One thing to consider is that it is not just the number of viewers today, but in 10 years that matter. These media contracts are long term and so priced on the future, not the present. The LA area continues to bleed viewers to Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and Texas. Being in the DFW market, along with the Las Vegas market and also the Denver and Salt Lake market is more important in the future than remaining in LA is at the present. Many of the viewers will have moved in 10 years. The trend is your friend
SMU and SDSU are no-brainers to me. UNLV too, for all the reasons stated. I do wish another Texas school could be pulled in; Houston is a massive market, a proud athletic history and a good research profile. Could they be persuaded to break ranks to join the Pac 14?
John, are Tulane (New Orleans), UT San Antonio (Sam Antonio, Austin), Rice (Houston) any possibilities? If you need inventory and eyeballs, these are solid academic choices with large metro.
On Fresno State, don't those eyeballs already count in P12 numbers?
If they want Gonzaga, can also consider Loyola Marymount in LA , which has had decent teams in prior years. Does bring the LA market for basketball.
UNLV could be an option. It's proximate to LA to some degree.
Thanks for the info John. I support the direction of the league with both SDSU and SMU. In hindsight I sure wish they would've taken BYU when they had the chance. Colorado and Utah are NOT rivals. I think Boise State and Fresno would be attractive from a competition standpoint, and if the Pac doesn't pick them up then they probably land somewhere else soon, Boise is a known football product. Having said that, they cannot let Boise in unless they change their turf to green, as a fan I cannot watch smurf turf every single season.
If Canzano isn't writing about it, I'm not interested... Seriously, the best PAC 12 reporting out there...i really hope you provide reporting on PAC 12 baseball.. Because your PAC 12 football reporting has been impeccable. Thanks, John!
John excellent stuff! UTSA is something that looks like a potential traveling partner for SMU. It’s starting to grow some momentum in some eyes. Thoughts? Oregon and U of W have a major power play with how long they grant their rights for an the opt out of the conference cheaply, and for a bigger cut since they are holding the pac 12 pants in national recognition. Do they play their hand?
Oh man, there's a lot in here, and I don't buy all of it. But at the end of the day, if Amazon says "add SDSU", I guess you plug your nose and do it. Otherwise, no thank you.
To say SDSU and SMU add millions of televisions is only technically true. In reality, neither team has a lot of local support. Neither has a sizeable following or fanbase.
To say that SDSU and SMU are "better academic fits" than other candidates is silly. They are both terrible academic fits. There's no way either would be considered by the Pac-12 as peer academic institutions.
At least San Diego is a great destination. The Pac-12 still rules supreme in that category (followed by the ACC, the SEC, the Big10, the AAC, the MWC, and the Big-12, in that order.)
If Amazon needs the inventory, they should think big and form the PACATAC: https://chng.it/Y5wtKLrd. They could add teams on both coasts instead of settling for leftovers.
Sorry, I live in Sac and Stanford/Cal get no interest in the Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto DMA. More conversation about high school football than PAC-12 football. Fresno does have some reach into Modesto and Stockton as they pull a number of kids from those areas and it’s San Joaquin Valley.
It makes no sense that the Pac-12 will get no credit for LA area TV viewers next year when so many players in multiple sports come from that region. You know there are hundreds of thousand viewers watching Pac-12 sports in that area. I would like to hear Mr. Thompson's inside view of that point and what effect, if any, it should have on the media deal(s).
Amazon has 200M worldwide customers. 76.6M American households (59% of said households) have at least one 'agreement' with Amazon. Streaming could be difficult for the elder generation but a piece of cake for kids today.
IMO the Pac-12 needs this streaming partner relationship and would be well served to add SDSU, Fresno, UNLV (better academics since the addition of the medical school and state-of-the-art football and basketball facilities,) SMU. UTSA (San Antonio is a huge market without significant professional sports competition) and Tulane brings a decent-sized New Orleans TV market and gets the conference into SEC country. This move would block the B12 from any large Pacific time zone markets.
Academics? The conference is in survival mode and 3 of the current Pac-10 members are not AAU member institutions. The above 6 schools would bring in the defending AAC, MW, and CUSA champions.
All of the schools mentioned above would be willing to take a lesser cut than the Pac-10 schools. Why? MW schools today are receiving $4M each (slightly more for Boise) and the AAC schools Tulane, SMU, and new member UTSA are also receiving far less than what GK will be able to conjure up.
The Pac-12 has been reactionary ever since Larry's B12 move did not work out. Now, IMO it is time to be the aggressor.
It's fascinating to think that the same group of decision makers that have repeatedly made it clear BYU was a non-starter, despite the fact they would deliver a large and region-wide audience, and quality competition, for the sole reason of religious association, would suddenly embrace,,,a smaller school with a religious association, that will deliver only a small and distant audience. But this is the Pac-12, so no management mistake can ever be ruled out.
One thing to consider is that it is not just the number of viewers today, but in 10 years that matter. These media contracts are long term and so priced on the future, not the present. The LA area continues to bleed viewers to Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and Texas. Being in the DFW market, along with the Las Vegas market and also the Denver and Salt Lake market is more important in the future than remaining in LA is at the present. Many of the viewers will have moved in 10 years. The trend is your friend
Bigger is not better. For the Pac-10 to get more viewership, “Just win baby”. Put a product on the field people want to watch.
