John has reported facts and solid data during all of this. Whether we like it or not, chances are that he has reported what will happen.
I had to be beaten over the head to understand that what the tv contracts are coveting are market televisions. Rating are important but are a negotiating point, NOT A STARTING POINT. There are some brands that cross over that, but for the most part they are national brands that have been relevant for decades.
Example the BIG gets X for OSU being in Columbus. Then the BIG says "You are going to give us X+Y because here are the historical ratings that OSU brings." The networks know they can count on those ratings so the price goes up.
A program like Oregon is building something like that. But their y is nothing compared to OSU< BAMA<USC...etc.
I so enjoy your solid, well-sourced columns on this topic, and your humorous asides are a bonus. I'll be stealing the "Telemundo, PBS and HGTV" at lunch today. With attribution, of course!
Rice - in spite of sitting in the middle of a great media market - is not a serious football or basketball program...great baseball, but irrelevant in football and basketball. Worse than Rutgers and Maryland, frankly. Academically, they would actually enhance the Pac-12 profile/reputation, but to your point - this is a media rights driven decision. I think SMU has the same or better media market and a better football tradition. Their academics are also on a par or better than most Pac-12 schools.
The only natural fit, in my opinion, is San Diego State. All others mentioned - Boise State, SMU, Fresno, Rice, UNLV - have weaknesses of some kind. It's a shame the Pac-12 presidents, chancellors and trustees are so arrogant and condescending towards BYU, because of the religious affiliation. That BYU-Utah rivalry is as big and bitter as any in the Pac-12, BYU brings tremendous football tradition, decent basketball tradition and resides in a growing media market.
Regardless, I think it's going to be San Diego State and SMU when the dust settles, although if the chancellors and presidents ever figure out the SMU acronym stands for Southern METHODIST University, they'll have a knee-jerk freakout before learning the religious component has been tamped down in recent years.
Telemundo - GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL! Unfortunately, it's football and not futbol that brings in the dollars in the USA.
Slow walking the media deal is yet another faux pas by the conference. Yarmack was smart to jump ahead in line and score a so-called undervalued deal with FOX/ESPN. An all-linear deal without the risk of being a beta site for streaming college football and college basketball.
The PAC-12 had the perfect opportunity to adopt the B12 orphaned teams and to put a Power 5 conference out of existence. Once again arrogance trumped financial sense and the 'elite club' of members could be going down the drain. And what I find even more galling is that USC president Carol Folt led the opposition against taking in the B12 orphaned teams and also adding Houston.
IMO, Kansas (AAU member), Iowa State (AAU member), Houston (Tier 1 research university), Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU, and one of San Diego State, Fresno, UNLV, UTSA made far more financial sense than adding SMU.
Different revenue shares could have been negotiated including getting USC a bigger piece of the pie and keeping the Trojans in the Pac conference. UCLA is not getting an invite to the B1G without USC.
FOX and ESPN would be left to negotiate with a Power 4 conference; the B12 would be gone and not in the equation. All added teams would be in the central time zone; no need to add West Virginia.
However, the above is water over the dam. Now as the Pac-10 flounders one wonders if the conference will crater. How many times have we heard that X is not going anywhere followed shortly by X leaving town?
I'm mad as hell but what can I and other Pac-10 fans do but bend over and take it up the tailpipe?
If nothing else the Pac-10 should be adding SDSU, Fresno, Boise, and UNLV to keep B12/FOX out of the Left Coast footprint. All 4 schools would come on board for a lesser cut than the Pac-10 schools.
The Pac-12 began circling the drain when Tom Hansen agreed with SEC Commissioner Roy Kramer that CFB needed one true champion and allowed the Rose Bowl to become the equivalent of the Peach Bowl.
It would be so Pac-12 to supplement SMU, which will deliver maybe 10% of the Metroplex audience, with Rice, which despite being in a market with 2.45 million households, will draw 24,500 viewers for their best game, and snub Boise St, which will deliver 516,750 of those 517,000 households, and let the Big XII also snatch Fresno St,, effectively ceding the entire central and east California audience.
Fast forward to 2024, and ESPN, which also has the Big XII, will be alternating the Broncos and Bulldogs on Saturday night's ESPN primary window, while the Pac's #Pac12onalternatechannels game will alternate between ESPN2 & ESPNU, depending on whether BYU is home that weekend, and the PAC will garner ~1/3 of the viewership the Big XII does on their good weekends.
