Adding the major Big 12 schools would be great. Would love to keep Oregon in the Pac-X and stabilize the conference. The problem is, why would anybody from the Big 12 look to jump now? Unless there is something I'm missing, the Big 12 teams you'd really want to pull would surely want Oregon and Washington to be part of the Pac. And, they'd need some guarantee on money. Right now, the Pac and the Big 12 are pretty similar in value. So why join a Pac=X conference where you know two of it's schools would love to jump if the Big 10 calls? For really no more $, or at least not enough to make much difference.
Then there is educational fit. It seems like that is a real thing, and the Pac-X definitely doesn't see the fit with many schools in the Big 12. I'm thinking religious ones, in particular. But also, how many AAU members are in the Big 12? Or Carnegie R1 members?
If the Pac-X was going to make a move like this, last year was the time to do it. It's a day late and dollar short at this point. Hell, they haven't even locked down San Diego State yet. Tells me all I need to know about the Pac-X. Athletics isn't enough of a priority for most of the schools, and it's the reason the conference will either be gone or a marginally better version of the Mountain West in the not too distant future.
I like SDSU and UNLV for expansion for the reasons you mention above, then add SMU and Houston to get into both the Dallas and Houston markets. Plus SMU and Houston can be travel "partners" for men's and women's basketball and other sports that play multiple times a week.
Also, we are you broadcasting this week when in Atlanta? Heading down from Knoxville on Thursday night with my son and would love to show him radio row.
JC, that's excellent stuff. Thank you. Consideration of the academic standing of potential members seems irrelevant today. Is that true? I ask because UNLV is largely a commuter school. It doesn't measure up to any Pac 12 university. And...having also worked at The Fresno Bee in an earlier life, I know the Bulldogs have fans from Bakersfield to Modesto and that farm towns north of Sacramento to the border identified with the farm country team at least as much as they did with the Bay Area schools. (Remember the green V on helmets?) Isn't Fresno State's media footprint more like the combined Central and Sacramento River valleys--minus maybe some amount of Sacto?
Drex, 81% of ASU students live off campus … as do 92% of SDSU students, 88% of UW and Utah students, 99% of Fresno students and 84% of UA students. At UNLV, that number is 95%.
This isn't a bug, it's a feature of the universities in the big West Coast cities.
Great stuff as always John. Very informative. I’m half Buff and half Trojan with 2 Duck kids. Love the Pac-12 more than anyone and am crushed what SC and UCLA have done. That being said I can’t fathom Ducks and Phil standing pat in a watered down Pac-12 Pac-14 conference. They want the Big 10 badly and as SC west coast guy I want to play the Ducks and Huskies!! Interesting times for sure.
SDSU and UNLV have my vote. SDSU is a good academic school and I'd prefer to keep the new teams to west coast/western states - hard pass on Texas. And as my friends in Boise have stated, Idaho is essentially a mountainous version of Oklahoma culturally, so a better fit for the Big 12.
John; It might be interesting to explore what a program like the Ducks would look like as a member of the Big 10 ($78m) vs PAC 10/12 ($35m). Can any program really expect to compete with less than half the money? Thanks
Highly likely that the next teams added into the B1G don’t receive a full share because it would lower the amounts the existing members get. So you might see Oregon and UW getting offered $45 million and taking it, because it’s still significantly more than the $35 million they’d get in the PAC.
Thanks for keeping us up on this, JC. With the season about to start, of course the focus will be on the games - but man, I have an insatiable appetite for what the future of of the Pac 12 will be.
Seems to me SDSU would jump at the chance to join. And UNLV may not have the brand value or on-field success the Pac covets, but let me ask you this: As a member of the Pac 12, playing in Allegiant Stadium, don't you reckon their profile would rise, and quickly, to the extent they would soon be competing on par with the established schools? I'd say the same for SMU, because the DFW market can be a gold mine. Remember they weren't always irrelevant. Before the SMU imploded, before they got the Death Penalty, they were really good. Anyone remember Eric Dickerson?
Boy. If the PAC 12 gets into Texas and these recruits start seeing what it is like to live in Seattle, Eugene, Los Angeles and Itah then the Big 12 will be impacted in a BIG WAY! I know this opinion is anathema here, but football is not everything. The culture, the institutions and the academics in the PAC 12 schools are far superior to those in the BIg 12 even with USC and UCLA leaving.
