“Washington’s Husky Stadium is located four miles from UW’s campus, but it’s also one of the best settings in college football.” This is not correct. Husky stadium is adjacent to the campus. The furthest any class room is to Husky stadium is .7 or .8 miles by foot, according to Google maps.
I was very confused by this as well. I just went to the game last week and walked through campus to get to the stadium. Never did I think I left campus.
My bad, I didn't see your response before I posted mine. I can't believe I'm defending Husky Stadium as a Ducks fan. Is it bad that I hate them less after attending my first game there? Amazing experience.
It’s not bad Joshua. I think (hope!) UW and Ducks fan bases are learning more respect for each other, and it’s made possible by parity on the field. Husky Stadium does stand as the greatest setting in football, of course I’m totally biased. The only thing better is if the day was clear and you could also see Mt. Rainer. Is there another stadium that overlooks a volcano!?
I spent 41/2 years there and knew the campus had not moved. LOL There is not a campus on the West Coast that can showcase a setting like UW. As the Oregon fans can attest here that attended Saturday's game.
Dave Bartoo is required reading. Anytime I see an interview with him, I'll read it. He's probably the only person who should have a say in who makes the playoff. His "eye test" comment was especially compelling.
Hey, how is it going to be for the Trojans when they are in the B1G?! It is not going to get better for them. They aren't going to go into Michigan or Ohio and out-recruit the incumbents. They will be spending a lot more time in the air and on the road which will wear down their athletes. I doubt the west coast viewership will follow USC to the B1G so their eyeballs will go down. This will be the kiss of death for USC and UCLA, both schools in a metro area that is disintegrating. USC has under-perfomed its talent level for decades. The culture there is obviously a disaster. Lincoln Riley is obviously not the answer. If Beavers fans have to fear any school poaching Coach Smith, it is USC in my opinion, not MSU or any other eastern team. Smith comes from SoCal. That is his stomping grounds. We know he likes the Pac NW because he has been in the region from college and throughout his professional career. But every person thinks about going home someday. I love Coach Smith and always have. His ability to create culture and stability would be perfect for USC. But don't tell them!!
I've read several sources claiming coach Riley has lost the locker room and other sources saying Riley wants out of SoCal. I think the performance of both lines is way under performing. I've never understood how a decent coach at USC is not in the playoff hunt yearly. I think they lose twice more this season. It's incredulous to fail in that setting. Wait...did I say a decent coach? Is Riley a fraud? We'll see. Tick, tick tick. (But he does have a mansion with 12 bathrooms)
We already knew that USC's defense was average at best. Now you compound that issue with the fact that their O-Line isn't as good as last year's was AND USC is hitting the meat of their schedule with teams having better defenses (Notre Dame, Utah, UW, Oregon & UCLA).
Utah's defensive line will terrorize Caleb Williams & their backs/secondary will be ready to pick him off. If Utah has a passable offense (double-entendre intended), they win straight up.
USC can't stop Washington's offense & I don't see them beating a much-more balanced Ducks team in Autzen.
The question is who's coaching & quarterbacking USC next year. I can easily see Riley bailing for a pro job & Caleb would be crazy to trade $2-$3 million in NIL money (which he will make anyway as a high first-round pick) and delay the financial windfall of his next (non-rookie) NFL contract by another year. Depending upon how the balance of how this year pans out for USC, I can foresee nightmare scenarios playing out for them next year.
Oct 18, 2023·edited Oct 18, 2023Liked by John Canzano
It's called "plausible deniability" John (but you know that) . Coaches don't talk directly with schools sniffing around, their agent always does it and relays the info. Agents don't answer to anyone except their clients. WSU and Dickert, just like OSU and J. Smith, are between a rock and a hard place once the season ends and none of the scenarios going forward are very pretty even if they end up with a bunch of cash.
Smith and Dickert have been unwittingly cast into a position where each has to choose between being a hero and a villain. But they do have a choice. Both have already earned more coaching football than 99.9% of their profession, and still have a couple decades of earnings ahead of them.
While the zeitgeist seems to demand celebrating those who grab the bag above all else, both of them still get to decide where (and who) they want to be. And it's unlikely anything they accomplish in East Lansing could compare to the opportunity they have if they take on the challenge of piloting OSU/WSU through this next chapter.
I completely agree with this. MSU is never going to be the big dog in the B1G or even in the state of Michigan. Money, as an incentive, has its limits for someone who just loves football. I would much rather be in a position to be hero in the Pac NW and make a big difference to tens or hundreds of thousands of fans around the world than be another widget in the media machine that is B1G. Vince Lombardi made his reputation in little ole Green Bay beating all the much better funded NFL teams all over the USA and this before salary caps. Lombardi is still revered today, 60 years later.
Right. The Harsin family balance sheet is $20MM+ larger for taking the Auburn job, and suffering the indignities that came with it, but is his family happier than if he'd stayed put at Boise? (And, yes, I know things were less perfect than they appeared.)
