Thank you John, consistently excellent articles on just a terrible topic for PAC 12 fans. I don't blame the schools, no individual if placed in similar circumstances would have done anything differently. You would turn down doubling your salary and joining a much more stable organization? Please, contact your mental health provider if you answered yes.
True, but if Stanford and Cal had been the ones to be invited they wouldn't have said no either. I love the PAC 12 and this stinks to high heaven but here we are.
This all leaves me to wonder if CFB is in an economic bubble. Only ESPN and Fox are mentioned as vying for conferences’ media rights. NBC, CBS, and streaming service providers that are not connected to networks seem to only be dipping toes in. Couple that with declining attendance and decreased participation in pre-college football. Not to mention the souring by transfer portal, pay for play, and realignment. Seems like this might be the last big hurrah of CFB. For me, I have decided not to resubscribe this fall after 20 years of pretty avid following. And that was before the USC/UCLA move.
I always read these stories with mixed feelings. Yes, I want to know the latest--but it is like checking on a patient in hospice. The end is coming, it is just the circumstances that are being examined. I grit my teeth every time.
In all this controversy I haven't seen much at all written, or considered, about all the other sports, the effect on the athletes, the fans, importance of the local communities... Sports and athletics are about much, much more than money. And all that "much, much" is why we even get involved with athletics and sports. Let those who are ruled and driven by their greed suffer the karma they are creating. Their lives won't be nearly as enjoyable...
I listened to Kliakoff's opening remarks and was heartened! He said all the right things from my perspective. I'm happy to hear him say, in so many words, that money wasn't driving their decisions as the priority. And he's not ignoring it's importance.
As a recent subscriber, thank you John. As a Buff fan, I have spent the past few weeks in a state of mild to profound depression. The chatter I am hearing now is that ACC only interested in some sort of partnership with Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford and then Utah and Arizona schools headed to Big 12. So OSU, WSU and CU out in the cold. Have you heard anything about this? What about uneven revenue sharing for Oregon and Washington to keep conference together? And does it all matter anyway, as we move toward two mega-conferences? It is difficult to sort through all the rumors and speculation, but I so appreciate your insights.
Looks like UCLA’s escape might not be as lucrative as expected. UC regents are investigating and one option under discussion is UCLA paying part of its new money to Cal to compensate for the blow to that program, says LA Times. Plus the California gov’s spokesman has pointedly noted that the state budget has been kind to UCLA lately. (Hint: Be a shame if something happened to the relationship.)
To many numbers, too many ifs? Just want a smooth fall football schedule to enjoy with the PAC 12 going forward. It seems like it’s just too much to ask for. Money, money, money. A bummed fan.
USC and UCLA will no doubt want to continue to put a Pac-12 game on their schedule to appease their alumni on this coast. I for one hope the conference freezes them out for a good century.
TV’s where the money is, not gate receipts. You know that. I’ll take San Diego St or an ACC school. We got plenty of west coast games already, thank you!
Assuming UCLA makes it to the B1G one matchup I'm looking forward to is Kelly vs. his protégé Ryan Day along with Kelly's former OL coach Justin Frye. I don't see how UCLA prevents being stomped on by multiple B1G schools for years to come.
1. Definitely gut the Pac 12 Network immediately. In fact shut it down ASAP once contracts are concluded. No need to funnel money into a losing business endeavor any longer.
2. Definitely cut a deal with ESPN and ESPN+ and Apple TV. This is the future. Get on board now and reap rewards later.
3. Bring SDSU and Fresno State into the fold to replace UCLA and USC. Ironically they are better teams anyway and I think there is a very good chance that their fan bases will increase exponentially if added to the new Pac 12. They might not provide the tv eyeballs/LA punch of SC/UCLA but they will add some eyeballs to make up for the ones that were supposed to be watching SC/UCLA but apparently weren't anyway????
4. Move on with our lives and stop talking about this.
Cal and UCLA alum here. UCLA doesn't know it, but it's going to win in the financials but lose forever in terms of football. USC will be fine because it's a national brand and dominates the LA recruiting market. But now, the rest of the Big 10, like Ohio State and Michigan, will come in and recruit LA like never before. And once UCLA starts losing, they'll be way down on the list for LA recruits. Oh, and they struggle to put butts in the stands at the Rose Bowl right now, wait until they're playing Indiana on a 90 degree day.