SMU and SDSU are no-brainers to me. UNLV too, for all the reasons stated. I do wish another Texas school could be pulled in; Houston is a massive market, a proud athletic history and a good research profile. Could they be persuaded to break ranks to join the Pac 14?
They are overlooking the fact just because USC/UCLA are leaving doesn't mean that
every SoCal TV is going with them. There will be plenty of viewers that will still tune in
to Pac 12 football.
John, are Tulane (New Orleans), UT San Antonio (Sam Antonio, Austin), Rice (Houston) any possibilities? If you need inventory and eyeballs, these are solid academic choices with large metro.
On Fresno State, don't those eyeballs already count in P12 numbers?
If they want Gonzaga, can also consider Loyola Marymount in LA , which has had decent teams in prior years. Does bring the LA market for basketball.
UNLV could be an option. It's proximate to LA to some degree.
Thanks for the info John. I support the direction of the league with both SDSU and SMU. In hindsight I sure wish they would've taken BYU when they had the chance. Colorado and Utah are NOT rivals. I think Boise State and Fresno would be attractive from a competition standpoint, and if the Pac doesn't pick them up then they probably land somewhere else soon, Boise is a known football product. Having said that, they cannot let Boise in unless they change their turf to green, as a fan I cannot watch smurf turf every single season.
If Canzano isn't writing about it, I'm not interested... Seriously, the best PAC 12 reporting out there...i really hope you provide reporting on PAC 12 baseball.. Because your PAC 12 football reporting has been impeccable. Thanks, John!
John excellent stuff! UTSA is something that looks like a potential traveling partner for SMU. It’s starting to grow some momentum in some eyes. Thoughts? Oregon and U of W have a major power play with how long they grant their rights for an the opt out of the conference cheaply, and for a bigger cut since they are holding the pac 12 pants in national recognition. Do they play their hand?
Oh man, there's a lot in here, and I don't buy all of it. But at the end of the day, if Amazon says "add SDSU", I guess you plug your nose and do it. Otherwise, no thank you.
To say SDSU and SMU add millions of televisions is only technically true. In reality, neither team has a lot of local support. Neither has a sizeable following or fanbase.
To say that SDSU and SMU are "better academic fits" than other candidates is silly. They are both terrible academic fits. There's no way either would be considered by the Pac-12 as peer academic institutions.
At least San Diego is a great destination. The Pac-12 still rules supreme in that category (followed by the ACC, the SEC, the Big10, the AAC, the MWC, and the Big-12, in that order.)
If Amazon needs the inventory, they should think big and form the PACATAC: https://chng.it/Y5wtKLrd. They could add teams on both coasts instead of settling for leftovers.
Gonzaga makes ZERO sense for any of the involved parties. (Beyond potential $ from men’s hoops.)
1. Smaller, religious school. Not the conference profile.
2. No football.
3. PNW schools would veto. Geographic incursion; recruiting threat.
4. GU has no incentive to leave one conference they dominate for one in which they’d face legitimate competition.
Sorry, I live in Sac and Stanford/Cal get no interest in the Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto DMA. More conversation about high school football than PAC-12 football. Fresno does have some reach into Modesto and Stockton as they pull a number of kids from those areas and it’s San Joaquin Valley.
Is there any chance that Houston could be poached or has that ship sailed?
Great comments. PLEASE do not overlook the market that Amazon brings with it. The market is huge and growing.
Looking at ESPN's and Disney's financials, one wonders if ESPN will fulfill its promises of payment without going primarily to streaming on ESPN3?
Amazon will do all it can to make access easier for the old tech clod like me.
It makes no sense that the Pac-12 will get no credit for LA area TV viewers next year when so many players in multiple sports come from that region. You know there are hundreds of thousand viewers watching Pac-12 sports in that area. I would like to hear Mr. Thompson's inside view of that point and what effect, if any, it should have on the media deal(s).
Love your columns and show.
Amazon has 200M worldwide customers. 76.6M American households (59% of said households) have at least one 'agreement' with Amazon. Streaming could be difficult for the elder generation but a piece of cake for kids today.
IMO the Pac-12 needs this streaming partner relationship and would be well served to add SDSU, Fresno, UNLV (better academics since the addition of the medical school and state-of-the-art football and basketball facilities,) SMU. UTSA (San Antonio is a huge market without significant professional sports competition) and Tulane brings a decent-sized New Orleans TV market and gets the conference into SEC country. This move would block the B12 from any large Pacific time zone markets.
Academics? The conference is in survival mode and 3 of the current Pac-10 members are not AAU member institutions. The above 6 schools would bring in the defending AAC, MW, and CUSA champions.
All of the schools mentioned above would be willing to take a lesser cut than the Pac-10 schools. Why? MW schools today are receiving $4M each (slightly more for Boise) and the AAC schools Tulane, SMU, and new member UTSA are also receiving far less than what GK will be able to conjure up.
The Pac-12 has been reactionary ever since Larry's B12 move did not work out. Now, IMO it is time to be the aggressor.
Thanks, John for the insightful take.
It's fascinating to think that the same group of decision makers that have repeatedly made it clear BYU was a non-starter, despite the fact they would deliver a large and region-wide audience, and quality competition, for the sole reason of religious association, would suddenly embrace,,,a smaller school with a religious association, that will deliver only a small and distant audience. But this is the Pac-12, so no management mistake can ever be ruled out.