Yuck. I'd rather stay with 10. I think that's smarter.
But if you have to add 4 for inventory reasons, go with UNLV/SDSU and SMU/UTSA. Natural travel partners and big markets (or big casinos).
Of course, the truly big thinker will figure out how to blow up the ACC. Surely you can convince 8 ACC teams to vote against the GOR. Those teams are earning peanuts right now, and they're locked into that for another decade. It just takes 8 of them with a good landing spot to bail, and Amazon/CBS can provide that landing spot with the top 8 of the Pac. Control both coasts with 16 teams worth of inventory, including various blue bloods, huge markets, and recent NY6/playoff teams.
The medium thinker will figure out how to blow up the Big12. They haven't signed their GOR yet, right? I still think 4 of those teams would be smart to bail if an offer comes.
The small thinker will just add 4 MWC teams and hope for the best.
I still have a difficult time seeing the post UT/OU Big 12 as a power conference on a level with the ACC, B1G, and SEC. Right now I see the Pac as a tweener.
As a Fresno fan, I can’t imagine the PAC-12 Presidents handing Fresno State a better model.
1) Reject the San Joaquin Valley so the 4.2M people in it clearly get the message what the PAC thinks of them.
2) Sign a streaming deal with Amazon so to watch SMU/Oregon at 3:30 PST versus Alabama/Texas or USC/Penn State I have to switch to streaming
3) Have that Alabama/Texas (ABC) and UCF/Houston (ESPN) as a lead-in to the 7:00 ESPN game of Fresno/TCU and have the mouse talking heads promote the game and Tedford from 4:00 to 7:00.
4) meanwhile the 7:30 competition from the PAC, where I have to switch to streaming is likely Oregon State versus UNLV....
I can only pray as a Fresno fan that this scenario plays out as Canzano has outlined. I can’t even imagine a better one.
"Telemundo, PBS and HGTV are also not involved, in case anyone is wondering."
Well that is truly a disappointment. I was really looking forward to HGTV stadium seating hacks and DIY tailgating shows! Arrghhhh!!!!
John has reported facts and solid data during all of this. Whether we like it or not, chances are that he has reported what will happen.
I had to be beaten over the head to understand that what the tv contracts are coveting are market televisions. Rating are important but are a negotiating point, NOT A STARTING POINT. There are some brands that cross over that, but for the most part they are national brands that have been relevant for decades.
Example the BIG gets X for OSU being in Columbus. Then the BIG says "You are going to give us X+Y because here are the historical ratings that OSU brings." The networks know they can count on those ratings so the price goes up.
A program like Oregon is building something like that. But their y is nothing compared to OSU< BAMA<USC...etc.
I so enjoy your solid, well-sourced columns on this topic, and your humorous asides are a bonus. I'll be stealing the "Telemundo, PBS and HGTV" at lunch today. With attribution, of course!
Rice - in spite of sitting in the middle of a great media market - is not a serious football or basketball program...great baseball, but irrelevant in football and basketball. Worse than Rutgers and Maryland, frankly. Academically, they would actually enhance the Pac-12 profile/reputation, but to your point - this is a media rights driven decision. I think SMU has the same or better media market and a better football tradition. Their academics are also on a par or better than most Pac-12 schools.
The only natural fit, in my opinion, is San Diego State. All others mentioned - Boise State, SMU, Fresno, Rice, UNLV - have weaknesses of some kind. It's a shame the Pac-12 presidents, chancellors and trustees are so arrogant and condescending towards BYU, because of the religious affiliation. That BYU-Utah rivalry is as big and bitter as any in the Pac-12, BYU brings tremendous football tradition, decent basketball tradition and resides in a growing media market.
Regardless, I think it's going to be San Diego State and SMU when the dust settles, although if the chancellors and presidents ever figure out the SMU acronym stands for Southern METHODIST University, they'll have a knee-jerk freakout before learning the religious component has been tamped down in recent years.
Telemundo - GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL! Unfortunately, it's football and not futbol that brings in the dollars in the USA.
Slow walking the media deal is yet another faux pas by the conference. Yarmack was smart to jump ahead in line and score a so-called undervalued deal with FOX/ESPN. An all-linear deal without the risk of being a beta site for streaming college football and college basketball.
The PAC-12 had the perfect opportunity to adopt the B12 orphaned teams and to put a Power 5 conference out of existence. Once again arrogance trumped financial sense and the 'elite club' of members could be going down the drain. And what I find even more galling is that USC president Carol Folt led the opposition against taking in the B12 orphaned teams and also adding Houston.