Strangely enough, Cal can win with this if the Pac 12 remains and the money is somewhat right. They can offer top California recruits a top education, the ability for the family to see them play, and the remaining tradition of playing teams like Oregon and Washington that still has cache with these players. And since Cal always played UCLA and USC each year, which typically meant 0-2 or 1-1, now you can replace those losses with more manageable games, which means a better record.
I'll bet in ten years, UCLA will look at their membership like Nebraska looks at it now: How did we become irrelevant after being a national name for so long?
I think it's fascinating to see what the Pac-12 does given the realities of these media rights deals. Kliavkoff wants a $40 million per year payout to Pac-12 schools and I could see ESPN/ESPN+ going for this if an ACC/Pac-12 scheduling agreement is arranged. This could be a way for ESPN to give the ACC more revenue to quiet them down without opening up the current media deal, which might offer an opening for some ACC schools to bolt for the SEC or Big Ten. However, I could also see ESPN wanting the Pac-12 to sign on to a deal that runs concurrent with the ACC deal and thus ends in 2036 - and no way do I see Pac-12 schools agreeing to that give revenue shortfall being locked into their current deal has caused. Maybe they get it done... but if not I wonder if the Pac-12 devolves into an every school for themself mode. In that case I see the follow results when the Pac-10 jumps into the abyss in August 2024: Arizona, ASC, Colorado and Utah land in the Big-12, Washington State and Oregon State go into the Mountain West, Cal and Stanford (with a little help from their LA cousins and an agreement to take a smaller revenue share) go to the Big Ten, and Oregon and Washington get a surprise invite from the SEC. Winners all around?
Oregon and Washington to the SEC would not be a win all around. Those travel schedules are AWFUL - no, it doesn’t matter if they charter planes - and they’d perennially be at the bottom but with less of a brand to build. Plus, who they hell cares about a UW-Missouri or UO-TAMU game?
Schedule counter-programming with top Pac 12 teams vs. ACC/SEC/BIG 12 at SoFi stadium in Los Angeles as part of a Pac 12 After Dark series, sponsored by XYZ.
Oregon vs. Alabama
Washington vs. Clemson
Washington State vs. Oklahoma State
etc. Have a halftime with Drake/Beyonce, etc. Make it a huge thing...LA people will watch that over Indiana v. UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Give the Pac 12 team playing in that game the revenue so that more valuable entities get more money.
The entire Pac 10 ESPN package is only worth $300 million and Joe Rogan is paid $60 million a year for his podcast., or more than the rights to all of Oregon's games on ESPN.
It just seems to me there may be alternatives out there that don't rely on a delivery mechanism in which ESPN will generate $2 Billion for itself in ad revenue and keep 85% of it for itself.
Further, the new head of the NCAA (the SEC Commissioner) has all but confirmed the SEC plans on destroying the Pac 10 and the Big 12 financially, in part out of spite due to the rejection of the 12 team playoff model, which is looking dumber and dumber by the day.
The Conference needs to turn to its biggest boosters, and there are plenty of them, and develop a new format and delivery mechanism that brings most of the revenue directly to the schools and recognizes that the schools other than the Big 10 and SEC are simply on their own, are independent entities, and still have a valuable role to play.
Great update JC and I truly think this is the most likely scenario. ESPN+ taking over for the P12N would generate additional TV revenue and finally end what may be called the greatest financial/strategic mistake in modern college athletics history. I still like the idea of some kind of partnership with the ACC but don't know how real that rumor is...we will see.
What Oregon needs to get into the Big Ten is less focus on football and more focus on research. Oregon has a larger athletics budget than research budget. In 2021, Oregon spent a measly $114 million on research.
please John tell all of us if you would ditch the Bald Faced Truth for a better gig here in Portland? I do not assume ever, but I think I know your honest answer! Be careful please, as Larry Scott still reads your column every other day!
Thank you John, consistently excellent articles on just a terrible topic for PAC 12 fans. I don't blame the schools, no individual if placed in similar circumstances would have done anything differently. You would turn down doubling your salary and joining a much more stable organization? Please, contact your mental health provider if you answered yes.
Thank you for being here Kevin.
I agree, but add in that you will now have your commute doubled or tripled and you have to screw your brother to make it happen.
True, but if Stanford and Cal had been the ones to be invited they wouldn't have said no either. I love the PAC 12 and this stinks to high heaven but here we are.
This all leaves me to wonder if CFB is in an economic bubble. Only ESPN and Fox are mentioned as vying for conferences’ media rights. NBC, CBS, and streaming service providers that are not connected to networks seem to only be dipping toes in. Couple that with declining attendance and decreased participation in pre-college football. Not to mention the souring by transfer portal, pay for play, and realignment. Seems like this might be the last big hurrah of CFB. For me, I have decided not to resubscribe this fall after 20 years of pretty avid following. And that was before the USC/UCLA move.
