This might change. If the Pac-12 becomes the Pac-14 with a number of border schools like SDSU, UNLV and Texas schools, in addition to the Arizona schools, Telemundo might pick up the Pac-12 with so many Hispanics living in the coverage area.
How can the P-12 become a 14 team league because they are no way in hell they can take teams from the big-12 because they are all tied up in media rights
John has reported facts and solid data during all of this. Whether we like it or not, chances are that he has reported what will happen.
I had to be beaten over the head to understand that what the tv contracts are coveting are market televisions. Rating are important but are a negotiating point, NOT A STARTING POINT. There are some brands that cross over that, but for the most part they are national brands that have been relevant for decades.
Example the BIG gets X for OSU being in Columbus. Then the BIG says "You are going to give us X+Y because here are the historical ratings that OSU brings." The networks know they can count on those ratings so the price goes up.
A program like Oregon is building something like that. But their y is nothing compared to OSU< BAMA<USC...etc.
I agree. I'm not sure I understand broadcast math.
Oregon was the 12th most watched in the nation in 2022. Ranks far higher in national interest than many the B1G team.
It was FOX that took away the LA teams with the B1G following along the big sled dog. If FOX is OK with destroying the Pac-10 and ESPN is married to the SEC it matters not regarding the bona fides of 'outlier' teams.
P.S. I am driving across town to Surprise to see the Beavers baseball team play the Minnesota Gophers at Noon. I always attend these early games in Surprise. And so do a LOT of Beaver fans. Beavers own this event and will outnumber the Gopher fans 20:1. And why is that? Because Beaver fans can DRIVE to see the games. The games are in the same region. Location matters! USC and UCLA will have almost no fans travel to their B1G games and vice versa. This was a terrible idea by Fox and the ADs at UCLA and USC
Media execs are paid to deliver eyeballs to advertisers. Period. There is no sentiment in their calculations. They don't care about historic alignments unless they create excitement by the watching public, ie the Civil War or other rivalry matchups like USC-UCLA, Minnesota-Wisconsin, and of course, Ohio State-Michigan. They could care less about conference alignments. But I think the USC / UCLA decision will go down in history as majorly bone-headed. Fox destroyed historic alignments thinking the eyeballs will follow. But why would marginal viewers of UCLA (average program at best) and USC care about games against Indiana and Rutgers? They won't and the ratings will show that. Twenty years from now, even the diehard USC and UCLA alums will probably care a lot less about their B1G sports teams
I so enjoy your solid, well-sourced columns on this topic, and your humorous asides are a bonus. I'll be stealing the "Telemundo, PBS and HGTV" at lunch today. With attribution, of course!
Rice - in spite of sitting in the middle of a great media market - is not a serious football or basketball program...great baseball, but irrelevant in football and basketball. Worse than Rutgers and Maryland, frankly. Academically, they would actually enhance the Pac-12 profile/reputation, but to your point - this is a media rights driven decision. I think SMU has the same or better media market and a better football tradition. Their academics are also on a par or better than most Pac-12 schools.
The only natural fit, in my opinion, is San Diego State. All others mentioned - Boise State, SMU, Fresno, Rice, UNLV - have weaknesses of some kind. It's a shame the Pac-12 presidents, chancellors and trustees are so arrogant and condescending towards BYU, because of the religious affiliation. That BYU-Utah rivalry is as big and bitter as any in the Pac-12, BYU brings tremendous football tradition, decent basketball tradition and resides in a growing media market.
Regardless, I think it's going to be San Diego State and SMU when the dust settles, although if the chancellors and presidents ever figure out the SMU acronym stands for Southern METHODIST University, they'll have a knee-jerk freakout before learning the religious component has been tamped down in recent years.
Yeah, colleges and universities have become bastions of lack of diversity in thought. Great diversity in gender, race, etc., but totally exclusive in acceptance of diverse thought...religion certainly doesn't fit or have any role today in the vast majority of academia.
Telemundo - GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL! Unfortunately, it's football and not futbol that brings in the dollars in the USA.
Slow walking the media deal is yet another faux pas by the conference. Yarmack was smart to jump ahead in line and score a so-called undervalued deal with FOX/ESPN. An all-linear deal without the risk of being a beta site for streaming college football and college basketball.
The PAC-12 had the perfect opportunity to adopt the B12 orphaned teams and to put a Power 5 conference out of existence. Once again arrogance trumped financial sense and the 'elite club' of members could be going down the drain. And what I find even more galling is that USC president Carol Folt led the opposition against taking in the B12 orphaned teams and also adding Houston.
IMO, Kansas (AAU member), Iowa State (AAU member), Houston (Tier 1 research university), Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU, and one of San Diego State, Fresno, UNLV, UTSA made far more financial sense than adding SMU.
Different revenue shares could have been negotiated including getting USC a bigger piece of the pie and keeping the Trojans in the Pac conference. UCLA is not getting an invite to the B1G without USC.
FOX and ESPN would be left to negotiate with a Power 4 conference; the B12 would be gone and not in the equation. All added teams would be in the central time zone; no need to add West Virginia.
However, the above is water over the dam. Now as the Pac-10 flounders one wonders if the conference will crater. How many times have we heard that X is not going anywhere followed shortly by X leaving town?
I'm mad as hell but what can I and other Pac-10 fans do but bend over and take it up the tailpipe?
If nothing else the Pac-10 should be adding SDSU, Fresno, Boise, and UNLV to keep B12/FOX out of the Left Coast footprint. All 4 schools would come on board for a lesser cut than the Pac-10 schools.
The Pac-12 began circling the drain when Tom Hansen agreed with SEC Commissioner Roy Kramer that CFB needed one true champion and allowed the Rose Bowl to become the equivalent of the Peach Bowl.