Special situations like Dickert and Smith are facing come about organically, and if you give one up, you're highly unlikely to get another shot. You're just another coach with a lake house and a beach house and a healthy family limited partnership that you hope doesn't negatively impact the character development of your kids, who will forever struggle to define the location of 'home.'
If paradise for Smith/Dickert is somewhere east of the Rockies, then it seems inevitable they'll make a move eventually, much like Mike Leach did. But there is absolutely nothing that requires us to treat it as a fait accompli, or to view a decision to stay as taking on a lesser challenge.
We know that Coach Smith is still very friendly with Mike Riley. We also know that Mike Riley, Corvallis HS football star when I was in junior high school in Albany (we all heard about him), kept grabbing for the golden ring, maybe because he was exposed to big time football at Alabama and OSU never seemed quite good enough. Who knows. But it never worked out for Riley. Every time he left Oregon State, it blew up on him. Left OSU in 1999 for NFL San Diego Chargers and that did not pan out. Came back to Corvallis in 2003. Left OSU again for Nebraska in 2015. Back to Corvallis again in 2018 uprooting his family each time. I wonder if Riley and Smith have conversations about the downside of job hopping.
It actually did work out for Riley. He's had a great life - personal and professional. He's one of the great coaches in OSU history. Like a lot of other very good coaches, the NFL wasn't a fit - nor was it a fit for Lou Holtz and Nick Saban and others. But he came back to Oregon State and did some wonderful things for the Beavers in difficult circumstances. Nebraska, a storied program, went looking for Riley when they needed help. Oregon State's administration and boosters were putting heat on Riley because OSU wasn't Oregon - he jumped at a school that was absolutely a step above OSU. It didn't pan out for Riley, as he believed it would, but Nebraska was a bigger mess than Oregon State and nobody realized it at the time. Scott Frost, Nebraska's golden boy, found out the same thing.
Riley was a great coach at Oregon State and has had a wonderful career.
Not saying Mike Riley didn't do well, financially or that there is anything wrong with him personally. I like him. But I have always said he wasn't aggressive enough for my tastes, especially on D. He did not have the killer gene that Dennis Erickson does (and that Jonathan Smith also displays). Riley was also a good recruiter and I don't take that away from him. What I am saying is that Riley likely found that the Grass is not always Greener. He could have done just as well staying at OSU and hiring more aggressive coordinators since that is his weakness at all levels (just having the name "Nebraska" behind your program does not solve the issues with your coaching style). Had he done that, Riley would be in line to be the "hero coach" that Smith will eventually become (if not already there). The single element of coaching that I can isolate that separates the good from the great is "aggressiveness" in scheme, in execution, in fundamentals like tackling technique and leverage, and in accountability. Smith, with Bray as his coordinator, checks all those boxes. What are some other coaches who do? You named Saban and Holtz. Both do (I got to see Holtz up close when he was at Minnesota for two years). Erickson did as well, though accountability for players off the field was an issue. Pete Carroll? Succeeds at every level because of aggressiveness and accountability. Tom Osborne at Nebraska? It is what separates him from those who followed. Jim Harbaugh was aggressive but lacked accountability until the past 2-3 years. He has apparently solved that problem and his team record shows the results. Look at any coach in America present or past, and the great ones all had those two factors locked down.
You are unrealistic through your Beaver lens. There is no possibility of a decent P5 that can be rebuilt. Not unless current P5 teams leave their conference to join the new PAC conference. Extremely unlikely anytime soon.
Your opinion. I think there will be another shuffle of the deck. John has said so here repeatedly and I agree. The PAC2 need to hold down the fort until other P5 teams become available. It will happen in the next 2-3 years. The dust is a long way from settling in the FBS world.
I could see another reshuffle of the deck, but in your scenario the other P5 teams that would want to are mid-to-low tier in other conferences who would try to go somewhere "to win." But, the money wouldn't follow, so they likely would stay where they are.
I hope you're right, but I'm doubtful. I think the best we can hope for is a reverse MWC with the Pac-12 name. Whether that's good enough to remain Power 5 or not...doubtful.
OSU and WSU have a two-year “grace period” as a Power 5 conference, beginning next Summer, until Summer 2026.
If COVID and conference realignment have taught us anything, it’s that predicting 2.5 years into the future is folly.
Thirty-two months from now, the ACC may be gone, which would leave Stanford and Cal available. If the ACC manages to survive, the academics at those schools may not tolerate cross-country travel; the UC accountants won’t like the travel costs.
The Big-12 has taken three of the worst athletic programs in the PAC-12. Does anyone want to bet that Coach Diva will stay in Boulder long-term?
What do Texas and Oklahoma know that we don’t know? They’re leaving a conference they dominate for the SEC. It makes for a much harder path to the playoffs in the short-term, but it positions them for the B1G/SEC mega conference long-term.
What does that tell you about the future of the Big-12? Without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big-12 is bunch of small-market schools that are not “national brands.” Sound familiar?