I always read these stories with mixed feelings. Yes, I want to know the latest--but it is like checking on a patient in hospice. The end is coming, it is just the circumstances that are being examined. I grit my teeth every time.
I don't think it's that dire.
Yeah... the example was extreme for effect only.
In all this controversy I haven't seen much at all written, or considered, about all the other sports, the effect on the athletes, the fans, importance of the local communities... Sports and athletics are about much, much more than money. And all that "much, much" is why we even get involved with athletics and sports. Let those who are ruled and driven by their greed suffer the karma they are creating. Their lives won't be nearly as enjoyable...
They're thinking about it... I just don't think the decision makers care.
I listened to Kliakoff's opening remarks and was heartened! He said all the right things from my perspective. I'm happy to hear him say, in so many words, that money wasn't driving their decisions as the priority. And he's not ignoring it's importance.
As a recent subscriber, thank you John. As a Buff fan, I have spent the past few weeks in a state of mild to profound depression. The chatter I am hearing now is that ACC only interested in some sort of partnership with Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford and then Utah and Arizona schools headed to Big 12. So OSU, WSU and CU out in the cold. Have you heard anything about this? What about uneven revenue sharing for Oregon and Washington to keep conference together? And does it all matter anyway, as we move toward two mega-conferences? It is difficult to sort through all the rumors and speculation, but I so appreciate your insights.
Thanks for being here. Means a lot.
Why would anyone be interested in Utah over Colorado?
It just amazes me given the differences in media markets.
It's more like CU doesn't want to go back to the Big 12 and Utah is okay with it. At least that's my understanding.
That makes sense, but the reality is, Oregon State has a bigger media market than Utah.
The Networks are going to pay more for Portland than Salt Lake.
I just do not follow this interest in Utah.
I think you add SDSU and Fresno St. yesterday - and supplement with (take your pick) SMU, TCU, Baylor or Houston.
And totally freeze out the money grubbing philanderers in LA.
I didn't notice you Ducks freezing out Phil's money...
Looks like UCLA’s escape might not be as lucrative as expected. UC regents are investigating and one option under discussion is UCLA paying part of its new money to Cal to compensate for the blow to that program, says LA Times. Plus the California gov’s spokesman has pointedly noted that the state budget has been kind to UCLA lately. (Hint: Be a shame if something happened to the relationship.)
I’ve read that it’s all just saver-rattling. Nothing that really can be done.
To many numbers, too many ifs? Just want a smooth fall football schedule to enjoy with the PAC 12 going forward. It seems like it’s just too much to ask for. Money, money, money. A bummed fan.
USC and UCLA will no doubt want to continue to put a Pac-12 game on their schedule to appease their alumni on this coast. I for one hope the conference freezes them out for a good century.
Ha! Yeah, freeze them out and forgo the bigger gate receipts and possible TV revenue for say, Eastern Washington? Right.
TV’s where the money is, not gate receipts. You know that. I’ll take San Diego St or an ACC school. We got plenty of west coast games already, thank you!
Assuming UCLA makes it to the B1G one matchup I'm looking forward to is Kelly vs. his protégé Ryan Day along with Kelly's former OL coach Justin Frye. I don't see how UCLA prevents being stomped on by multiple B1G schools for years to come.
Solutions:
1. Definitely gut the Pac 12 Network immediately. In fact shut it down ASAP once contracts are concluded. No need to funnel money into a losing business endeavor any longer.
2. Definitely cut a deal with ESPN and ESPN+ and Apple TV. This is the future. Get on board now and reap rewards later.
3. Bring SDSU and Fresno State into the fold to replace UCLA and USC. Ironically they are better teams anyway and I think there is a very good chance that their fan bases will increase exponentially if added to the new Pac 12. They might not provide the tv eyeballs/LA punch of SC/UCLA but they will add some eyeballs to make up for the ones that were supposed to be watching SC/UCLA but apparently weren't anyway????
4. Move on with our lives and stop talking about this.
Sounds fine to me. Also: https://jeffreymcnamee.substack.com/p/ncaa-fbs-football-is-not-just-a-business?r=ca4fo&utm_medium=ios
Bring in Hawai’i, too. Yeah, yeah, less money and eyeballs. But they’re a brand on the West Coast.