IMO, Kansas (AAU member), Iowa State (AAU member), Houston (Tier 1 research university), Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU, and one of San Diego State, Fresno, UNLV, UTSA made far more financial sense than adding SMU.
Different revenue shares could have been negotiated including getting USC a bigger piece of the pie and keeping the Trojans in the Pac conference. UCLA is not getting an invite to the B1G without USC.
FOX and ESPN would be left to negotiate with a Power 4 conference; the B12 would be gone and not in the equation. All added teams would be in the central time zone; no need to add West Virginia.
However, the above is water over the dam. Now as the Pac-10 flounders one wonders if the conference will crater. How many times have we heard that X is not going anywhere followed shortly by X leaving town?
I'm mad as hell but what can I and other Pac-10 fans do but bend over and take it up the tailpipe?
If nothing else the Pac-10 should be adding SDSU, Fresno, Boise, and UNLV to keep B12/FOX out of the Left Coast footprint. All 4 schools would come on board for a lesser cut than the Pac-10 schools.
The Pac-12 began circling the drain when Tom Hansen agreed with SEC Commissioner Roy Kramer that CFB needed one true champion and allowed the Rose Bowl to become the equivalent of the Peach Bowl.
It would be so Pac-12 to supplement SMU, which will deliver maybe 10% of the Metroplex audience, with Rice, which despite being in a market with 2.45 million households, will draw 24,500 viewers for their best game, and snub Boise St, which will deliver 516,750 of those 517,000 households, and let the Big XII also snatch Fresno St,, effectively ceding the entire central and east California audience.
Fast forward to 2024, and ESPN, which also has the Big XII, will be alternating the Broncos and Bulldogs on Saturday night's ESPN primary window, while the Pac's #Pac12onalternatechannels game will alternate between ESPN2 & ESPNU, depending on whether BYU is home that weekend, and the PAC will garner ~1/3 of the viewership the Big XII does on their good weekends.
HGTV should be involved... if ever we needed a remodel, it's now!
• Telemundo, PBS and HGTV are also not involved, in case anyone is wondering.
Love this!
I heard the Food Network was interested and Guy Fieri would be calling the games.
Yuck. I'd rather stay with 10. I think that's smarter.
But if you have to add 4 for inventory reasons, go with UNLV/SDSU and SMU/UTSA. Natural travel partners and big markets (or big casinos).
Of course, the truly big thinker will figure out how to blow up the ACC. Surely you can convince 8 ACC teams to vote against the GOR. Those teams are earning peanuts right now, and they're locked into that for another decade. It just takes 8 of them with a good landing spot to bail, and Amazon/CBS can provide that landing spot with the top 8 of the Pac. Control both coasts with 16 teams worth of inventory, including various blue bloods, huge markets, and recent NY6/playoff teams.
The medium thinker will figure out how to blow up the Big12. They haven't signed their GOR yet, right? I still think 4 of those teams would be smart to bail if an offer comes.
The small thinker will just add 4 MWC teams and hope for the best.
To me, SDSU is a no-brainer, but after that...?
I still have a difficult time seeing the post UT/OU Big 12 as a power conference on a level with the ACC, B1G, and SEC. Right now I see the Pac as a tweener.
And added 4 teams lickety-split. BYU. Cincy. Houston and UCF.
Meanwhile, the 'elite club' did nada.
As a Fresno fan, I can’t imagine the PAC-12 Presidents handing Fresno State a better model.
1) Reject the San Joaquin Valley so the 4.2M people in it clearly get the message what the PAC thinks of them.
2) Sign a streaming deal with Amazon so to watch SMU/Oregon at 3:30 PST versus Alabama/Texas or USC/Penn State I have to switch to streaming
3) Have that Alabama/Texas (ABC) and UCF/Houston (ESPN) as a lead-in to the 7:00 ESPN game of Fresno/TCU and have the mouse talking heads promote the game and Tedford from 4:00 to 7:00.
4) meanwhile the 7:30 competition from the PAC, where I have to switch to streaming is likely Oregon State versus UNLV....
I can only pray as a Fresno fan that this scenario plays out as Canzano has outlined. I can’t even imagine a better one.
John C, another great take.
Today for the Pac-10 it's about survival and not 'exclusive club' academics.
I hope Oregon state is actively developing worst case scenario options. Hope for the best, guard against the worst.