Great points , Big John….the X factor is the tradition of interstate and intrastate rivalries ! Dux vs Beavs, Cougs vs dawgs, etc ….you need to plug in
As your compadre Jon Wilner has pointed out if Four pAC schools may be to bigger piece of swallow for the Big 12. Taking 4 schools from the Pac-12. I think it might go after two more I don't know what that would be the northwest school duo or thr Bay Area Schools.In that event that would still leave eight members. I'm not so sure they would be better off if that happened going to the big 12 or simply adding the school if you mentioned. I mean where there really be a significant difference in what the big 12 ft pay them what they would get by themselves because of their special ability to fill that late time slot. I'm thinking that if the Pac-12 did break up and I think it the addition of Oregon State and Washington State to the Mountain West would make it the premier G5. which would ensure them a much more likely college football playoff berth for its champion. Particularly since the ACC has been effectively gutted
Just wondering why BYU has totally dropped off the radar. I get that Utah has limited TV households, but there are nearly 7 million LDS in the US & Canada and they're pretty dedicated. Of course that doesn't help Budweiser. They could definitely compete after going 5-0 against the Pac-12 last year.
Love the content. As a ASU Alum and PAC12 Diehard who is a born and bred Texan, I think we missed the boat last year to expand. But I've been saying to anyone who would listen, that P12 should do the following.
- Add UHouston (largest media market, most fertile recruiting area not in a P5 conference, very good athletic programs and their big name donors know George K very well I am told)
- Add Okie St (They would love to be able to spread their brand, it would help with media negotiations, and have solid athletic programs. Its also a rabid fanbase that travels
- Add TCU & SMU (It gets you into DFW market, both have great programs and great facilities and fanbases that travel. And they hate each other so you also get a huge rivalry, with the following..
- Add Texas Tech (They have facilities, a rabid fanbase, and donors that will keep the program relevant)
- Add San Diego St (you already nailed this one)
- Add Kansas (while they are not relevant in football, adding them from a Basketball perspective would be a coup).
Good point. All I know is that UNLV considers itself a commuter school--or at least it did when I lived there for four years in late aughts. It doesn't need much on campus or nearby off campus housing because its students largely drive in from elsewhere in Las Vegas, which is reflected in this: just 14 percent of students at UNLV today come from out of state--compared to 30 percent among AAU universities (which includes most of the Pac 12). The head of the university system back in the aughts was on a mission to elevate the quality of education at UNLV because of its relatively low academic standing. I didn't mean to slam UNLV other than to point out that it's not in league academically with Pac 12 schools today.
Adding the major Big 12 schools would be great. Would love to keep Oregon in the Pac-X and stabilize the conference. The problem is, why would anybody from the Big 12 look to jump now? Unless there is something I'm missing, the Big 12 teams you'd really want to pull would surely want Oregon and Washington to be part of the Pac. And, they'd need some guarantee on money. Right now, the Pac and the Big 12 are pretty similar in value. So why join a Pac=X conference where you know two of it's schools would love to jump if the Big 10 calls? For really no more $, or at least not enough to make much difference.
Then there is educational fit. It seems like that is a real thing, and the Pac-X definitely doesn't see the fit with many schools in the Big 12. I'm thinking religious ones, in particular. But also, how many AAU members are in the Big 12? Or Carnegie R1 members?
If the Pac-X was going to make a move like this, last year was the time to do it. It's a day late and dollar short at this point. Hell, they haven't even locked down San Diego State yet. Tells me all I need to know about the Pac-X. Athletics isn't enough of a priority for most of the schools, and it's the reason the conference will either be gone or a marginally better version of the Mountain West in the not too distant future.
I like SDSU and UNLV for expansion for the reasons you mention above, then add SMU and Houston to get into both the Dallas and Houston markets. Plus SMU and Houston can be travel "partners" for men's and women's basketball and other sports that play multiple times a week.
Also, we are you broadcasting this week when in Atlanta? Heading down from Knoxville on Thursday night with my son and would love to show him radio row.
I’m LIVE from Atlanta but currently slated to be in a studio. If that changes I’ll alert you.
JC, that's excellent stuff. Thank you. Consideration of the academic standing of potential members seems irrelevant today. Is that true? I ask because UNLV is largely a commuter school. It doesn't measure up to any Pac 12 university. And...having also worked at The Fresno Bee in an earlier life, I know the Bulldogs have fans from Bakersfield to Modesto and that farm towns north of Sacramento to the border identified with the farm country team at least as much as they did with the Bay Area schools. (Remember the green V on helmets?) Isn't Fresno State's media footprint more like the combined Central and Sacramento River valleys--minus maybe some amount of Sacto?
Drex, 81% of ASU students live off campus … as do 92% of SDSU students, 88% of UW and Utah students, 99% of Fresno students and 84% of UA students. At UNLV, that number is 95%.
This isn't a bug, it's a feature of the universities in the big West Coast cities.
Great stuff as always John. Very informative. I’m half Buff and half Trojan with 2 Duck kids. Love the Pac-12 more than anyone and am crushed what SC and UCLA have done. That being said I can’t fathom Ducks and Phil standing pat in a watered down Pac-12 Pac-14 conference. They want the Big 10 badly and as SC west coast guy I want to play the Ducks and Huskies!! Interesting times for sure.