There was no other option that slow walking anything. Larry left a tangled mess that was only made worse by the LA schools bolting. The Pac12 networks are mostly to blame for this taking so ling to figure out. It is the failure of Scott that continues to burn. A good product, but an ultimate failure. If the league comes undone at this point I feel like it will be the network that is the straw that broke the camels back. There is value in the network, but I would guess nobody wants to pay what the league is asking.
Curious why Dennis Dodd at CBS continues to stir the pot about the Pac-12's demolition. He seems confident some of the Four Corners schools will defect to the Big 12. I thought the CFP playoff expansion poured cold water on that move?
I disagree my friend. The Pac could have held its place in line before being jumped by the B12.
Of course, had the Pac made the right business move the B12 would no longer exist.
You cannot serve two masters. Money counts or academics count. If it is academics go Ivy League, drop out of the CFB playoff and end athletic scholarships in favor of Pell Grants and 'preferred admission for athletes like we see in the Ivies.
The biggest problem that I see. The Pac is a mixture of schools willing and financially able to big-time compete and others that care mostly about academics.
The SEC sans perhaps Vandy is all in sports-wise. The B1G because of huge number of alumni and the excellent leadership of Jim Delaney who introduced Conference networks (with media partner FOX) cnd the geography, cannot screw up.
Money on the table?!? We got $43M/school this year. That's close to what the two bigs got and didn't even include individual school network money. Pac12 is getting left behind. We renewed with solid partners who will continue to show our brand to many more households than Amazon or Apple or whatever subscriber model your weak commissioner pushes. It's over. Nail, meet coffin.
The only “we” here is that all college football and basketball fans are in this together. Ecosystem is the endangered element and has divided the audience as if this were politics.
Also… you’ve fallen for the bait and switch w that distribution figure. That’s not the media rights distribution. It’s being padded w CFP and NCAA $.
Yes, “we”. There is a regionalization that is apparent with big city, coast schools trying to poach the best from “flyover country” and leave the scraps for us in the heart of America. College sports is still a place where a game in Lawrence Kansas can be the best place to be in sports on a given day. The big money entertainment execs and big money schools want to change that. So, the “we” have to fight to keep what we have, to keep some power instead of seekng it divided up and torn apart on the bargaining floor. It’s a classic David v Goliath battle.
That's the economic theory that free markets will produce competition and higher reward. The reality it is seeming, as Yormack mentioned on your podcast, they looked at market conditions with a worsening economy, more competition from other sports in 2023, and being last to the table for college sports, and probably wound up with more money.
Totally agree with you!! Many college leaders and regents tried to hold the line on academics in the 1980s and 1990s. These academic leaders, almost all PhDs themselves, lusted for the reputation of the Ivy League schools and sacrificed their sports programs (funding and grade requirements) to try and achieve that status. But public schools can never be what Ivy League schools are since taxpayers fund them and they are required to be diverse and accepting of taxpayer kids. Sports is the best chance for universities to stand out and compete in a public way (the public really does not care which university has the top accounting program). Most public schools caved to alumni pressure (alumni are people too and don't care much about accounting rankings, either) and reinvigorated their sports programs the past 20 years, including my beloved Beavers. But Cal and a few others have stood firm against top quality sports. So much the better for the teams in the Pac 12 who want to compete in sports.
Your proposal would do more than keep the Big 12 from the left coast. It would also cut the heart from the MWC contract and perhaps bring Fox/CBS back to the table.
It would be so Pac-12 to supplement SMU, which will deliver maybe 10% of the Metroplex audience, with Rice, which despite being in a market with 2.45 million households, will draw 24,500 viewers for their best game, and snub Boise St, which will deliver 516,750 of those 517,000 households, and let the Big XII also snatch Fresno St,, effectively ceding the entire central and east California audience.
Fast forward to 2024, and ESPN, which also has the Big XII, will be alternating the Broncos and Bulldogs on Saturday night's ESPN primary window, while the Pac's #Pac12onalternatechannels game will alternate between ESPN2 & ESPNU, depending on whether BYU is home that weekend, and the PAC will garner ~1/3 of the viewership the Big XII does on their good weekends.
But why? Everybody already had ESPN/ABC & Fox/FS. No one there added the B1G Network to their premium sports package for Rutgers & Maryland.
I agree, the large market used to matter if/when you could get new subscribers by moving into a market and getting your carrier added to a bundle that everyone pays for, as that translated into real dollars. It might have still mattered when they were added. But that no longer happens. It's become a factor that no longer matters.
Advertisers pay for reach & market penetration, and paying more to advertise on a channel no one gets, or a game no one will be watching, doesn't do them any good, and isn't going to happen.
By gaining the LA market, some of the USC/UCLA audience will watch other B1G games because it's relevant to their teams. And the B1G will get their advertising in front of a good number of USC & UCLA followers from other markets they have limited penetration in previously. So the conference still gets real gains.
But the Wisconsin-Ohio St game did not gain any additional relevance in Newark because Rutgers joined the B1G. There is a non-trivial B1G audience and following and alumni base in the east, but they were already following the B1G, and still will be if Rutgers suddenly moves to C-USA.
Yuck. I'd rather stay with 10. I think that's smarter.
But if you have to add 4 for inventory reasons, go with UNLV/SDSU and SMU/UTSA. Natural travel partners and big markets (or big casinos).
Of course, the truly big thinker will figure out how to blow up the ACC. Surely you can convince 8 ACC teams to vote against the GOR. Those teams are earning peanuts right now, and they're locked into that for another decade. It just takes 8 of them with a good landing spot to bail, and Amazon/CBS can provide that landing spot with the top 8 of the Pac. Control both coasts with 16 teams worth of inventory, including various blue bloods, huge markets, and recent NY6/playoff teams.