The Dawgs, Ducks and USC will find the path to the CFP much harder when it goes through Ann Arbor, Columbus, Madison and State College as well as Eugene, Seattle and Los Angeles. A couple of 3-5 loss seasons as well as road-trips to Maryland and Rutgers could change a lot.
Who the hell knows what 2026 looks like, besides a complete shitshow.
Does anyone believe that “relegation” won’t happen to Kansas and Kansas State, Iowa and Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland and Mississippi State?
At least the Beavers and Cougars have been through the culling of the conferences that is inevitable as TV creates its 32-team “college football” that disregards everything that makes college football great.
If they play this correctly and strategically, OSU and WSU can be well-positioned in 2-3 years when the the shit REALLY hits the fan.
At this point, I feel like, “Fine, create your 32-team collegiate/corporate XFL league, and the other 90 Division 1 teams can get back to regional and geographical rivalries, and end-of-season bowl games that don’t pretend to crown a “national champion.”
You know, the things that made college football great before the BCS started us down this slope.
Question? Why would either Smith or Dickert stay if they are no longer in a Power 5 conference with a chance of going to the playoffs? It wouldn't make sense, neither are nearing retirement. Loyalty? Come on..... They are not the ones who were involved in screwing up the conference, but they work for parties that are. Dickert is sniffing around for a lifeboat and I bet Smith is too.
Douglas and JC, Diekert? How much $, off the hook as of now for the buyout of Tucker's contract, is Sparty going to offer J. Smith? I know that it is Smith's alma mater but coach in the Power 2 or wherever OSU ends up? Play before millions of viewers or hundreds of thousands of viewers? Have a B1G recruiting budget or a comparatively next-to-nothing budget?
Michigan State is one of 3 B1G teams to make the playoff (thanks to a Ducks loss in E. Lansing and a Ducks win at Stanford) and has played Michigan toe to toe since the 'Little Brother' call out.
Smith is the more experienced HC and a better fit for the B1G, IMO, than Diekert. At MSU he would have a development program with better players.
It depend on OSU’s level of commitment (budget, salaries for he and his staff), and where more money fits in his priorities for his family.
He’s making great money in Corvallis, he has kids in school, and OSU will probably re-work his deal to include all of the above, with a much higher buy-out.
Still, OSU may lose him. I simply expect them to do everything humanly possible to keep him.
Hopefully Smith stays through the Grace Period and surveys the options then.
He’s a GREAT coach (remember the dumpster fire he inherited).
bs, johnathon smith is known for what he has done, they were claiming he might be one of the best coaches in the cfb who does alot with little and claimeing how great he has done on prime time gameday a couple weeks back, herbstriet was saying it. he is not an unknown, ducks fan here
Brian, settle down and take a deep breath. Jon's not being vindictive - he doesn't give a rip about Michigan State or have any desire for Smith to leave, he's simply offering a reasonable scenario considering the challenges Dickert and Smith are going to have recruiting and retaining staff, along with Power 5 kind of athletes. There's no "Duck-talk" going on, just an unbiased view staring at some big challenges for the Pac-2.
Tough to say. Smith seems like a pretty loyal dude.....but the $$ is the $$ and if they show it to him all bets are off. I really hope he stays loyal, we see a reverse engineering of the MWC which see their best 6 (Wyoming, AF, BSU, SDSU, FSU and CSU) and bring in Tulane and Memphis. I think Smith sticks around with a scenario like this playing out.
MSU is a steaming dumpster facing the overhang of a multi-year court battle with a former coach who seems determined to drag the program through hell rather than accept even a very large 8-figure settlement.
The mega-booster who underwrote the Tucker contract recently dropped $4BN on an NBA team in Phoenix, and no one seems sure whether he's even still interested in supporting MSU football. At the very least, he's very engaged with the Suns.
Your main NIL collective just dropped a bunch of players in the middle of the season because it didn't meet fundraising targets.
Oh, and the MSU roster will likely resemble 2022 Colorado once the next portal window opens (assuming players don't start making business decisions this weekend in what looks to be an egregious mismatch against UM).
As I understand it, MSU has dozens of deep pocket boosters. They could buy the PAC 12 if they wanted. There are a lot of billionaires in America who will pay big time for their toys.
I don't doubt that they have deep pocketed boosters, but it should (will) concern any prospective coach when said boosters don't step up to prevent the public implosion of a collective.
MSU's debacle hasn't garnered the same national attention as Florida's Jayden Rashada faceplant, but it's quite possibly more damaging to the program.
That's the new reality of the NIL/portal era: programs can no longer trade on their POTENTIAL to spend, but will be judged whether they actually hit confirm on the wire transfer. MSU stakeholders are going to feel this acutely in a way they never have before.
When does the selection committee consider a top25 win? At the time the game was played or at the time the committee meets?
ESPN loves to frontload SEC teams that have no business being in the top 25, and it seems to ensure that Georgia, Bama, etc can have that strength of schedule argument while playing really weak out of conference teams.