And SJSU
Cal and UCLA alum here. UCLA doesn't know it, but it's going to win in the financials but lose forever in terms of football. USC will be fine because it's a national brand and dominates the LA recruiting market. But now, the rest of the Big 10, like Ohio State and Michigan, will come in and recruit LA like never before. And once UCLA starts losing, they'll be way down on the list for LA recruits. Oh, and they struggle to put butts in the stands at the Rose Bowl right now, wait until they're playing Indiana on a 90 degree day.
Strangely enough, Cal can win with this if the Pac 12 remains and the money is somewhat right. They can offer top California recruits a top education, the ability for the family to see them play, and the remaining tradition of playing teams like Oregon and Washington that still has cache with these players. And since Cal always played UCLA and USC each year, which typically meant 0-2 or 1-1, now you can replace those losses with more manageable games, which means a better record.
I'll bet in ten years, UCLA will look at their membership like Nebraska looks at it now: How did we become irrelevant after being a national name for so long?
I think it's fascinating to see what the Pac-12 does given the realities of these media rights deals. Kliavkoff wants a $40 million per year payout to Pac-12 schools and I could see ESPN/ESPN+ going for this if an ACC/Pac-12 scheduling agreement is arranged. This could be a way for ESPN to give the ACC more revenue to quiet them down without opening up the current media deal, which might offer an opening for some ACC schools to bolt for the SEC or Big Ten. However, I could also see ESPN wanting the Pac-12 to sign on to a deal that runs concurrent with the ACC deal and thus ends in 2036 - and no way do I see Pac-12 schools agreeing to that give revenue shortfall being locked into their current deal has caused. Maybe they get it done... but if not I wonder if the Pac-12 devolves into an every school for themself mode. In that case I see the follow results when the Pac-10 jumps into the abyss in August 2024: Arizona, ASC, Colorado and Utah land in the Big-12, Washington State and Oregon State go into the Mountain West, Cal and Stanford (with a little help from their LA cousins and an agreement to take a smaller revenue share) go to the Big Ten, and Oregon and Washington get a surprise invite from the SEC. Winners all around?
Oregon and Washington to the SEC would not be a win all around. Those travel schedules are AWFUL - no, it doesn’t matter if they charter planes - and they’d perennially be at the bottom but with less of a brand to build. Plus, who they hell cares about a UW-Missouri or UO-TAMU game?
My solution for the Pac 12?
Schedule counter-programming with top Pac 12 teams vs. ACC/SEC/BIG 12 at SoFi stadium in Los Angeles as part of a Pac 12 After Dark series, sponsored by XYZ.
Oregon vs. Alabama
Washington vs. Clemson
Washington State vs. Oklahoma State
etc. Have a halftime with Drake/Beyonce, etc. Make it a huge thing...LA people will watch that over Indiana v. UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Give the Pac 12 team playing in that game the revenue so that more valuable entities get more money.
Here is what I am having trouble understanding.
The entire Pac 10 ESPN package is only worth $300 million and Joe Rogan is paid $60 million a year for his podcast., or more than the rights to all of Oregon's games on ESPN.
It just seems to me there may be alternatives out there that don't rely on a delivery mechanism in which ESPN will generate $2 Billion for itself in ad revenue and keep 85% of it for itself.
Further, the new head of the NCAA (the SEC Commissioner) has all but confirmed the SEC plans on destroying the Pac 10 and the Big 12 financially, in part out of spite due to the rejection of the 12 team playoff model, which is looking dumber and dumber by the day.
The Conference needs to turn to its biggest boosters, and there are plenty of them, and develop a new format and delivery mechanism that brings most of the revenue directly to the schools and recognizes that the schools other than the Big 10 and SEC are simply on their own, are independent entities, and still have a valuable role to play.
Don't ask me how-I have no idea.
One word:
Saudis
Pac-LIV?
Okay, I laughed.
Great update JC and I truly think this is the most likely scenario. ESPN+ taking over for the P12N would generate additional TV revenue and finally end what may be called the greatest financial/strategic mistake in modern college athletics history. I still like the idea of some kind of partnership with the ACC but don't know how real that rumor is...we will see.
Amazon could be a player, too.
What Oregon needs to get into the Big Ten is less focus on football and more focus on research. Oregon has a larger athletics budget than research budget. In 2021, Oregon spent a measly $114 million on research.
Phil Knight donated hundreds of millions of dollars to the new science research center.
please John tell all of us if you would ditch the Bald Faced Truth for a better gig here in Portland? I do not assume ever, but I think I know your honest answer! Be careful please, as Larry Scott still reads your column every other day!