Canzano: Week 1 picks, thoughts, and predictions

College football is on!

Aug 29, 2024

Oregon and Washington played in the Pac-12 title game last season. (Photo: Serena Morones)

I like Las Vegas. It’s a fun town. The people-watching is great. There’s ample sports wagering, entertainment, and great food. But it’s not someplace I’ve imagined ever living. Particularly because my friends who live there tell me they don’t spend a lot of time on The Strip.

Many of them avoid it.

I fly in a couple of times a year, for a college football game or basketball tournament. I’m aware that staying for long periods isn’t great. This summer, I visited Las Vegas for less than 24 hours. I dashed in for the Pac-12’s football cocktail party and flew out the following morning.

I didn’t gamble during my July visit. I didn’t roll the dice or play a single hand of blackjack. And I didn’t sit by the pool. When I told Washington State coach Jake Dickert about this he said: “Well, your Vegas trip didn’t at all look like mine.”

I’m going to make up for it. Again this season, every Thursday I’ll make weekly college football predictions. I’ll handicap games from all of the former Pac-12 schools as they go off into the Big 12, ACC, and Big Ten. I’ll feature Mountain West programs, too, and handicap the most interesting games of the week all around.

Two football seasons ago, I correctly predicted 58 percent of the games against the spread. I caught fire during the 2022 regular season, correctly picking 18 of 21 college football games during one span. It was a blast while it lasted. My goal in 2024 is to post my best prediction season ever.

My 2023 season record vs. the spread: 48-42 (.533)

My 2023 straight-up record: 75-22 (77 percent)

My Week 1 picks, thoughts, and predictions…

North Dakota State at Colorado (5 p.m. Thursday, ESPN):

North Dakota State is an FCS powerhouse with 17 national titles and enters the season as the No. 2 ranked team in that division. The Bison frequently play FBS schools and have won six of their last seven meetings with programs from the upper tier. The lone loss in that stretch? A three-point defeat at Arizona in 2022.

Colorado has better recruits, an improved offensive line, and is playing at home. But this is like a Super Bowl for North Dakota State. It believes it can win and should move the ball on offense. The offseason distractions for Deion Sanders and his program have been an issue. Also, Colorado has 55 transfers. Will it play like a cohesive unit? It’s a dicey season-opening matchup for a program that needed to schedule a patsy in Week 1. I’ve had this one circled for a while. Colorado narrowly escapes at home, but I’ll take North Dakota State and the points.

The line: Colorado is favored by 10 points.

The pick: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 24

(✅ Final: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26)

Southern Utah at Utah (6 p.m. Thursday, ESPN+):

I was in Salt Lake City last season for the opener and witnessed Utah beat Florida. The Big 12 era of Utes football begins with a much easier opponent at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Kyle Whittingham isn’t interested in embarrassing anyone, but the Utes beat the Thunderbirds 73-7 in 2022. Quarterback Cam Rising played in that game and he’ll play in this one. I like Utah to cover the spread.

The line: Utah is favored by 38.5 points.

The pick: Utah 45, Southern Utah 0

(✅ Final: Utah 49, Southern Utah 0)

TCU at Stanford (7:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN):

TCU’s season-opening loss to Colorado last season put the program in the spotlight in a negative way. I doubt the Horned Frogs will overlook the Cardinal, even though Troy Taylor’s program is in the second year of a rebuild.

Insiders tell me the Stanford offensive line is better than a year ago. The primary questions this season are on the defensive line, at linebacker, and in the secondary. Basically — the defense. That will put a lot of pressure on Stanford’s offense to score, particularly against decent (or better) competition. The Cardinal are moving in the right direction. Meanwhile, TCU came off a 5-7 season last year and hired Andy Avalos as defensive coordinator. He brought in former Oregon assistant Ken Wilson to coach the linebackers. The Horned Frogs win the game but don’t cover the spread.

The line: TCU is favored by 9.5 points.

The pick: TCU 34, Stanford 27

(✅ Final: TCU 34, Stanford 27)

Clemson vs. Georgia (9 a.m. Saturday, ESPN):

This is the biggest national game on the week’s schedule. Neutral site. Two ranked teams. Big stage in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs feel at home. I keep going back to something Georgia beat reporter Chip Towers of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution told me this summer when we talked: “Georgia is playing a lot more in the free-agency game.”