Does he discuss the manipulation of the AP top25 wins? Because that seems to be a strong reason we can't have two Pac12 teams in the playoffs.
Yeah, SC and Oregon get credit for beating a "ranked" team when they defeated Colorado, who will be nothing more than a "rank" team by the end of the season.
Kansas started out 5-0 in 2022 and some teams got "ranked team" credit for beating them. KU lost 6 of its last 7 games and finished 6-7. They were not a quality team and no one should have gotten "ranked team" credit for beating them.
The column explains the mystery behind the Playoff ranking a bit. Apparently it is whom you beat, rather than whom you lost to?
OSU has beaten two currently ranked teams, but lost to a now unranked WSU.
OR has not beaten any program currently ranked, but lost to No. 5 UW by 3-pts.
The "good" loss doesn't hold as much water in comparison.
Thus, SEC teams which seem to hold onto their rankings at season's end benefit the teams that beat them. The SEC "bias" keeps more teams ranked so wins over SEC middle tier programs, benefits the SEC leaders at the end.
ntm, if you go back and look at the games prior to pac12 rival week and see how many 1 loss or undefeated teams have lost that game in the last 20 yrs yu will see at leas 5 National championships and playoffs that were not seen by just oregon and standford and wash, and at least five ny6 bowl games just from that extra game before rivals where bama plays liberty and pac teams are playing ranked oponents in 12 years oregon lost like 5 of those games 2 would have sent them to 2 mor NC games and 3 would have put them in a ny6 bowl same with stanford and oregon lost like 3 of those 5 games lost by 3, i think 2019 asu/ore, last year vs ore wash, 2013 oregon, etc . just think what 4-5 nattys and 5 more fiesta and rose bowls would have made pac12 look like had they played 8 conf games
Kansas is a good example, but not in the way you state. They were not improperly ranked when they were 5-0. However Jaylon Daniels was the whole reason they were doing great, and they once he was injured, the team fell drastically in ability, and no longer deserved ranked status.
So if John is correct, if it is at the time the committee meets, then they are losing information that hurts those five teams defeated by Kansas.
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors play on a stadium on campus. The moved out of Aloha Stadium because it was unsafe, was supposed to be demolished and rebuilt. None of it has happened yet. So they will be playing on campus for many years. Unlike in Aloha Stadium, they seem to actually fill up the stadium for a better atmosphere.
is it me or doesit feel like football is setting up this redemption heartfelt story where he couldn't beat UGA, couldn't win a title at auburn, then goes to oregon and still cant win at UGAor the rival games and its all set up for a conf championship win vs wash to get redemtion and go to the playoff with a chance to win a title like his dad but with a different school on hte west and possibly play UGA for that shot. You could not write a better story, his dad in ducks gear in tears at the UGA game cause he saw dan encuaraging him meeting him on the feild every bad series and then maybe a possibility to set his wrongs write by playing UGA for a title the first one at Oregon. Sounds like a 30 for 30
Oregon State will win a tough game at Arizona and will defeat UW in Corvallis with a D that plays much better at home.
Oregon is the last Pac-12 team to win in Salt Lake City, 30-28 in 2018, behind Justin Herbert, and will win a hard-fought game by holding down the Utes run game.
UW will defeat USC and win the Apple Cup.
In what could be the last Civil War game, the Beavers and Ducks will be playing the day after Thanksgiving in a game kicking off at 8:30 Eastern that will be watched by 6M+ and decide which team from Oregon (Oregon IMO will defeat SC at home) goes to Las Vegas to play UW in the champ game. (The Oregon vs. UW game last Saturday was by far the most watched CFB game in Week 7 including Arkansas at Alabama. How did They screw This up?))
It Never Rains in Autzen Stadium but on 11/24 the weather could have an impact on this game.
No doubt that Oregon State will be coming into the Civil War fired up to end Oregon's Pac-12 champ dreams and playoff hopes.
Come on ESPN/Fox, bring OSU and WSU into the B12 and the Power 4. The B12 4 newbies to date are 1-8 in the B12.
Hmmm....Oregon State at No. 9 in the country and 4 spots ahead of Oregon and in the CFP. I bet that is rocking Duck-world and Uncle Phil. But there is still a long way to go. Still, this by a non-PAC observer with no bias is quite a statement. What does this do to the head honchos at ESPN and FOX and their rigging of the conferences? Hmmmm....heads rolling?
Boy John you had lots to talk about today, but I'll focus on the results. Definitely your worst week for straight up picks, only at 2-4, but there were a lot of Pac12 upsets. Still that made for interesting stats when it comes to where will be next year as all the conferences had disappointing results (except maybe the future ACC/Pac schools since their future conference mate ND (in all other sports) took down the PAC12 school that started all this mess.