The medium thinker will figure out how to blow up the Big12. They haven't signed their GOR yet, right? I still think 4 of those teams would be smart to bail if an offer comes.
The small thinker will just add 4 MWC teams and hope for the best.
My God you have no clue. Figure out how to blow up the ACC??? There is no blowing up the ACC. You think FSU and Clemson don't want out of the GOR? 8 teams voting against the GOR doesnt void it. Where did you get that nonsense?
And yes... the B12 did sign the GOR. Brett Yormark confirmed that just this week on the pod with Wilner and Canzano.
I've read that a majority of ACC teams can vote to dissolve the conference and escape the GOR. It hasn't happened, of course, because only 3 teams would be guaranteed a better situation. If you guarantee a better situation for 8 of the teams though...
Of course, if I'm wrong and it is actually impossible to vote the GOR away, then this is even more of an impossible dream than it already was. In that case, I'd still say we just stay with 10. We'd be on par with the Big12 and ACC as secondary power conferences.
I don’t even think you’d have to blow up the acc to make it work. Drop down to 8 games in conference and schedule some sort of side gig with say 1- 2 games football per year vs acc and more for basketball. Could potentially even have each conference champ meet for a game but with the new playoff not sure if that’s as good of an idea. Someone smarter can come up with a good plan.
That conference contains great teams and massive markets. You play 9 games, your 7 coastal rivals plus two from the other coast. The two East vs West weekends each year 1are huge marketing events.
If anybody is poaching blue bloods from ACC it will be B1G or SEC. As Wilner pontificated a while ago, the P5 conferences are probably pretty stable, except potentially bumping up G5 schools, until the next media rights round in late 2020s. At that point B1G will likely be looking southeast rather than west.
I'm not talking about poaching though. I'm talking about the creation of a new conference. And even if some poaching from the big boys occurs along the way, I'd still rather merge the best teams left from the Pac and ACC than simply add MWC/AAC teams. How many ACC teams would really be poached by the Big10 or SEC? Two or three? That leaves good teams in good markets, and an East/West coast conference would instantly be a clear #3 after the Big10 and SEC. It works competetively, it works in media markets, and it naturally works well from a scheduling/travel perspective.
It's just a dream, but it's a good dream. Better then a dream of landing the SDSU Aztecs.
I see. I could see that. My assumption is when feasible Miami, Florida State, and Clemson will be trying to get into B1G and SEC. And I'd bet the B1G would be receptive to get into southeast. But, as you say, there's still value in other members of ACC.
If the ACC was blown up, then some combination of UNC, NCST, VT, FSU, UVa and Clem end up in the SEC. SEC would love to get into NC and VA. So PAC would be left with the likes of BC, Pitt, Wake, Duke, etc. IDK
Maybe. Probably. Depends on how it's blown up. Let's consider that possibility. Blow up the ACC, and UNC, FSU, and UVa are gone to the SEC or Big10. But that's where it would end. They ain't gonna add anyone else. Maybe Clemson or Syracuse, but I don't think so.
That would still leave us with
East: Clemson, Duke, Pitt, Syracuse, NCState, GT, Louisville, and Miami
I like Fresno State, but UNLV is the larger TV market and Las Vegas is growing like wildfire. Maybe pick up Fresno State and add San Jose State for another CA pair.
Depends on how you define market. The UNLV DMA is larger than Fresno but that ignores adjacent DMA’s. Fresno today spans Bakersfield to Modesto. That crosses 3 DMA’s: Bakersfield, Fresno, and the southern part of Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto.
A P5 Fresno can reasonably expand into Stockton and capture the entire San Joaquin Valley which is 4.2M people. The Big12 thinks they can ultimately expand into Sacramento which adds another 2.4M people. 6.6M people is larger than Missouri.
In the case of UNLV, nothing but Cactus is an adjacent market. Cal’s arrogance also comes into play here. Cal will say they own the Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto DMA. They don’t. Living in Sac, I can say Cal is a non-entity. The 49ers, who used to camp in Rocklin, would be the competition Fresno would have to overcome.
I still have a difficult time seeing the post UT/OU Big 12 as a power conference on a level with the ACC, B1G, and SEC. Right now I see the Pac as a tweener.
Agreed. Living here in DFW, It's UT, OU and the other B12 teams as it relates to CFB. Basketball is a bit different but their tv contract was based more on Fox/ESPN having an inventory of games IMO. Both networks will try to keep them propped up as a P5 conference but I dont see it surviving past the next tv deal. Just my .02cents. Heck, more than half those teams were reaching out to other conferences when UT/OU announced they were leaving. Which is where the Pac12 made a huge mistake in not knowing the environment. They should have swooped in, taken OSU, TCU, Tx Tech, and UHouston and called it a day. Go to negotiating table with games in central, mountain and pacific time zones and adding several major metropolitan markets with viewers. Maybe it would have helped SC and UCLA to stay....
Right, and offer unequal revenue sharing at least for post-season performance. And perhaps Kliavkoff should have been a little more hands-on with USC, as they were the cash cow.
I've always heard in the B1G, a commissioner listens to all the schools, and then calls OSU to hear how they want to proceed.
I think you are correct. Except that last part. The Pac 12 was in a position to take Texas schools and cripple the big 12 a couple years ago. USC put the stop to expanding into Texas. The damage the SOCAL schools delivered to the conference is far more than just leaving. Now some would like you to believe the shoe is on the other foot.
