pac 12 will die without a team in So. Cal. Period.
If the Pac-12 is dead without SoCal, then the Pac-12 is dead. SDSU isn't going to save the Pac-12 from anything.
Expansion could happen if ESPN demands it to ensure inventory. Otherwise, I'm sure the people involved realize SDSU doesn't move the needle on any media negotiations.
SDSU keeps it in play and then 1-3 more keeps the P12 alive. If you don’t think having a footprint in So. Cal is crucial for recruiting in ALL sports, y’all are naive.
If you solution is to stay at 10? P12 is toast.
Again, if that’s the case, it’s toast already. SDSU will not save the Pac. Specifically, SDSU does nothing meaningful to add to our SoCal footprint. The Big10 just stole SoCal, and SDSU doesn’t bring it back any more than adding UCSD would.
Ignorant/troll statement. UCSD has no football and never will. And Canzano agrees with me. You know little about So. Cal, business or college athletics, it seems.
His point is that we were already talking about the Pac-12 being behind and losing the war .... **with** UCLA and USC
Swapping both them for SDSU, further cements and relegates to the Pac-11 to lower tier status.
It's two cuts of filet mignon gettin swapped for a hungry man dinner
It would "keep it alive", yes
The question is really...."is that a long term solution"?
For passengers with lifeboat options, it really isn't that appealing to just keep the Titanic floating a bit longer.
(I fully admit that the "lifeboat options" don't presently exist - at least not that we know about publicly)
Agreed - UCLA should stay ;-)
My ideal: UCLA rethinks it and SDSU replaces usc. That’s hold, baby!
Sign me up for that right now!!
The size of the market is only part of the equation. Rice may be in Houston, but does anyone in Houston care about Rice? A rabid fan base has to be part of the equation -- which factor in with Fresno State and Boise State. I'd argue that more people care about their games than care about Cal or Stanford games. There are others though, and you left them off your list. While Cheyenne might not be a large market, Cowboys games matter to all of Wyoming. The same is true about Montana, New Mexico, and the University of Texas at El Paso. I think you've confused market size with audience size.
So Wyoming should be the P12's choice? LOL. There are MANY factors for expansion. It's pieces of the a puzzle that make the best candidate(s).
I don't dispute that. I'm just saying that media market is only one factor and John seems fixated on it. SDSU is a great school, but I think it has the same issue Cal and Stanford has -- no one cares about their games.
TV households is the No. 1 factor. See Maryland and Rutgers. It’s why the Big Ten wanted USC and UCLA. It’s why Stanford and Cal are HUGELY valuable to Pac-12.
… TV sells households. I wrote about it here: https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-and-the-rest-of-us
But it's widely agreed that Maryland and Rutgers was a mistake. It has not increased Big10 revenue. If they could go back on that invite, they'd do it. It was Delany's only real mistake. If no one in SoCal cares about SDSU (and no one does), ESPN isn't going to ga-ga over the TV households.
Yeah I agree - it can't just be number of TV households local to the university. What about a game the entire country might watch?
No one cares about Cal, Stanford or SDSU? That’s news. And you don’t think SDSU can grow into better support with new stadium and P12 membership? I do. Check out the Aztec men’s basketball program, too!
The Aztecs need a lot of improvement in their football coaching staff Brady Hoke was an emergency hire. Had a great year now has the worst offenses in the country..(again) Not sure the Pac 12-2 can get over its superiority complex. But if they can and with the extra stadium money the Aztecs can upgrade their Football staff .It would be a win for all. I could see Hawaii or Boise as football only and Gonzaga for BB. (affiliate members) a skinflints delight. Appreciate your work John.
C’mon, man, SDSU football is on a great run. Seems to be a low blow to nail the Aztecs we’re bad offense. (The passing game is second to the worst, not the entire offense. Keep it factual.) Maybe Colorado should be booted for terrible start? And the Aztecs are 2-2.
It is 117th in total offense, one year that happens, but it has been going on now for about ten years . Its fixable hire an OC that can do it and pay him what he is worth.
to quote Kirk McKinney of the Union Tribune "San Diego State has used a clever and concise slogan to represent its annual quest for a conference championship.