The Pac/Big10 had its worst week going only 1-3 as in all of their games a future Big 10 team from the Pac came up short when the previous 21 games the 4 teams only had 1 loss. Still the 1 game that guaranteed a loss (UO/UW) was the best game of the year and cemented not only that rivalry for the Big 10 in the future but the value those 2 schools bring. Also considering the team we can all hate USC, looked pretty pedestrian in that 48-20 drubbing by ND, the Northwest schools sure will help that conference. Yet despite the losses all 4 teams are still ranked in the AP matching the 4 of other Big 10 fourteen teams that are ranked. then add the fact that 1/2 of the top 10 AP ranked teams will be in the Big 10 next year reinforces that the Midwest conference by going National sure made some astute acquisitions. Jim Delaney and Kevin Warren leave a much more favorable legacy than Larry Scott and George K.
On the other hand the Big12 looks pitiful this year even with their 4 PAC12 acquisitions. They desperately need those Pac teams who had a good week going 2-1, but that 1 loss by their media darling school, Colorado (who got this year’s PAC12 defections going), embarrassed themselves giving up a 29-0 halftime lead to ACC bound Stanford. You’d think the Big12 might realize if football matters that #12 OSU and WSU are critical additions. Even with WSU’s loss AP writers gave them 11 votes, 7 more than 15 of those 16 future Big12 got with only #14 Utah ranked who beat the other ACC bound team, Cal.
So here are the PAC records base on future conference allegiance and against all conferences as we enter Week #8:
Big 10/4 Pac teams 21-4, 8-3 in the Pac 12; AP ranks #5, 9, 18, 25
Big 12/4 Pac teams 14-12, 5-9 in the Pac12, AP rank #14
ACC/2 Pac teams 5-8, 2-6 in the Pac12, Neither team ranked
PAC 2 (OSU/WSU) 10-3, 4-3 in the Pac12 & 3-2 against the defecting 10, AP ranks #12, 29
Out of conference PAC 12 record 30 wins and only 6 losses
Week #8 all 4 Pac12 games have a future Big 10 team with 2 against Pac/B12 (Utah at USC & ASU at UW), against Pac/ACC (UCLA at Stanford), and another test against the PAC 2 as WSU come to Autzen. The Ducks had better be ready as WSU has often derailed a good Oregon season, especially when they had the Pirate (R.I.P). USC/Utah is the marquis PAC12 matchup and after last weekend the Trojans need this win badly.
Iowa is ranked for lack of a better reason. (0-31 vs. Penn State.) One thing is for certain, the Pac-4, B1G newbies will be bringing a more exciting brand of football to a 3-team B1G conference.
Yeah, the more I watch these B1G games the more I appreciate watching PAC12 football all these years. The B1G seems to produce a lot of snooze fests.....just not much parity at the current time.
Last I visited University of Washington, the stadium was On the campus. You might say it’s adjacent, because you have to cross Mountlake Boulevard on a pedestrian bridge. 4 miles almost gets you to Lumen field where the Seahawks play.
“Washington’s Husky Stadium is located four miles from UW’s campus, but it’s also one of the best settings in college football.” This is not correct. Husky stadium is adjacent to the campus. The furthest any class room is to Husky stadium is .7 or .8 miles by foot, according to Google maps.
You are right. It's .4 miles.
I was very confused by this as well. I just went to the game last week and walked through campus to get to the stadium. Never did I think I left campus.
I walked it too. .4 miles.
My bad, I didn't see your response before I posted mine. I can't believe I'm defending Husky Stadium as a Ducks fan. Is it bad that I hate them less after attending my first game there? Amazing experience.
That's my job... bring people together.
LMAO!
It’s not bad Joshua. I think (hope!) UW and Ducks fan bases are learning more respect for each other, and it’s made possible by parity on the field. Husky Stadium does stand as the greatest setting in football, of course I’m totally biased. The only thing better is if the day was clear and you could also see Mt. Rainer. Is there another stadium that overlooks a volcano!?
I spent 41/2 years there and knew the campus had not moved. LOL There is not a campus on the West Coast that can showcase a setting like UW. As the Oregon fans can attest here that attended Saturday's game.
The campus DID move from downtown to its current location….. in 1895.
Dave Bartoo is required reading. Anytime I see an interview with him, I'll read it. He's probably the only person who should have a say in who makes the playoff. His "eye test" comment was especially compelling.
The Trojans were humiliated, will they carry that into the game this Saturday? No, Utah wins in their fashion of blunt force trauma.
Hey, how is it going to be for the Trojans when they are in the B1G?! It is not going to get better for them. They aren't going to go into Michigan or Ohio and out-recruit the incumbents. They will be spending a lot more time in the air and on the road which will wear down their athletes. I doubt the west coast viewership will follow USC to the B1G so their eyeballs will go down. This will be the kiss of death for USC and UCLA, both schools in a metro area that is disintegrating. USC has under-perfomed its talent level for decades. The culture there is obviously a disaster. Lincoln Riley is obviously not the answer. If Beavers fans have to fear any school poaching Coach Smith, it is USC in my opinion, not MSU or any other eastern team. Smith comes from SoCal. That is his stomping grounds. We know he likes the Pac NW because he has been in the region from college and throughout his professional career. But every person thinks about going home someday. I love Coach Smith and always have. His ability to create culture and stability would be perfect for USC. But don't tell them!!