The shoe is off on both feet. Can we find a cobbler to put together something that will work to keep the Pac-10 a shoe-in not to be totally financially behind the B1G and the SEC?
It will be interesting to see what happenes to that conference without OU and UT. I sure seems like the SEC completely owns the state of Texas. I'm sure some alumni and some locals will still follow Baylor and Texas Tech, but the state will be looking at the SEC for the most part.
Big 12 and Pac 10 are tweeners between G5 and B1G/SEC, imo. But Big 12 looks more solid, has a pro-active commissioner and school presidents, and has a heavy footprint in Texas which is the only FB recruiting hotbed west of Mississippi. In the last recruiting cycle the state of Georgia had 50% more blue chips than CA. And TX and FL had at least double if I recall correctly.
As much as I hate to say it, if the Big 10 is not an option for the programs I care about (UU, OSU, UO), then I hope they move to Big12.
In basketball the Big 12 will be fine and competitive with anyone. Football is a different story. The conference is losing two of the top eight or so historical football programs and replacing them with what feels like C-USA programs. The Pac still has Oregon, Washington, and Utah. While they haven't won national titles in recent memory my recollection is that Oregon has played for two and Washington has made the playoff.
I was looking at one recruiting service's ranking of states on the number of prospects in the top 247 (guess whose rating this was) for the last cycle. Traditional SEC states were 1, 3, 5, and 6 (FL, GA, AL, and LA) with TX (a newer SEC state) checking in at #2. My guess, and it's only a guess, is the SEC states are even more heavily concentrated with defensive linemen. Someone (Phil Knight) establishing a west coast IMG Academy type institution would give more elite players exposure to schools west of the Rockies.
These two leagues need to schedule more games with the other big three conferences and win their fair share of those games. That's how Bobby Bowden built FSU into a power.
I'd like to see it. I watched more Pac-12 football last year than I ever have and thoroughly enjoyed it.
Pretty funny how Utah and TCU were Mountain West schools you all looked down upon 20 years ago. Now they are better teams and brands than maybe Oregon. Reading this thread the more things change with the snooty old school crowd the more they stay the same.
I'll speak to what I know best - Alabama. This season they host Texas and go to USF. In 2024 they go to Wisconsin and host USF. In 2025 they p[lay at FSU and host Wisconsin. In 2026 it's at WVU and hosting FSU. In 2027 they're at Oho State and host WVU. In 2028 they're at Oklahoma State and hosting Ohio State. 2029 - at Notre Dame and hosting Oklahoma State. You get the picture. After 2029 they have home and homes with Georgia Tech, Boston College, Minnesota, Arizona, and Virginia Tech.
Yeah, a bunch of nobodies and they won't leave the south.
Not so much tweeners. Pac 12 had the chance to steal some big 12 schools a couple years ago. (or so pac honks will tell you) Now the Big 12 has the chance to steal some pac schools (or so the b12 honks will tell you). The truth is that the BIG and SEC have elevated themselves to be the PWR 2. The ACC is the most stable of the next 3. At least for now.
What we are all waiting to find out if somebody goes the way of the BIGEAST.
In all honesty the pac and the b12 are closer to mirror images than anything else.
As a Fresno fan, I can’t imagine the PAC-12 Presidents handing Fresno State a better model.
1) Reject the San Joaquin Valley so the 4.2M people in it clearly get the message what the PAC thinks of them.
2) Sign a streaming deal with Amazon so to watch SMU/Oregon at 3:30 PST versus Alabama/Texas or USC/Penn State I have to switch to streaming
3) Have that Alabama/Texas (ABC) and UCF/Houston (ESPN) as a lead-in to the 7:00 ESPN game of Fresno/TCU and have the mouse talking heads promote the game and Tedford from 4:00 to 7:00.
4) meanwhile the 7:30 competition from the PAC, where I have to switch to streaming is likely Oregon State versus UNLV....
I can only pray as a Fresno fan that this scenario plays out as Canzano has outlined. I can’t even imagine a better one.
"Telemundo, PBS and HGTV are also not involved, in case anyone is wondering."
Well that is truly a disappointment. I was really looking forward to HGTV stadium seating hacks and DIY tailgating shows! Arrghhhh!!!!
lol, lol,
This might change. If the Pac-12 becomes the Pac-14 with a number of border schools like SDSU, UNLV and Texas schools, in addition to the Arizona schools, Telemundo might pick up the Pac-12 with so many Hispanics living in the coverage area.
How can the P-12 become a 14 team league because they are no way in hell they can take teams from the big-12 because they are all tied up in media rights
John has reported facts and solid data during all of this. Whether we like it or not, chances are that he has reported what will happen.
I had to be beaten over the head to understand that what the tv contracts are coveting are market televisions. Rating are important but are a negotiating point, NOT A STARTING POINT. There are some brands that cross over that, but for the most part they are national brands that have been relevant for decades.
Example the BIG gets X for OSU being in Columbus. Then the BIG says "You are going to give us X+Y because here are the historical ratings that OSU brings." The networks know they can count on those ratings so the price goes up.
A program like Oregon is building something like that. But their y is nothing compared to OSU< BAMA<USC...etc.
I agree. I'm not sure I understand broadcast math.
Oregon was the 12th most watched in the nation in 2022. Ranks far higher in national interest than many the B1G team.
It was FOX that took away the LA teams with the B1G following along the big sled dog. If FOX is OK with destroying the Pac-10 and ESPN is married to the SEC it matters not regarding the bona fides of 'outlier' teams.
