That would be music to my ears as a UCLA fan who hates this move to the B1G. I don’t think it’s realistic though with the annual revenue they expect to pull in with their new conference.
Too early to worry about this, but really hoping ESPN and the Pac-12 avoid FRIDAY night broadcasts. High school games on those nights typically get local radio coverage. Moving college games to Fridays creates a conflict. Such a conflict already exists this season with OSU-UW.... the first weekend of state playoffs in Oregon.
Additionally, in a variety of Pac10L markets, simply getting to Thurs/Friday night games on time is extremely difficult, if not impossible and/or extremely undesirable, for huge swaths of fans that might normally attend a Saturday game.
I know we need money and are in a tough spot, but we'll be circling the drain on interest at a lot of schools, eventually, if we just keep making the in person experience something nobody cares about.
I grew up going to games -- that's why I became a fan. It continues to lose me as I get older with that part of it being so completely dismissed on the importance/consideration meter.
Good or not, I think we can be certain Friday night games are going to be part of the deal for the Pac, just like the 10:30pm ET games on Saturdays. ESPN and other broadcasters have no interest in how many fans attend in person. If anything, they'd prefer all those people stay home and watch on TV, just like the COVID season.
I think it's sad .. and also that it legitimately risks the long term future of the product, particularly out West where the fanbases have been evolving and eroding .. at least in terms of demonstrable passion and support
(I'm speaking in relative terms as compared to the sport in other parts of the country)
Very true, Buck. College football keeps getting further and further from its roots as a regional game where traditions were just as important as the game on the field. It really is becoming NFL-lite. I like and watch the NFL, but a big part of the allure of college football was that it was a very different product than the NFL. No more.
I think the assumption the networks are operating under, and what their data tells them, is that while there are likely fans that will tune out the new product, there will be even more who tune in because they will get more matchups featuring the handful of major brand name teams than they do now. Like you, I'm not so sure that's true. Time will tell, I suppose.
At some point, I just wonder if the connection between "Michigan" and "a roster of players, getting paid, half of whom just transferred in (their 3rd transfer in 5 years)" will be harder and harder to make.
The whole "school" and "student athlete" part of this is heading in a very disconnected direction.
The PAC has now solidified its position as an also ran… it’s going to be the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday night filler of space…and it will be the late night option on Saturday’s… it will get the Beth Mowen’s of the espn world calling their games… this isn’t even a 3rd place finish… does anyone really believe that there’s an audience for Oregon-Colorado??? … or WSU-Cal??…and saddest part of this saga is that they did this to themselves… there’s no spinning a win here…
The bigger the playoff field, the more interest nationwide. FCS has 24-team playoff. March Madness has 68 with play-ins. With all the chaos in college football and the growing mismatch in strength of various conferences, a large playoff field is the best way to bring order--to ensure the best team wins it all--and to restore national interest in what has become a boring playoff chase. The same six or eight teams every year.
Agree with Mark Gilman about the high school games but I bet it goes in the other direction. To maximize the payout the Pac 12 will have to have both Friday and Saturday after dark windows. Who knows, maybe Thursdays too.
John, there is no Tier 1 window availability on ABC for the PAC on Saturdays. The 3:30 ET window on ABC will be SEC. The 8 PM ET window will be SEC or ACC. And of course, the PAC can't do Noon ET games. As a result, the B10 deal is not a win for the PAC as it relates to ESPN & ABC for Tier 1. It is stunning to me that you and Wilner are not picking up on this issue. The PAC and B12 both will have to rely on Fox or CBS for weekly guaranteed Tier 1 exposure on Saturdays. NBC won't spend anymore beyond ND and the B10.
The silence from Phil Knight is deafening. Where and when does he influence the ultimate decision for the Ducks specifically and the rest of the Pac 12 in general?
In 2021, ESPN lost 8 million cable and satellite subscribers, finishing with around 75 million total subscribers. That 8 million subscriber loss represented 10% of ESPN’s overall subscriber base and accelerated a calamitous decline from over 100 million subscribers just over a decade ago. The loss of those eight million subscribers will cost the network roughly a billion a year in recurring revenue across all ESPN network properties…representing the largest yearly subscriber loss in ESPN history.
ESPN’s future as a standalone cable entity is even more dire. Why? Because streaming isn’t going to save ESPN’s business either, no matter how much bragging to the contrary company executives attempt about ESPN+.
The consensus view is that ESPN will lose around 5 million subscribers a year between now and 2030ish, eventually settling at a floor of 50 million subscribers. What’s important to note is that ESPN would be losing money hand over fist if this, the consensus view, occurs. Because as ESPN’s revenue declines the amount it can afford to pay for sports rights, at least if profitability is the goal, will decline substantially too
Just 22.3 million subscribers currently have ESPN+. Many of these “subscribers” aren’t real subscribers either, they are included in rolled up bundled streaming options that are providing ESPN+ at virtually no cost. And the streaming business in general is still producing a massive deficit
Let me explain the basic math here and show you the problems that are destined to arise for ESPN in future years.