SDSU and UNLV have my vote. SDSU is a good academic school and I'd prefer to keep the new teams to west coast/western states - hard pass on Texas. And as my friends in Boise have stated, Idaho is essentially a mountainous version of Oklahoma culturally, so a better fit for the Big 12.
John; It might be interesting to explore what a program like the Ducks would look like as a member of the Big 10 ($78m) vs PAC 10/12 ($35m). Can any program really expect to compete with less than half the money? Thanks
Highly likely that the next teams added into the B1G don’t receive a full share because it would lower the amounts the existing members get. So you might see Oregon and UW getting offered $45 million and taking it, because it’s still significantly more than the $35 million they’d get in the PAC.
Thanks for keeping us up on this, JC. With the season about to start, of course the focus will be on the games - but man, I have an insatiable appetite for what the future of of the Pac 12 will be.
Seems to me SDSU would jump at the chance to join. And UNLV may not have the brand value or on-field success the Pac covets, but let me ask you this: As a member of the Pac 12, playing in Allegiant Stadium, don't you reckon their profile would rise, and quickly, to the extent they would soon be competing on par with the established schools? I'd say the same for SMU, because the DFW market can be a gold mine. Remember they weren't always irrelevant. Before the SMU imploded, before they got the Death Penalty, they were really good. Anyone remember Eric Dickerson?
Boy. If the PAC 12 gets into Texas and these recruits start seeing what it is like to live in Seattle, Eugene, Los Angeles and Itah then the Big 12 will be impacted in a BIG WAY! I know this opinion is anathema here, but football is not everything. The culture, the institutions and the academics in the PAC 12 schools are far superior to those in the BIg 12 even with USC and UCLA leaving.
Great points , Big John….the X factor is the tradition of interstate and intrastate rivalries ! Dux vs Beavs, Cougs vs dawgs, etc ….you need to plug in
“tradition” into your betting equation .
You can NOT buy emotions with money !
Interesting but we do not know how it will shake out. Lots of interesting conjecture.
When will we know John! Go Aztecs. Heading to the first two games at Snapdragon!
Nearly Endless Scenarios!….Stay Tuned.
As your compadre Jon Wilner has pointed out if Four pAC schools may be to bigger piece of swallow for the Big 12. Taking 4 schools from the Pac-12. I think it might go after two more I don't know what that would be the northwest school duo or thr Bay Area Schools.In that event that would still leave eight members. I'm not so sure they would be better off if that happened going to the big 12 or simply adding the school if you mentioned. I mean where there really be a significant difference in what the big 12 ft pay them what they would get by themselves because of their special ability to fill that late time slot. I'm thinking that if the Pac-12 did break up and I think it the addition of Oregon State and Washington State to the Mountain West would make it the premier G5. which would ensure them a much more likely college football playoff berth for its champion. Particularly since the ACC has been effectively gutted
Just wondering why BYU has totally dropped off the radar. I get that Utah has limited TV households, but there are nearly 7 million LDS in the US & Canada and they're pretty dedicated. Of course that doesn't help Budweiser. They could definitely compete after going 5-0 against the Pac-12 last year.
Love the content. As a ASU Alum and PAC12 Diehard who is a born and bred Texan, I think we missed the boat last year to expand. But I've been saying to anyone who would listen, that P12 should do the following.
- Add UHouston (largest media market, most fertile recruiting area not in a P5 conference, very good athletic programs and their big name donors know George K very well I am told)
- Add Okie St (They would love to be able to spread their brand, it would help with media negotiations, and have solid athletic programs. Its also a rabid fanbase that travels
- Add TCU & SMU (It gets you into DFW market, both have great programs and great facilities and fanbases that travel. And they hate each other so you also get a huge rivalry, with the following..
- Add Texas Tech (They have facilities, a rabid fanbase, and donors that will keep the program relevant)
- Add San Diego St (you already nailed this one)
- Add Kansas (while they are not relevant in football, adding them from a Basketball perspective would be a coup).
- Add Gonzaga for Basketball and olympic sports
Good point. All I know is that UNLV considers itself a commuter school--or at least it did when I lived there for four years in late aughts. It doesn't need much on campus or nearby off campus housing because its students largely drive in from elsewhere in Las Vegas, which is reflected in this: just 14 percent of students at UNLV today come from out of state--compared to 30 percent among AAU universities (which includes most of the Pac 12). The head of the university system back in the aughts was on a mission to elevate the quality of education at UNLV because of its relatively low academic standing. I didn't mean to slam UNLV other than to point out that it's not in league academically with Pac 12 schools today.