Towers has covered the program for a few decades. He noted that the Bulldogs picked up 11 players, including several all-conference talents. Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, meanwhile, refuses to use the portal. This game is going to make him rethink that philosophy. Georgia has won 47 of its last 49 football games. It becomes 48 of 50 after Saturday’s matchup.

The line: Georgia is favored by 13.5 points.

The pick: Georgia 35, Clemson 17

(✅ Final: Georgia 34, Clemson 3)

Portland State at Washington State (12 p.m. Saturday, The CW):

The Vikings will make $563,000 to play this game. I asked PSU coach Bruce Barnum if he’ll be handed the check before kickoff.

Barnum quipped: “No. If they did, teams would probably be afraid you’d leave at halftime.”

That said, Portland State beat Washington State 24-17 in 2015. Barnum told me that he knew at halftime of that game (down 10-0) that his team had a chance. The Vikings put together a great plan in the second half, made some big plays, and won the game.

WSU has a lot to prove this season. They win this game. Portland State’s big-picture objective is to come away without any key injuries.

The line: Washington State is favored by 28.5 points.

The pick: WSU 45, Portland State 14

(✅ Final: Washington State 70, Portland State 30)

Miami at Florida (12:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC):

Miami coach Mario Cristobal told me a secret this summer — he thinks his team is sneaky good. The pollsters agreed and ranked the Hurricanes No. 19. Cristobal has transfer Cam Ward at quarterback and is going to feed transfer running back Damien Martinez plenty of carries. The Swamp is a tough place to play, but Miami is the better team. This is an important season for Cristobal.

The line: Miami is favored by 2.5 points.

The pick: Miami 28, Florida 21

(✅ Final: Miami 41, Florida 17)

Boise State at Georgia Southern (1 p.m. Saturday, ESPNU):

I did a radio interview in Boise this week and could tell how excited the hosts were for the season to start. There’s a lot of anticipation about the G5 berth in the College Football Playoff and the Broncos are among a handful of teams that could win it. Clay Helton is the coach at Georgia Southern. His starting quarterback last season led the country in interceptions. I like the Broncos to win and cover.

The line: Boise State is favored by 13 points.

The pick: Boise State 38, Georgia Southern 24

(❌ Final: Boise State 56, Georgia Southern 45)

UC Davis at Cal (2 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+):

The ACC-era of Cal football begins with a Big Sky opponent. The Bears are talented enough to be bowl-eligible this season. I have them getting to 6 or 7 wins, but they need to win this one at home. There are much tougher games against Auburn, San Diego State, and Florida State in the next three weeks. UC Davis is good enough to hang around in Berkeley and cover the spread, but Cal wins.

The line: Cal is favored by 21 points.

The pick: Cal 31, UC Davis 17

(✅ Final: Cal 31, UC Davis 13)

Idaho State at Oregon State (3:30 p.m. Saturday, The CW):

The first game of coach Trent Bray’s tenure in Corvallis is set up nicely. The Beavers will win this game, and Bray will get a 1-0 start, but I’m very interested to see how it looks. I spoke with Bray on Wednesday. He and his staff have gone through all the procedural things that happen during a football game, going over the new two-minute warning, and practicing for Saturday’s live dress rehearsal. The point spread on this one has been all over the place. It opened at 36.5 points in some places but settled at 27.5 points.

Gevani McCoy will start at quarterback for OSU. But Bray hinted to me that we may see others at that position. I suspect Ben Gulbranson will get some snaps.

Oregon State President Jayathi Murthy is going to join The CW broadcast in the booth early in the second half, per a source. Tune in and see if she talks about what the Beavers plan to do in 2025 as it relates to the football schedule. The Pac-12 has a Sunday deadline to extend its scheduling partnership with the Mountain West.

The line: Oregon State is favored by 27.5 points.

The pick: Oregon State 41, Idaho State 10

(❌ Final: Oregon State 38, Idaho State 15)

UCLA at Hawaii (4:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS):

The Deshaun Foster era of Bruins football opens on the islands against a team that struggled to finish off Delaware State last week. Ethan Garbers starts for UCLA at quarterback. I like the Bruins to win, but I won’t be surprised if the win is a little clunky. I’m eager to see coordinator Eric Bienemy’s offense.