Links avoid a lot of copy and paste. Especially when economics are involved. You may have to be a bit more open minded to understand his economic analysis is sound. Travis is not my favorite either, but this one is worth reading.
I’m just waiting until all the the BIG GUYS get through tossing their money and mouths around. I’ll be comfortably sitting on the couch waiting for Game Day.
Yes, ESPN/ABC has exclusive rights to the SEC starting in 2024. Part of the deal is that ABC will show "at least" one SEC game on ABC, typically at 3:30ET. However the release I saw indicated that SEC games could also be shown on ABC for Saturday Night Football at 7pm ET.
I think it's safe to assume that SEC games are always going to get priority for the prime time ABC games, as they are obviously going to draw more viewers. Plus ESPN/ABC have all the ACC games as well, and their teams reside in larger TV markets than the 10-school Pac. I'd be very surprised if the Pac gets on ABC more than once in an entire season, and maybe not at all.
wait for the other combatants to commit, and then counter attack. It is sound strategy, If you have a sound plan. But all plans go out the window once you get hit square in the eye. We will see.
Wouldn’t it be funny if ESPN threw a crapton of money at the PAC to lure USC and UCLA back. Just to piss off fox.
That would be music to my ears as a UCLA fan who hates this move to the B1G. I don’t think it’s realistic though with the annual revenue they expect to pull in with their new conference.
Too early to worry about this, but really hoping ESPN and the Pac-12 avoid FRIDAY night broadcasts. High school games on those nights typically get local radio coverage. Moving college games to Fridays creates a conflict. Such a conflict already exists this season with OSU-UW.... the first weekend of state playoffs in Oregon.
I agree Mark
Additionally, in a variety of Pac10L markets, simply getting to Thurs/Friday night games on time is extremely difficult, if not impossible and/or extremely undesirable, for huge swaths of fans that might normally attend a Saturday game.
I know we need money and are in a tough spot, but we'll be circling the drain on interest at a lot of schools, eventually, if we just keep making the in person experience something nobody cares about.
I grew up going to games -- that's why I became a fan. It continues to lose me as I get older with that part of it being so completely dismissed on the importance/consideration meter.
Sadly, the bad time slots like Friday nights are the only leverage a PAC 10 will have in media negotiations.
Good or not, I think we can be certain Friday night games are going to be part of the deal for the Pac, just like the 10:30pm ET games on Saturdays. ESPN and other broadcasters have no interest in how many fans attend in person. If anything, they'd prefer all those people stay home and watch on TV, just like the COVID season.
I suspect you're correct Mike.
I think it's sad .. and also that it legitimately risks the long term future of the product, particularly out West where the fanbases have been evolving and eroding .. at least in terms of demonstrable passion and support
(I'm speaking in relative terms as compared to the sport in other parts of the country)
Very true, Buck. College football keeps getting further and further from its roots as a regional game where traditions were just as important as the game on the field. It really is becoming NFL-lite. I like and watch the NFL, but a big part of the allure of college football was that it was a very different product than the NFL. No more.
Right there with you Mike.
I know there seems to be no stopping this change, but it really is a fundamental change from why CFB has been so unique and popular.
I really don't believe there is long term demand for an "NFL Lite" that is sort of kind of maybe related to college branding?
I guess I should tighten that up to say that there is no demand from me and the kind of folks I know for that sort of thing.
I think the assumption the networks are operating under, and what their data tells them, is that while there are likely fans that will tune out the new product, there will be even more who tune in because they will get more matchups featuring the handful of major brand name teams than they do now. Like you, I'm not so sure that's true. Time will tell, I suppose.
For sure..
At some point, I just wonder if the connection between "Michigan" and "a roster of players, getting paid, half of whom just transferred in (their 3rd transfer in 5 years)" will be harder and harder to make.
The whole "school" and "student athlete" part of this is heading in a very disconnected direction.
The PAC has now solidified its position as an also ran… it’s going to be the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday night filler of space…and it will be the late night option on Saturday’s… it will get the Beth Mowen’s of the espn world calling their games… this isn’t even a 3rd place finish… does anyone really believe that there’s an audience for Oregon-Colorado??? … or WSU-Cal??…and saddest part of this saga is that they did this to themselves… there’s no spinning a win here…
The bigger the playoff field, the more interest nationwide. FCS has 24-team playoff. March Madness has 68 with play-ins. With all the chaos in college football and the growing mismatch in strength of various conferences, a large playoff field is the best way to bring order--to ensure the best team wins it all--and to restore national interest in what has become a boring playoff chase. The same six or eight teams every year.