I've read several sources claiming coach Riley has lost the locker room and other sources saying Riley wants out of SoCal. I think the performance of both lines is way under performing. I've never understood how a decent coach at USC is not in the playoff hunt yearly. I think they lose twice more this season. It's incredulous to fail in that setting. Wait...did I say a decent coach? Is Riley a fraud? We'll see. Tick, tick tick. (But he does have a mansion with 12 bathrooms)
Riley's an OC masquerading as a head coach.
It's looking that way.
Very insightful Brian. Keep it a secret..
Unfortunately your comments are accurate Commish!!!
We already knew that USC's defense was average at best. Now you compound that issue with the fact that their O-Line isn't as good as last year's was AND USC is hitting the meat of their schedule with teams having better defenses (Notre Dame, Utah, UW, Oregon & UCLA).
Utah's defensive line will terrorize Caleb Williams & their backs/secondary will be ready to pick him off. If Utah has a passable offense (double-entendre intended), they win straight up.
USC can't stop Washington's offense & I don't see them beating a much-more balanced Ducks team in Autzen.
The question is who's coaching & quarterbacking USC next year. I can easily see Riley bailing for a pro job & Caleb would be crazy to trade $2-$3 million in NIL money (which he will make anyway as a high first-round pick) and delay the financial windfall of his next (non-rookie) NFL contract by another year. Depending upon how the balance of how this year pans out for USC, I can foresee nightmare scenarios playing out for them next year.
It's called "plausible deniability" John (but you know that) . Coaches don't talk directly with schools sniffing around, their agent always does it and relays the info. Agents don't answer to anyone except their clients. WSU and Dickert, just like OSU and J. Smith, are between a rock and a hard place once the season ends and none of the scenarios going forward are very pretty even if they end up with a bunch of cash.
Smith and Dickert have been unwittingly cast into a position where each has to choose between being a hero and a villain. But they do have a choice. Both have already earned more coaching football than 99.9% of their profession, and still have a couple decades of earnings ahead of them.
While the zeitgeist seems to demand celebrating those who grab the bag above all else, both of them still get to decide where (and who) they want to be. And it's unlikely anything they accomplish in East Lansing could compare to the opportunity they have if they take on the challenge of piloting OSU/WSU through this next chapter.
I completely agree with this. MSU is never going to be the big dog in the B1G or even in the state of Michigan. Money, as an incentive, has its limits for someone who just loves football. I would much rather be in a position to be hero in the Pac NW and make a big difference to tens or hundreds of thousands of fans around the world than be another widget in the media machine that is B1G. Vince Lombardi made his reputation in little ole Green Bay beating all the much better funded NFL teams all over the USA and this before salary caps. Lombardi is still revered today, 60 years later.
Right. The Harsin family balance sheet is $20MM+ larger for taking the Auburn job, and suffering the indignities that came with it, but is his family happier than if he'd stayed put at Boise? (And, yes, I know things were less perfect than they appeared.)
Special situations like Dickert and Smith are facing come about organically, and if you give one up, you're highly unlikely to get another shot. You're just another coach with a lake house and a beach house and a healthy family limited partnership that you hope doesn't negatively impact the character development of your kids, who will forever struggle to define the location of 'home.'
If paradise for Smith/Dickert is somewhere east of the Rockies, then it seems inevitable they'll make a move eventually, much like Mike Leach did. But there is absolutely nothing that requires us to treat it as a fait accompli, or to view a decision to stay as taking on a lesser challenge.
We know that Coach Smith is still very friendly with Mike Riley. We also know that Mike Riley, Corvallis HS football star when I was in junior high school in Albany (we all heard about him), kept grabbing for the golden ring, maybe because he was exposed to big time football at Alabama and OSU never seemed quite good enough. Who knows. But it never worked out for Riley. Every time he left Oregon State, it blew up on him. Left OSU in 1999 for NFL San Diego Chargers and that did not pan out. Came back to Corvallis in 2003. Left OSU again for Nebraska in 2015. Back to Corvallis again in 2018 uprooting his family each time. I wonder if Riley and Smith have conversations about the downside of job hopping.
It actually did work out for Riley. He's had a great life - personal and professional. He's one of the great coaches in OSU history. Like a lot of other very good coaches, the NFL wasn't a fit - nor was it a fit for Lou Holtz and Nick Saban and others. But he came back to Oregon State and did some wonderful things for the Beavers in difficult circumstances. Nebraska, a storied program, went looking for Riley when they needed help. Oregon State's administration and boosters were putting heat on Riley because OSU wasn't Oregon - he jumped at a school that was absolutely a step above OSU. It didn't pan out for Riley, as he believed it would, but Nebraska was a bigger mess than Oregon State and nobody realized it at the time. Scott Frost, Nebraska's golden boy, found out the same thing.
Riley was a great coach at Oregon State and has had a wonderful career.