P.S. I am driving across town to Surprise to see the Beavers baseball team play the Minnesota Gophers at Noon. I always attend these early games in Surprise. And so do a LOT of Beaver fans. Beavers own this event and will outnumber the Gopher fans 20:1. And why is that? Because Beaver fans can DRIVE to see the games. The games are in the same region. Location matters! USC and UCLA will have almost no fans travel to their B1G games and vice versa. This was a terrible idea by Fox and the ADs at UCLA and USC
Media execs are paid to deliver eyeballs to advertisers. Period. There is no sentiment in their calculations. They don't care about historic alignments unless they create excitement by the watching public, ie the Civil War or other rivalry matchups like USC-UCLA, Minnesota-Wisconsin, and of course, Ohio State-Michigan. They could care less about conference alignments. But I think the USC / UCLA decision will go down in history as majorly bone-headed. Fox destroyed historic alignments thinking the eyeballs will follow. But why would marginal viewers of UCLA (average program at best) and USC care about games against Indiana and Rutgers? They won't and the ratings will show that. Twenty years from now, even the diehard USC and UCLA alums will probably care a lot less about their B1G sports teams
I so enjoy your solid, well-sourced columns on this topic, and your humorous asides are a bonus. I'll be stealing the "Telemundo, PBS and HGTV" at lunch today. With attribution, of course!
Rice - in spite of sitting in the middle of a great media market - is not a serious football or basketball program...great baseball, but irrelevant in football and basketball. Worse than Rutgers and Maryland, frankly. Academically, they would actually enhance the Pac-12 profile/reputation, but to your point - this is a media rights driven decision. I think SMU has the same or better media market and a better football tradition. Their academics are also on a par or better than most Pac-12 schools.
The only natural fit, in my opinion, is San Diego State. All others mentioned - Boise State, SMU, Fresno, Rice, UNLV - have weaknesses of some kind. It's a shame the Pac-12 presidents, chancellors and trustees are so arrogant and condescending towards BYU, because of the religious affiliation. That BYU-Utah rivalry is as big and bitter as any in the Pac-12, BYU brings tremendous football tradition, decent basketball tradition and resides in a growing media market.
Regardless, I think it's going to be San Diego State and SMU when the dust settles, although if the chancellors and presidents ever figure out the SMU acronym stands for Southern METHODIST University, they'll have a knee-jerk freakout before learning the religious component has been tamped down in recent years.
SMU has turned away from church, just like USC and Wake Forest and many before them. Why has Rice been so bad? Poor management? No commitment to
Athletics?
Yeah, colleges and universities have become bastions of lack of diversity in thought. Great diversity in gender, race, etc., but totally exclusive in acceptance of diverse thought...religion certainly doesn't fit or have any role today in the vast majority of academia.
Telemundo - GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL! Unfortunately, it's football and not futbol that brings in the dollars in the USA.
Slow walking the media deal is yet another faux pas by the conference. Yarmack was smart to jump ahead in line and score a so-called undervalued deal with FOX/ESPN. An all-linear deal without the risk of being a beta site for streaming college football and college basketball.
The PAC-12 had the perfect opportunity to adopt the B12 orphaned teams and to put a Power 5 conference out of existence. Once again arrogance trumped financial sense and the 'elite club' of members could be going down the drain. And what I find even more galling is that USC president Carol Folt led the opposition against taking in the B12 orphaned teams and also adding Houston.
IMO, Kansas (AAU member), Iowa State (AAU member), Houston (Tier 1 research university), Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU, and one of San Diego State, Fresno, UNLV, UTSA made far more financial sense than adding SMU.
Different revenue shares could have been negotiated including getting USC a bigger piece of the pie and keeping the Trojans in the Pac conference. UCLA is not getting an invite to the B1G without USC.
FOX and ESPN would be left to negotiate with a Power 4 conference; the B12 would be gone and not in the equation. All added teams would be in the central time zone; no need to add West Virginia.
However, the above is water over the dam. Now as the Pac-10 flounders one wonders if the conference will crater. How many times have we heard that X is not going anywhere followed shortly by X leaving town?
I'm mad as hell but what can I and other Pac-10 fans do but bend over and take it up the tailpipe?
If nothing else the Pac-10 should be adding SDSU, Fresno, Boise, and UNLV to keep B12/FOX out of the Left Coast footprint. All 4 schools would come on board for a lesser cut than the Pac-10 schools.
The Pac-12 began circling the drain when Tom Hansen agreed with SEC Commissioner Roy Kramer that CFB needed one true champion and allowed the Rose Bowl to become the equivalent of the Peach Bowl.
There was no other option that slow walking anything. Larry left a tangled mess that was only made worse by the LA schools bolting. The Pac12 networks are mostly to blame for this taking so ling to figure out. It is the failure of Scott that continues to burn. A good product, but an ultimate failure. If the league comes undone at this point I feel like it will be the network that is the straw that broke the camels back. There is value in the network, but I would guess nobody wants to pay what the league is asking.
Nothing coming undone… but you’re right about the tangle.
Curious why Dennis Dodd at CBS continues to stir the pot about the Pac-12's demolition. He seems confident some of the Four Corners schools will defect to the Big 12. I thought the CFP playoff expansion poured cold water on that move?
I disagree my friend. The Pac could have held its place in line before being jumped by the B12.
Of course, had the Pac made the right business move the B12 would no longer exist.
You cannot serve two masters. Money counts or academics count. If it is academics go Ivy League, drop out of the CFB playoff and end athletic scholarships in favor of Pell Grants and 'preferred admission for athletes like we see in the Ivies.
The biggest problem that I see. The Pac is a mixture of schools willing and financially able to big-time compete and others that care mostly about academics.
The SEC sans perhaps Vandy is all in sports-wise. The B1G because of huge number of alumni and the excellent leadership of Jim Delaney who introduced Conference networks (with media partner FOX) cnd the geography, cannot screw up.