In 2015, it was #Win20, and the Aztecs went on to beat Air Force for the Mountain West championship.
In 2016, it was #Win21 and they beat Wyoming for the title.
In 2017, SDSU debuted #Win22, which has been in play ever since.
Six seasons later, it’s more like #When22?"
Why not seek out smaller schools in large metro areas nation wide...
I can think of several in Florida/SE states.
"The Waiting is the hardest part," -Tom Petty. Go Aztecs!
This is Yogi Berra's day.
Haha! 50% of the game is half mental!
Well while I'm not sold on expansion...I'll give my picks and reasons, SDSU is a no brainer, and I would pair that with Fresno State...Fresno has competed well with Pac 12 schools, has a much more competitive all around athletic program. While UNLV brings flash they don't bring any substance. I say no to that. If we are looking for more than two...I say Houston, (huge market, competitive in most sports) and Texas Tech...while Lubbock is not a huge market, (Houston offsets that) they are competitive in both football and basketball and golf. Houston traveled in the CONF-USA...SO doing the same in the Pac shouldn't be an issue, and more exposure in the Pac. SMU, & Rice are not competitive and are tiny...No sports footprint whatsoever. May as well bring in the University of Loyola Marymount, or Cal State Fullerton if you want that.
You say SDSU is a no brainer, Fresno is competitive, Houston is competitive, but SMU is not competitive. You might want to look at schedules and records and who the teams were facing before making that statement. Or adjust your window to more recent than 10-20 years ago.
I'd argue that the on-field results don't matter as much as the market the programs sit in.
I'll say it again: Add SDSU yesterday. Hopefully UCLA comes to their senses. If they don't, I do think another school should be recruited, possibly 3 more. The allure of the Texas market is real, but if you told me we were getting SDSU, UNLV and Fresno, I'd take it. I know the latter two don't move the financial needle - yet. But UNLV plays in an NFL stadium and is a better academic school than many think. The football program will grow better with the cache of the Pac12, and we have seen in the past how strong their hoops can be. The sponsorship dollars available have no limit. If the Pac loses UCLA, Fresno St over time could be a suitable replacement. Especially with conference rivalries developing with Stanford, Cal and SDSU.
During the past decade, SMU has raised over $250M in athletic facilities upgrades that are now mostly completed.
During the past decade SMU Athletics has received 381 gifts of $100k or more AND 50 gifts of $1M or more (this past weekend they received $15M and $5M gifts towards FB stadium expansion.
We already have 2 NILs, one has paid out over $1M, the other pays all its FB & BB players $36k per year.
If we get a P5 invite, millions & millions will be poured into NILs….potentially in excess of $100M.
It’s called pent-up demand. SMU wants to be relevant again.
And don’t kid yourself, I’m from Dallas….TCU, Baylor and Tech want no part of SMU. They know we’ll kick their butts, just like in the old days.
If UCLA stays (possible) + SDSU is enough.
Boise really wants in, they will take a smaller cut. BSU + SDSU, OK
Want Texas? SMU and go after Houston. UH has invested nicely in recent years. Then you get Houston and Dallas.
Rice, too small. It would be like adding UP or Gonzaga.
Texas Tech is an option, tradition and alums all over the place. Tough travel (spent New Year's Eve there once on a basketball trip).
Smart man
As a USC undergraduate from 1975-79, I was shocked at the amount of students from the Central Valley of California… and even more shocked at the amount of $$$$ and affluence that they represented…Fresno and Bakersfield rivaled the So Cal Beach Communities as active members of the USC student population… and that hasn’t changed… it’s equally surprising how many of them return to the Central Valley upon graduation… there’s an identity that’s difficult to explain unless you’re from that area… Fresno State always puts out a strong product… and their fanbase travels really well… they’d be a much better addition to the PAC than they’re getting credit for…the number of TV viewers in a particular market is an important piece of the equation… but, it’s not the only piece…ucla sits in the middle of a suburban market in excess of 12 million people… and struggles to put 25,000 in the Rose Bowl for home games…it doesn’t matter how many people are in your market, if nobody cares about your product… Fresno State would carry the entire middle of California… where they have no competition for viewers… and they’d beat a majority of the PAC on a regular basis… the PAC would do well to humble themselves a bit, and quit looking down their noses at such viable candidates…Fresno would be a solid addition..