Not saying Mike Riley didn't do well, financially or that there is anything wrong with him personally. I like him. But I have always said he wasn't aggressive enough for my tastes, especially on D. He did not have the killer gene that Dennis Erickson does (and that Jonathan Smith also displays). Riley was also a good recruiter and I don't take that away from him. What I am saying is that Riley likely found that the Grass is not always Greener. He could have done just as well staying at OSU and hiring more aggressive coordinators since that is his weakness at all levels (just having the name "Nebraska" behind your program does not solve the issues with your coaching style). Had he done that, Riley would be in line to be the "hero coach" that Smith will eventually become (if not already there). The single element of coaching that I can isolate that separates the good from the great is "aggressiveness" in scheme, in execution, in fundamentals like tackling technique and leverage, and in accountability. Smith, with Bray as his coordinator, checks all those boxes. What are some other coaches who do? You named Saban and Holtz. Both do (I got to see Holtz up close when he was at Minnesota for two years). Erickson did as well, though accountability for players off the field was an issue. Pete Carroll? Succeeds at every level because of aggressiveness and accountability. Tom Osborne at Nebraska? It is what separates him from those who followed. Jim Harbaugh was aggressive but lacked accountability until the past 2-3 years. He has apparently solved that problem and his team record shows the results. Look at any coach in America present or past, and the great ones all had those two factors locked down.
If they stay put, their challenge will be coaching/recruiting in Group of Five obscurity.
You don't know that. It is speculation. If successful, the PACxx will be rebuilt into a P5 conference.
You are unrealistic through your Beaver lens. There is no possibility of a decent P5 that can be rebuilt. Not unless current P5 teams leave their conference to join the new PAC conference. Extremely unlikely anytime soon.
Your opinion. I think there will be another shuffle of the deck. John has said so here repeatedly and I agree. The PAC2 need to hold down the fort until other P5 teams become available. It will happen in the next 2-3 years. The dust is a long way from settling in the FBS world.
I could see another reshuffle of the deck, but in your scenario the other P5 teams that would want to are mid-to-low tier in other conferences who would try to go somewhere "to win." But, the money wouldn't follow, so they likely would stay where they are.
I hope you're right, but I'm doubtful. I think the best we can hope for is a reverse MWC with the Pac-12 name. Whether that's good enough to remain Power 5 or not...doubtful.
OSU and WSU have a two-year “grace period” as a Power 5 conference, beginning next Summer, until Summer 2026.
If COVID and conference realignment have taught us anything, it’s that predicting 2.5 years into the future is folly.
Thirty-two months from now, the ACC may be gone, which would leave Stanford and Cal available. If the ACC manages to survive, the academics at those schools may not tolerate cross-country travel; the UC accountants won’t like the travel costs.
The Big-12 has taken three of the worst athletic programs in the PAC-12. Does anyone want to bet that Coach Diva will stay in Boulder long-term?
What do Texas and Oklahoma know that we don’t know? They’re leaving a conference they dominate for the SEC. It makes for a much harder path to the playoffs in the short-term, but it positions them for the B1G/SEC mega conference long-term.
What does that tell you about the future of the Big-12? Without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big-12 is bunch of small-market schools that are not “national brands.” Sound familiar?
The Dawgs, Ducks and USC will find the path to the CFP much harder when it goes through Ann Arbor, Columbus, Madison and State College as well as Eugene, Seattle and Los Angeles. A couple of 3-5 loss seasons as well as road-trips to Maryland and Rutgers could change a lot.
Who the hell knows what 2026 looks like, besides a complete shitshow.
Does anyone believe that “relegation” won’t happen to Kansas and Kansas State, Iowa and Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland and Mississippi State?
At least the Beavers and Cougars have been through the culling of the conferences that is inevitable as TV creates its 32-team “college football” that disregards everything that makes college football great.
If they play this correctly and strategically, OSU and WSU can be well-positioned in 2-3 years when the the shit REALLY hits the fan.
At this point, I feel like, “Fine, create your 32-team collegiate/corporate XFL league, and the other 90 Division 1 teams can get back to regional and geographical rivalries, and end-of-season bowl games that don’t pretend to crown a “national champion.”
You know, the things that made college football great before the BCS started us down this slope.
Question? Why would either Smith or Dickert stay if they are no longer in a Power 5 conference with a chance of going to the playoffs? It wouldn't make sense, neither are nearing retirement. Loyalty? Come on..... They are not the ones who were involved in screwing up the conference, but they work for parties that are. Dickert is sniffing around for a lifeboat and I bet Smith is too.
Douglas and JC, Diekert? How much $, off the hook as of now for the buyout of Tucker's contract, is Sparty going to offer J. Smith? I know that it is Smith's alma mater but coach in the Power 2 or wherever OSU ends up? Play before millions of viewers or hundreds of thousands of viewers? Have a B1G recruiting budget or a comparatively next-to-nothing budget?