Big 12 simply renewed w partners. It didn’t want to wait to go to market. Left some $$ on the table.
"Left some $$ on the table." ouch!
Money on the table?!? We got $43M/school this year. That's close to what the two bigs got and didn't even include individual school network money. Pac12 is getting left behind. We renewed with solid partners who will continue to show our brand to many more households than Amazon or Apple or whatever subscriber model your weak commissioner pushes. It's over. Nail, meet coffin.
“We?” 😂🤣
The only “we” here is that all college football and basketball fans are in this together. Ecosystem is the endangered element and has divided the audience as if this were politics.
Also… you’ve fallen for the bait and switch w that distribution figure. That’s not the media rights distribution. It’s being padded w CFP and NCAA $.
Yes, “we”. There is a regionalization that is apparent with big city, coast schools trying to poach the best from “flyover country” and leave the scraps for us in the heart of America. College sports is still a place where a game in Lawrence Kansas can be the best place to be in sports on a given day. The big money entertainment execs and big money schools want to change that. So, the “we” have to fight to keep what we have, to keep some power instead of seekng it divided up and torn apart on the bargaining floor. It’s a classic David v Goliath battle.
Short run $. Long run?
That's the economic theory that free markets will produce competition and higher reward. The reality it is seeming, as Yormack mentioned on your podcast, they looked at market conditions with a worsening economy, more competition from other sports in 2023, and being last to the table for college sports, and probably wound up with more money.
Totally agree with you!! Many college leaders and regents tried to hold the line on academics in the 1980s and 1990s. These academic leaders, almost all PhDs themselves, lusted for the reputation of the Ivy League schools and sacrificed their sports programs (funding and grade requirements) to try and achieve that status. But public schools can never be what Ivy League schools are since taxpayers fund them and they are required to be diverse and accepting of taxpayer kids. Sports is the best chance for universities to stand out and compete in a public way (the public really does not care which university has the top accounting program). Most public schools caved to alumni pressure (alumni are people too and don't care much about accounting rankings, either) and reinvigorated their sports programs the past 20 years, including my beloved Beavers. But Cal and a few others have stood firm against top quality sports. So much the better for the teams in the Pac 12 who want to compete in sports.
You got that right Brian...
Your proposal would do more than keep the Big 12 from the left coast. It would also cut the heart from the MWC contract and perhaps bring Fox/CBS back to the table.
It would be so Pac-12 to supplement SMU, which will deliver maybe 10% of the Metroplex audience, with Rice, which despite being in a market with 2.45 million households, will draw 24,500 viewers for their best game, and snub Boise St, which will deliver 516,750 of those 517,000 households, and let the Big XII also snatch Fresno St,, effectively ceding the entire central and east California audience.
Fast forward to 2024, and ESPN, which also has the Big XII, will be alternating the Broncos and Bulldogs on Saturday night's ESPN primary window, while the Pac's #Pac12onalternatechannels game will alternate between ESPN2 & ESPNU, depending on whether BYU is home that weekend, and the PAC will garner ~1/3 of the viewership the Big XII does on their good weekends.
See: Big Ten adds Rutgers and Maryland. Why? Not for viewership or ratings… but because of TV homes.
But why? Everybody already had ESPN/ABC & Fox/FS. No one there added the B1G Network to their premium sports package for Rutgers & Maryland.
I agree, the large market used to matter if/when you could get new subscribers by moving into a market and getting your carrier added to a bundle that everyone pays for, as that translated into real dollars. It might have still mattered when they were added. But that no longer happens. It's become a factor that no longer matters.
Advertisers pay for reach & market penetration, and paying more to advertise on a channel no one gets, or a game no one will be watching, doesn't do them any good, and isn't going to happen.
By gaining the LA market, some of the USC/UCLA audience will watch other B1G games because it's relevant to their teams. And the B1G will get their advertising in front of a good number of USC & UCLA followers from other markets they have limited penetration in previously. So the conference still gets real gains.
But the Wisconsin-Ohio St game did not gain any additional relevance in Newark because Rutgers joined the B1G. There is a non-trivial B1G audience and following and alumni base in the east, but they were already following the B1G, and still will be if Rutgers suddenly moves to C-USA.
Good take but Rice is a non-entity in the Houston market and not competitive in CFB/CBB. Financially UTSA would be a far better addition.
It's now financial life and death for the Pac-10 and academics be damned.
That's Andy's point. The pompous P12 presidents will choose Rice for their academic prestige.
HGTV should be involved... if ever we needed a remodel, it's now!
I like it
• Telemundo, PBS and HGTV are also not involved, in case anyone is wondering.
Love this!
I guess we have to report that. Sorry PBS.
I heard the Food Network was interested and Guy Fieri would be calling the games.
Yuck. I'd rather stay with 10. I think that's smarter.
But if you have to add 4 for inventory reasons, go with UNLV/SDSU and SMU/UTSA. Natural travel partners and big markets (or big casinos).
Of course, the truly big thinker will figure out how to blow up the ACC. Surely you can convince 8 ACC teams to vote against the GOR. Those teams are earning peanuts right now, and they're locked into that for another decade. It just takes 8 of them with a good landing spot to bail, and Amazon/CBS can provide that landing spot with the top 8 of the Pac. Control both coasts with 16 teams worth of inventory, including various blue bloods, huge markets, and recent NY6/playoff teams.
The medium thinker will figure out how to blow up the Big12. They haven't signed their GOR yet, right? I still think 4 of those teams would be smart to bail if an offer comes.
The small thinker will just add 4 MWC teams and hope for the best.