Fresno State needs a rebrand. Pat Hill has suggested calling it "California State"
The official name of the school is California State, Fresno.
No, the official name is California State University, Fresno.
Cal State Fullerton has already appropriated CSUF.
Fresno St is part of the California State University system. They may not be labeled/popularly known as CSUF, but their official name is what I wrote. Go to the school website and verify.
I’m not disputing what you wrote, I’m just amused that you can’t seem to grasp that we are both saying the same thing. When one says Cal State Fresno, the university part is implied, just like it is when someone says Cal State Fullerton or Cal State Bakersfield. It’s just that Cal State Fresno decided to be different and go by Fresno State.
Raisin Tech?! Lol
I don’t like any of them. PAC 10!
Need to replace the inventory lost with the defection of USC and UCLA. Need to add 1-2.
I bet you’ll jump on board if B10 invite comes for Ducks? No So. Cal team is a P12 death sentence.
The Big Ten isn't coming for Oregon in this cycle. It doesn't pencil out. It's not even close. Also, wondering why Oregon would want to leave given the CFP expansion. Pac-12 would be wise to add SDSU.
Agree. Old fogey here. Lol
The current PAC-12 is barely a Power Five conference. Adding any of those schools other than San Diego State will immediately downgrade the conference to a Mountain West level. What a joke.
Utah was in the MWC.
Exactly. Utah moved from MWC to P12 and succeeded in all ways. SDSU will do same.
In what way? SDSU will surpass U, OSU, WSU , ASU and A athletically and in academic in a decade of P12 membership. Academics are already better than OSU
and WSU.
A very different and arguably stronger one though.
That MWC had BYU and TCU (and Utah)
Boise was a reasonable addition, but it's been mostly all downhill for that program since CP left for Washington.
This is a short-sighted assessment. Look at what the P12 has done for the Arizona schools in terms of athletic and academic improvement. A more recent example: Utah.
It's really hard to use the AZ expansion as a comp here, as it was 40+ years ago and almost nothing about the sport and the media landscape even resembles things then.
Utah I will go with you on, but I would add that Utah stood out as a crystal clear, really great, expansion candidate when they were added. There was no hemming/hawing/debating. They were an obvious 100% choice, and none of the ones being discussed now fit that profile in my view.
I disagree. I had in depth discussion with an ASU alum on this. It may be 40 years ago, but P12 helped them big time in academics and athletics. But, yes, Utah is the more recent and pertinent comparison.
I don't think the argument that if the Pac 12 adds two MW schools, we might become the MW makes any sense to me. I think whoever is added from the MW is going to become a Pac 12 school. Picking schools that you think can rise to the occasion - that have room to grow as a school and program. I'm not worried about lowering the standards at all. Utah proves that MW schools can come and be a dog eventually.
Yeah, but this isn't just adding ... it's swapping two of the absolute flag bearers and lifetime members of the PAC ... for MW schools.
Ultimately the conference will never be what it was, no matter who gets added from what's out there, with the LA schools gone.
Colorado State is in a bad place today record-wise. But they have a new stadium and Power Five facilities. They invested a lot of money in Jay Norvell to coach this year. They've made a big football commitment. Ft. Collins is a growing city in a booming Northern Colorado footprint and 60 miles from Denver. Research dollars-wise and academics-wise, Colorado State is comparable to multiple schools already in Power Five conferences and above San Diego State, Boise State and Fresno State.
All this talk doesn’t matter if the big 10 poaches 2-4 schools. Oregon, Washington and the Bay Area schools. Who knows they might even poach Utah. This season we have the better teams. Too bad we don’t have the better conference. Oh we can thank Larry Scott for that.