Which team ends up dancing in Las Vegas?
Men's Pac-12 Tournament preview, predictions, thoughts.
Andrew Martin lives in Arizona, where he’s posted up and watched Pac-12 Conference men’s basketball teams play all season.
I feel like we should send the guy a cold beverage.
Instead, I’ve asked Martin to get to work and provide a scouting report for this week’s Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas. Use Martin’s assessment and your eyes to tell me in the comment section which two teams will play for the tournament championship on Saturday night. And give me your winner, too.
I’ll be on the scene this week in Las Vegas with coverage for JohnCanzano.com. My radio show will also broadcast on Thursday and Friday (3-6 p.m. PT) from T-Mobile Arena.
My picks: USC vs. Washington State.
Winner: Cougars.
Here’s Andrew Martin’s assessment:
Instead of dwelling on the fact that the final Pac-12 basketball season is coming to a somber end, I choose to focus on the positive: This tournament is especially intriguing. Some completely surprising team could punch its ticket to March Madness.
The men’s basketball tournament tips off Wednesday at T-Mobile Arena with an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. Arizona is already in the Big Dance. Washington State is too. Colorado might be in (bracketologist Jerry Palm thinks so), but a win or two wouldn’t hurt the Buffaloes’ cause.
I have Arizona and Washington State in the top tier, Colorado and Oregon in the No. 2 tier, and then everyone else clustered together after that — except Oregon State which invented ways to find the bottom in a disappointing season.
If anyone else wants to go dancing, the opportunity is there. Colorado has seized some nice moments... and USC, after a mostly dismal winter, is healthy and ended the regular season on an absolute heater. The Trojans won three straight games, including knocking off Arizona on Saturday night.
What else do you need to know?
I’m glad you asked.
In order of seeding:
Arizona
Seed: 1
Record: 24-7 (15-5 in Pac-12)
Bet MGM odds to win the tournament: -175
First opponent: Winner of Washington-USC.
The Wildcats were the best team in the conference for most of the season. The roster is loaded, and Arizona has the (likely/arguably) Pac-12 Player of the Year in Caleb Love. Their weakness is occasionally playing down to inferior teams. The big question this week: Will they put their foot on the gas or coast in the conference tournament?
Players to watch: Caleb Love, Oumar Ballo, Keshad Johnson.
Canzano says: “Someone could make a killing selling ‘Anyone but Arizona’ T-shirts outside T-Mobile Arena.”
Washington State
Seed: 2
Record: 23-8 (14-6)
Odds to win tournament: 6-to-1
First opponent: Winner of Cal-Stanford
File this one under: “Who saw this one coming?!” (Not me... you’re welcome to read my Pac-12 preseason prediction column for confirmation). Credit to coach Kyle Smith for recruiting, assembling, scheduling, and coaching in a way that fostered one of the best college basketball stories of the year. Also, credit to Myles Rice, for being an incredible talent and a great story himself. In addition to Rice, if Jaylen Wells is hitting from outside, and the bigs are active on the boards, the Cougs are a tough out. Worth noting: WSU beat Arizona twice.
Players to watch: Myles Rice, Jaylen Wells, Isaac Jones.
Canzano says: “Anyone else think Kyle Smith’s team plays better when it doesn’t think anyone believes in it?”
Colorado
Seed: 3
Record: 22-9 (13-7)
Odds to win tournament: 5-to-1
First opponent: Winner of Utah-ASU.
Colorado has battled injuries this season, especially freshman phenom and future NBA Draft Lottery pick Cody Williams who only appeared in 11 conference games. The Buffaloes have had plenty of players pick up the slack, with guard KJ Simpson (another very strong Player of the Year candidate) and 6-foot-9 Tristan da Silva. The Buffs can be a little streaky, but they enter the conference tournament riding a six-game winning streak.
Players to watch: Simpson, da Silva, Williams (if healthy), and Eddie Lampkin.
Canzano says: “Not a bad sleeper pick.”
Oregon
Seed: 4
Record: 20-11 (12-8)
Odds to win tournament: 12-to-1
First opponent: Winner of UCLA-Oregon State.
Ducks fans are disappointed with a season that didn’t go as planned. Nobody in the country suffered more injuries than Oregon this season. The top-eight players in the UO rotation have missed nearly 50 games this season due to injury. Still, 20 wins is better than a sharp stick in the eye, as one of my former bosses was fond of saying. With Jackson Shelstad, N’Faly Dante, and Jermaine Couisnard on the floor, the Ducks are dangerous and have a puncher’s chance to win the conference tournament.
Players to watch: Shelstad, Dante, Couisnard.
Canzano says: “Dana Altman should smile more. I wish his team would let him.”
UCLA
Seed: 5
Record: 15-16 (10-10)
Odds to win tournament: 40-to-1
First opponent: Oregon State
This season has given UCLA fans a bad case of whiplash. After a bumpy start, it looked like Mick Cronin’s international experiment failed. Then the Bruins ran off six straight conference wins. Which they promptly followed with five straight conference losses. Cronin has not been shy about letting people know who is to blame for the Bruin’s struggles this year (Spoiler: it’s never Mick Cronin).
That said, UCLA ended the season with a solid win against ASU and was fortunate to draw Oregon State in the first round. The Beavers might get beat by several of the club basketball teams at UCLA.