You would think that ESPN now might like to see the Pac12/Big12 merge which would
create at nation wide conference for them to televise.
The problem is that the B12 has very few large TV draws left in it.
(really none actually... just some medium draws and a bunch of very small draws...at least from what I've seen on all the reporting around this)
A nationwide conference of teams that don't draw many eyeballs isn't generally attractive to a network, especially when they have to pay for it.
Thanks John, for keeping us abreast of these critical times for the PAC and for college football.
Agree with Mark Gilman about the high school games but I bet it goes in the other direction. To maximize the payout the Pac 12 will have to have both Friday and Saturday after dark windows. Who knows, maybe Thursdays too.
John, there is no Tier 1 window availability on ABC for the PAC on Saturdays. The 3:30 ET window on ABC will be SEC. The 8 PM ET window will be SEC or ACC. And of course, the PAC can't do Noon ET games. As a result, the B10 deal is not a win for the PAC as it relates to ESPN & ABC for Tier 1. It is stunning to me that you and Wilner are not picking up on this issue. The PAC and B12 both will have to rely on Fox or CBS for weekly guaranteed Tier 1 exposure on Saturdays. NBC won't spend anymore beyond ND and the B10.
The silence from Phil Knight is deafening. Where and when does he influence the ultimate decision for the Ducks specifically and the rest of the Pac 12 in general?
What makes us think PK cares about any of the P12 beyond the Ducks?
Pray God ESPN stays out of the B1G deal. I am now grinning from ear to ear.
In 2021, ESPN lost 8 million cable and satellite subscribers, finishing with around 75 million total subscribers. That 8 million subscriber loss represented 10% of ESPN’s overall subscriber base and accelerated a calamitous decline from over 100 million subscribers just over a decade ago. The loss of those eight million subscribers will cost the network roughly a billion a year in recurring revenue across all ESPN network properties…representing the largest yearly subscriber loss in ESPN history.
ESPN’s future as a standalone cable entity is even more dire. Why? Because streaming isn’t going to save ESPN’s business either, no matter how much bragging to the contrary company executives attempt about ESPN+.
The consensus view is that ESPN will lose around 5 million subscribers a year between now and 2030ish, eventually settling at a floor of 50 million subscribers. What’s important to note is that ESPN would be losing money hand over fist if this, the consensus view, occurs. Because as ESPN’s revenue declines the amount it can afford to pay for sports rights, at least if profitability is the goal, will decline substantially too
Just 22.3 million subscribers currently have ESPN+. Many of these “subscribers” aren’t real subscribers either, they are included in rolled up bundled streaming options that are providing ESPN+ at virtually no cost. And the streaming business in general is still producing a massive deficit
Let me explain the basic math here and show you the problems that are destined to arise for ESPN in future years.
https://www.outkick.com/espn-lost-8-million-subscribers-in-2021-10-of-its-overall-subscriber-base/
I think we’re in a CFB bubble, and by the end of their contracts the networks will regret overpaying for the inventory.
You need to read the whole linked column to understand why the economics are different for ESPN.
Links avoid a lot of copy and paste. Especially when economics are involved. You may have to be a bit more open minded to understand his economic analysis is sound. Travis is not my favorite either, but this one is worth reading.
I’m just waiting until all the the BIG GUYS get through tossing their money and mouths around. I’ll be comfortably sitting on the couch waiting for Game Day.
John,
1. Does this $1.23B include all league bball rights as well as football?
2. Will bowl games and football playoff games bring in additional revenues?
3. Will the ncaa basketball tournament also bring additional coin to the beloved coffers of our schools?
Is ABCs deal with the SEC exclusive? Can the Pac12 get in ABC? I'm not clear what the arrangement is.
Yes, ESPN/ABC has exclusive rights to the SEC starting in 2024. Part of the deal is that ABC will show "at least" one SEC game on ABC, typically at 3:30ET. However the release I saw indicated that SEC games could also be shown on ABC for Saturday Night Football at 7pm ET.
I think it's safe to assume that SEC games are always going to get priority for the prime time ABC games, as they are obviously going to draw more viewers. Plus ESPN/ABC have all the ACC games as well, and their teams reside in larger TV markets than the 10-school Pac. I'd be very surprised if the Pac gets on ABC more than once in an entire season, and maybe not at all.
wait for the other combatants to commit, and then counter attack. It is sound strategy, If you have a sound plan. But all plans go out the window once you get hit square in the eye. We will see.
who do you want to see possibly join the PAC-12?
The entire Mountain West conference