Hawaii was locked up with Delaware State last week until it reeled off 21 points to finish the game. Did the Rainbow Warriors figure something out? Coaches love to tell you the biggest improvement comes after the first game. I’ll lean into that here.

The line: UCLA is favored by 14 points.

The pick: UCLA 31, Hawaii 20

(✅ Final: UCLA 16, Hawaii 13)

Idaho at Oregon (4:30 p.m. Saturday, Big Ten Network):

The Ducks throttled Portland State 81-7 last season in the opener. Idaho coach Jason Eck asked PSU coach Bruce Barnum if there was anything he learned in the game he might share. Barnum told Eck: “Look, those guys are trying to win the natty. You and I are just trying to have a beer.”

Idaho will move the pocket around on pass plays and try to stay healthy for Big Sky play. It will attempt to shorten the game and avoid giving up 80 points, but it’s up against a gifted, deep, talented team that is going to move the ball with ease.

The spread: Oregon is favored by 43.5 points.

The pick: Oregon 63, Idaho 7

(❌ Final: Oregon 24, Idaho 14)

New Mexico at Arizona (7:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN):

I’m a big fan of Arizona first-year coach Brent Brennan. I don’t think the Wildcats will win the Big 12 this season (Utah will), but Arizona will disrupt the standings. I have it finishing in the top half of the league.

Meanwhile, New Mexico got upset 35-31 by the Big Sky Conference’s Montana State last week. I think we’ll see some “Game 2” improvement from New Mexico that results in the massive point spread being covered. The Brennan era at Arizona starts 1-0, though.

The spread: Arizona is a 31.5-point favorite.

The pick: Arizona 42, New Mexico 17

(✅ Final: Arizona 61, New Mexico 39)

Wyoming at ASU (7:30 p.m. Saturday, FS1):

Arizona State will start transfer Sam Leavitt at quarterback in the opener. Wins were hard to come by last season, but I liked how the Sun Devils competed against some of the best teams on the schedule.

Jay Sawve is a first-time, first-year head coach at Wyoming. He started his weekly news conference by announcing he wasn’t sleeping very well. There’s a lot on his mind, apparently.

Said Sawve: “It’s like, OK, if there’s, you know, three minutes to go in the game and it’s this and this scenario, or if there’s a minute to go in a game and this and this scenario, like, how are we going to do this? Or how do I want to handle this? You start just replaying game scenarios in your mind, and you’re doing that just in preparation for it.”

I thought it was a candid glimpse into the mind of a new head coach who is in charge of his first game. There’s just a lot to digest. ASU’s Kenny Dillingham, a second-year head coach, is on the other side. I suspect that makes a difference in this one.

The line: ASU by 7.5 points.

The pick: ASU 34, Wyoming 24

(✅ Final: ASU 48, Wyoming 7)

Weber State at Washington (8 p.m. Saturday, Big Ten Network):

The Big Ten Network stacked the Oregon-Washington games in Week 1 to apply some pressure on Comcast. I suspect lots of UW and Oregon fans spent the week plotting how to cut the cord (YouTube TV, Hulu, etc.).

UW coach Jedd Fisch knows what to do with a game like this. He’s going to get off to a nice start in Seattle, get to 1-0, and look toward Week 2. I’ll watch closely, though, because I’m interested to see how the Huskies look, particularly up front on defense. They should dominate the line of scrimmage.

The line: Washington is favored by 26.5 points.

The pick: Washington 38, Weber State 3

(✅ Final: Washington 35, Weber State 3)

LSU vs. USC (4:30 p.m. Sunday, ABC):

I wonder how angry the Trojans are about the disrespect being tossed their way. Lincoln Riley was peppered at Big Ten Football Media Days about his program’s trajectory and asked whether USC is still a top-tier team.

I’m betting that stuck in his craw. I’m betting his players are miffed about it too. And I suspect USC is going to be improved where nobody expects it — on defense. So I’m picking an upset in this neutral-site game in Las Vegas.

The line: LSU is favored by 4.5 points.

The pick: USC 34, LSU 30