Players to watch: Adem Bona, Dylan Andrews, Lazar Stefanovic.
Canzano says: “If someone designed a suit made of Teflon, Mick Cronin would be first in line to buy it.”
Utah
Seed: 6
Record: 18-13 (9-11)
Odds to win tournament: 14-to-1
First opponent: ASU
Utah is entering the tournament on a two-game losing skid but drew an ASU team in the opening round that just had a key starter quit. Utah is tough and well-coached. It has Branden Carlson, who is an absolute weapon (although he got banged up in the last game of the season against Oregon, and is now questionable). The Utes could be a trap game for someone, and should not be overlooked.
Players to watch: Carlson, Deivon Smith, Gabe Madsen
Canzano says: “If the Utes can win two games in the conference tournament, they’ll make the NCAA selection committee think hard.”
Cal
Seed: 7
Record: 13-18 (9-11)
Odds to win tournament: 100-to-1
First opponent: Stanford
This isn’t Mark Fox’s Cal Team. The Mark Madsen era has arrived with a bang, and Cal is playing with toughness, intensity, and a new identity. The Bears are ending the season with three straight losses on the road and drew a first-round rematch with Stanford, who beat them badly at Maples last week. It will be interesting to see how Cal responds in a tournament played on a neutral court.
Players to watch: Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq, Jalen Cone.
Canzano says: “Forget the hoops, did you know Marshawn Lynch and Mark Madsen are making an appearance together at Mandalay Bay on Tuesday?”
Washington
Seed: 8
Record: 17-14 (9-11)
Odds to win tournament: 40-to-1
First opponent: USC
Washington did not have a successful season in what will be Mike Hopkins’ last run in Seattle. That said, the Huskies have plenty of players who are more than capable of stepping up, as Washington State recently learned the hard way. The Huskies drew a surging USC squad in Round 1 of the conference tournament. The Trojans just beat UW at home. Look for the Washington game plan to be focused on containing Trojan freshman Isaiah Collier, who torched them for 31 last time out.
Players to watch: Keion Brooks Jr., Koren Johnson, Sahvir Wheeler.
Canzano says: “Don’t feel too bad for Hopkins, he’ll get a $3.2 million parting gift from UW.”
USC
Seed: 9
Record: 14-17 (8-12)
Odds to win tournament: 20-to-1
First opponent: Washington
Is USC a dark horse candidate to win this tournament? If I was going to make a crazy wager on a team that could find its groove at the right time, the Trojans might be it. USC did not come close to living up to expectations this year, and injuries played a role in that. The Trojans are now looking healthier, and playing well, winning their last three games of the season including a wire-to-wire 78-65 stunner over Arizona on Saturday night.
Players to watch: Boogie Ellis, Isaiah Collier, Kobe Johnson, LeBron James (likely sitting courtside).
Canzano says: “Like Andrew said… the Lakers are off Thursday and Friday. Does LeBron know the way to Las Vegas?”
Stanford
Seed: 10
Record: 13-17 (8-12)
Odds to win tournament: 80-to-1
First opponent: Cal
Stanford rolled the dice on another year with Jerod Haase, while their favorite son (Mark Madsen) got snatched up by their No. 1 rival. Haase delivered a couple of highly touted prospects and another disappointing basketball season. Still, there’s some talent on the roster, and the Cardinal have shown a propensity for hanging around for 25-30 minutes with good teams before the wheels fall off. Who will be coaching the Cardinal next season? Keep an eye on WSU’s Kyle Smith.
Players to watch: Maxime Raynaud, Spencer Jones, Brandon Angel, and Kanaan Carlyle.
Canzano says: “Mark Madsen… why can’t Stanford get guys like that?”
ASU
Seed: 11
Record: 14-17 (8-12)
Odds to win tournament: 150-to-1
First opponent: Utah
ASU has played some great games this season — and some awful ones, too. The Sun Devils were dealt a brutal blow last week when starting guard Jose Perez quit the team just before the final regular-season game. The 6-foot-5 Perez is now playing with the Plaza Valeria entry of the Dominican League. Perez scored eight points in his first game.
Coach Bobby Hurley said of the departure: “You gotta make choices in life and you have to do what’s best for you.”
ASU still has a talented backcourt that includes Frankie Collins and Adam Miller, but if the Sun Devils end up in foul trouble, it’s a problem (and Hurley-coached teams are not known for getting a sympathetic whistle). It will be tough sledding for ASU, and it will need to come together to make a run.
Players to watch: Collins, Miller, Jamiya Neal.
Canzano says: “Plaza Valeria’s NIL collective is undefeated.”
Oregon State
Seed: 12
Record: 13-18 (5-15)
Odds to win tournament: 250-to-1
First opponent: UCLA
A couple of weeks ago I texted a fellow coach and told him that the Beavers had lost 39 of their last 40 road games. He thought I was kidding. While OSU ambushed a couple of teams in Corvallis this year (See: Arizona), Wayne Tinkle and staff failed to bring in enough talent to be a consistently competitive team in a high-major conference. Beavers fans, if you love Jordan Pope, it may be time to set him free.
Players to watch: Pope, Tyler Bilodeau.
Canzano says: “Anyone up for another Elite Eight run?”
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Please Stanford, stay away from Kyle Smith! -signed, every Coug fan
After attending a few PAC-12 tournaments, I LOVE the “Anybody but Arizona” t-shirt idea.