My God you have no clue. Figure out how to blow up the ACC??? There is no blowing up the ACC. You think FSU and Clemson don't want out of the GOR? 8 teams voting against the GOR doesnt void it. Where did you get that nonsense?
And yes... the B12 did sign the GOR. Brett Yormark confirmed that just this week on the pod with Wilner and Canzano.
I've read that a majority of ACC teams can vote to dissolve the conference and escape the GOR. It hasn't happened, of course, because only 3 teams would be guaranteed a better situation. If you guarantee a better situation for 8 of the teams though...
Of course, if I'm wrong and it is actually impossible to vote the GOR away, then this is even more of an impossible dream than it already was. In that case, I'd still say we just stay with 10. We'd be on par with the Big12 and ACC as secondary power conferences.
I don’t even think you’d have to blow up the acc to make it work. Drop down to 8 games in conference and schedule some sort of side gig with say 1- 2 games football per year vs acc and more for basketball. Could potentially even have each conference champ meet for a game but with the new playoff not sure if that’s as good of an idea. Someone smarter can come up with a good plan.
The ditching of a conference game will gash attendance and add pay game costs and travel expense, and each campus will see a 7 figure budget hit.
Sure, an "alliance" could benefit both conferences, but I don't think that would be as attractive to Amazon/CBS as an actual conference consisting of:
East: Clemson, FSU, UNC, UVa, Pitt, Syracuse, Miami, Duke
West: Oregon, UW, Cal, Stanford, Utah, CU, AU, ASU
That conference contains great teams and massive markets. You play 9 games, your 7 coastal rivals plus two from the other coast. The two East vs West weekends each year 1are huge marketing events.
That has to be the first time both "Syracuse" and "huge marketing event" has ever appeared in the same statement/article/post.
If anybody is poaching blue bloods from ACC it will be B1G or SEC. As Wilner pontificated a while ago, the P5 conferences are probably pretty stable, except potentially bumping up G5 schools, until the next media rights round in late 2020s. At that point B1G will likely be looking southeast rather than west.
I'm not talking about poaching though. I'm talking about the creation of a new conference. And even if some poaching from the big boys occurs along the way, I'd still rather merge the best teams left from the Pac and ACC than simply add MWC/AAC teams. How many ACC teams would really be poached by the Big10 or SEC? Two or three? That leaves good teams in good markets, and an East/West coast conference would instantly be a clear #3 after the Big10 and SEC. It works competetively, it works in media markets, and it naturally works well from a scheduling/travel perspective.
It's just a dream, but it's a good dream. Better then a dream of landing the SDSU Aztecs.
Oh, it's sancho again... You'll be lucky to have us. Go Aztecs!
I see. I could see that. My assumption is when feasible Miami, Florida State, and Clemson will be trying to get into B1G and SEC. And I'd bet the B1G would be receptive to get into southeast. But, as you say, there's still value in other members of ACC.
Who will lead this effort? This would take schools going outside the conference and the Commissioner. What Pac-10 president's have the sack to do so?
CORRECT! And I believe it will happen before 2036 when the ACC's terrible media agreement expires.
If the ACC was blown up, then some combination of UNC, NCST, VT, FSU, UVa and Clem end up in the SEC. SEC would love to get into NC and VA. So PAC would be left with the likes of BC, Pitt, Wake, Duke, etc. IDK
5 AAU member schools - Pitt, UVA, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech to the B1G? (Pitt? Could be vetoed by Pann St.)
Non-AAU members Va Tech, NC St, Clemson, Louisville, FSU, Miami to the SEC.
Once an AAU member Syracuse may be to the B1G. BC, Wake, do not make the cut.
Maybe. Probably. Depends on how it's blown up. Let's consider that possibility. Blow up the ACC, and UNC, FSU, and UVa are gone to the SEC or Big10. But that's where it would end. They ain't gonna add anyone else. Maybe Clemson or Syracuse, but I don't think so.
That would still leave us with
East: Clemson, Duke, Pitt, Syracuse, NCState, GT, Louisville, and Miami
West: Oregon, UW, Utah, CU, ASU, Zona, Cal, Stanford
That's still a far better outcome than adding SDSU and SMU and hoping for $30 million per year.
Yawn...
To me, SDSU is a no-brainer, but after that...?
UNLV is the obvious pair to SDSU
Actually Fresno is the obvious pair but we get why the PAC wouldn’t add them. And yes for years Fresno High Schools competed in the Southern Section.
I like Fresno State, but UNLV is the larger TV market and Las Vegas is growing like wildfire. Maybe pick up Fresno State and add San Jose State for another CA pair.
Depends on how you define market. The UNLV DMA is larger than Fresno but that ignores adjacent DMA’s. Fresno today spans Bakersfield to Modesto. That crosses 3 DMA’s: Bakersfield, Fresno, and the southern part of Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto.
A P5 Fresno can reasonably expand into Stockton and capture the entire San Joaquin Valley which is 4.2M people. The Big12 thinks they can ultimately expand into Sacramento which adds another 2.4M people. 6.6M people is larger than Missouri.
In the case of UNLV, nothing but Cactus is an adjacent market. Cal’s arrogance also comes into play here. Cal will say they own the Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto DMA. They don’t. Living in Sac, I can say Cal is a non-entity. The 49ers, who used to camp in Rocklin, would be the competition Fresno would have to overcome.
I still have a difficult time seeing the post UT/OU Big 12 as a power conference on a level with the ACC, B1G, and SEC. Right now I see the Pac as a tweener.
Agreed. Living here in DFW, It's UT, OU and the other B12 teams as it relates to CFB. Basketball is a bit different but their tv contract was based more on Fox/ESPN having an inventory of games IMO. Both networks will try to keep them propped up as a P5 conference but I dont see it surviving past the next tv deal. Just my .02cents. Heck, more than half those teams were reaching out to other conferences when UT/OU announced they were leaving. Which is where the Pac12 made a huge mistake in not knowing the environment. They should have swooped in, taken OSU, TCU, Tx Tech, and UHouston and called it a day. Go to negotiating table with games in central, mountain and pacific time zones and adding several major metropolitan markets with viewers. Maybe it would have helped SC and UCLA to stay....
Right, and offer unequal revenue sharing at least for post-season performance. And perhaps Kliavkoff should have been a little more hands-on with USC, as they were the cash cow.
I've always heard in the B1G, a commissioner listens to all the schools, and then calls OSU to hear how they want to proceed.
I think you are correct. Except that last part. The Pac 12 was in a position to take Texas schools and cripple the big 12 a couple years ago. USC put the stop to expanding into Texas. The damage the SOCAL schools delivered to the conference is far more than just leaving. Now some would like you to believe the shoe is on the other foot.
The shoe is off on both feet. Can we find a cobbler to put together something that will work to keep the Pac-10 a shoe-in not to be totally financially behind the B1G and the SEC?
It will be interesting to see what happenes to that conference without OU and UT. I sure seems like the SEC completely owns the state of Texas. I'm sure some alumni and some locals will still follow Baylor and Texas Tech, but the state will be looking at the SEC for the most part.
Unfortunately, I can only give this spot on take one heart.
Big 12 and Pac 10 are tweeners between G5 and B1G/SEC, imo. But Big 12 looks more solid, has a pro-active commissioner and school presidents, and has a heavy footprint in Texas which is the only FB recruiting hotbed west of Mississippi. In the last recruiting cycle the state of Georgia had 50% more blue chips than CA. And TX and FL had at least double if I recall correctly.
As much as I hate to say it, if the Big 10 is not an option for the programs I care about (UU, OSU, UO), then I hope they move to Big12.
In basketball the Big 12 will be fine and competitive with anyone. Football is a different story. The conference is losing two of the top eight or so historical football programs and replacing them with what feels like C-USA programs. The Pac still has Oregon, Washington, and Utah. While they haven't won national titles in recent memory my recollection is that Oregon has played for two and Washington has made the playoff.
I was looking at one recruiting service's ranking of states on the number of prospects in the top 247 (guess whose rating this was) for the last cycle. Traditional SEC states were 1, 3, 5, and 6 (FL, GA, AL, and LA) with TX (a newer SEC state) checking in at #2. My guess, and it's only a guess, is the SEC states are even more heavily concentrated with defensive linemen. Someone (Phil Knight) establishing a west coast IMG Academy type institution would give more elite players exposure to schools west of the Rockies.
These two leagues need to schedule more games with the other big three conferences and win their fair share of those games. That's how Bobby Bowden built FSU into a power.
I'd like to see it. I watched more Pac-12 football last year than I ever have and thoroughly enjoyed it.
Pretty funny how Utah and TCU were Mountain West schools you all looked down upon 20 years ago. Now they are better teams and brands than maybe Oregon. Reading this thread the more things change with the snooty old school crowd the more they stay the same.
That will never happen. BiG and SEC are creating a world where they play conference, nobodies and post season games.
I'll speak to what I know best - Alabama. This season they host Texas and go to USF. In 2024 they go to Wisconsin and host USF. In 2025 they p[lay at FSU and host Wisconsin. In 2026 it's at WVU and hosting FSU. In 2027 they're at Oho State and host WVU. In 2028 they're at Oklahoma State and hosting Ohio State. 2029 - at Notre Dame and hosting Oklahoma State. You get the picture. After 2029 they have home and homes with Georgia Tech, Boston College, Minnesota, Arizona, and Virginia Tech.
Yeah, a bunch of nobodies and they won't leave the south.
Not so much tweeners. Pac 12 had the chance to steal some big 12 schools a couple years ago. (or so pac honks will tell you) Now the Big 12 has the chance to steal some pac schools (or so the b12 honks will tell you). The truth is that the BIG and SEC have elevated themselves to be the PWR 2. The ACC is the most stable of the next 3. At least for now.
What we are all waiting to find out if somebody goes the way of the BIGEAST.
In all honesty the pac and the b12 are closer to mirror images than anything else.
Made $43M/school last year. The ACC (and definitely the Pac12) would kill for those numbers right now.
And added 4 teams lickety-split. BYU. Cincy. Houston and UCF.
Meanwhile, the 'elite club' did nada.
As a Fresno fan, I can’t imagine the PAC-12 Presidents handing Fresno State a better model.
1) Reject the San Joaquin Valley so the 4.2M people in it clearly get the message what the PAC thinks of them.
2) Sign a streaming deal with Amazon so to watch SMU/Oregon at 3:30 PST versus Alabama/Texas or USC/Penn State I have to switch to streaming
3) Have that Alabama/Texas (ABC) and UCF/Houston (ESPN) as a lead-in to the 7:00 ESPN game of Fresno/TCU and have the mouse talking heads promote the game and Tedford from 4:00 to 7:00.
4) meanwhile the 7:30 competition from the PAC, where I have to switch to streaming is likely Oregon State versus UNLV....
I can only pray as a Fresno fan that this scenario plays out as Canzano has outlined. I can’t even imagine a better one.
John C, another great take.
Today for the Pac-10 it's about survival and not 'exclusive club' academics.
I hope Oregon state is actively developing worst case scenario options. Hope for the best, guard against the worst.
This conference will be fine. But OSU and everyone should always be thinking.