Michigan State is one of 3 B1G teams to make the playoff (thanks to a Ducks loss in E. Lansing and a Ducks win at Stanford) and has played Michigan toe to toe since the 'Little Brother' call out.
Smith is the more experienced HC and a better fit for the B1G, IMO, than Diekert. At MSU he would have a development program with better players.
You have zero idea if Smith is even interested in the B1G. I doubt it. This is just more nasty and vindictive "Duck-talk". We will see
Absolutely, I have no inside information.
But I cannot imagine that J Smith is not on many CFB radar screens including Michigan State.
Vindictive? I have no desire whatsoever for Smith to depart Corvallis.
It depend on OSU’s level of commitment (budget, salaries for he and his staff), and where more money fits in his priorities for his family.
He’s making great money in Corvallis, he has kids in school, and OSU will probably re-work his deal to include all of the above, with a much higher buy-out.
Still, OSU may lose him. I simply expect them to do everything humanly possible to keep him.
Hopefully Smith stays through the Grace Period and surveys the options then.
He’s a GREAT coach (remember the dumpster fire he inherited).
The offers will be there.
bs, johnathon smith is known for what he has done, they were claiming he might be one of the best coaches in the cfb who does alot with little and claimeing how great he has done on prime time gameday a couple weeks back, herbstriet was saying it. he is not an unknown, ducks fan here
Brian, settle down and take a deep breath. Jon's not being vindictive - he doesn't give a rip about Michigan State or have any desire for Smith to leave, he's simply offering a reasonable scenario considering the challenges Dickert and Smith are going to have recruiting and retaining staff, along with Power 5 kind of athletes. There's no "Duck-talk" going on, just an unbiased view staring at some big challenges for the Pac-2.
Tough to say. Smith seems like a pretty loyal dude.....but the $$ is the $$ and if they show it to him all bets are off. I really hope he stays loyal, we see a reverse engineering of the MWC which see their best 6 (Wyoming, AF, BSU, SDSU, FSU and CSU) and bring in Tulane and Memphis. I think Smith sticks around with a scenario like this playing out.
This is the way.
MSU is a steaming dumpster facing the overhang of a multi-year court battle with a former coach who seems determined to drag the program through hell rather than accept even a very large 8-figure settlement.
The mega-booster who underwrote the Tucker contract recently dropped $4BN on an NBA team in Phoenix, and no one seems sure whether he's even still interested in supporting MSU football. At the very least, he's very engaged with the Suns.
Your main NIL collective just dropped a bunch of players in the middle of the season because it didn't meet fundraising targets.
Oh, and the MSU roster will likely resemble 2022 Colorado once the next portal window opens (assuming players don't start making business decisions this weekend in what looks to be an egregious mismatch against UM).
You sure $12MM/yr is enough?
As I understand it, MSU has dozens of deep pocket boosters. They could buy the PAC 12 if they wanted. There are a lot of billionaires in America who will pay big time for their toys.
I don't doubt that they have deep pocketed boosters, but it should (will) concern any prospective coach when said boosters don't step up to prevent the public implosion of a collective.
MSU's debacle hasn't garnered the same national attention as Florida's Jayden Rashada faceplant, but it's quite possibly more damaging to the program.
That's the new reality of the NIL/portal era: programs can no longer trade on their POTENTIAL to spend, but will be judged whether they actually hit confirm on the wire transfer. MSU stakeholders are going to feel this acutely in a way they never have before.
When does the selection committee consider a top25 win? At the time the game was played or at the time the committee meets?
ESPN loves to frontload SEC teams that have no business being in the top 25, and it seems to ensure that Georgia, Bama, etc can have that strength of schedule argument while playing really weak out of conference teams.
Does he discuss the manipulation of the AP top25 wins? Because that seems to be a strong reason we can't have two Pac12 teams in the playoffs.
Great question... at the time of ranking... so ultimately at the end of the season... you want them ranked... NOT when you played them.
Bartoo will be on radio today at 4 p.m.... and yes, he had lots to say about how the SEC "games" the system.
Yeah, SC and Oregon get credit for beating a "ranked" team when they defeated Colorado, who will be nothing more than a "rank" team by the end of the season.
Kansas started out 5-0 in 2022 and some teams got "ranked team" credit for beating them. KU lost 6 of its last 7 games and finished 6-7. They were not a quality team and no one should have gotten "ranked team" credit for beating them.
How far is Autzen Stadium from campus?
Autzen is 1 mile away.
Oregon will not get credit for beating a ranked team if Colorado isn't ranked at end.
The column explains the mystery behind the Playoff ranking a bit. Apparently it is whom you beat, rather than whom you lost to?
OSU has beaten two currently ranked teams, but lost to a now unranked WSU.
OR has not beaten any program currently ranked, but lost to No. 5 UW by 3-pts.
The "good" loss doesn't hold as much water in comparison.
Thus, SEC teams which seem to hold onto their rankings at season's end benefit the teams that beat them. The SEC "bias" keeps more teams ranked so wins over SEC middle tier programs, benefits the SEC leaders at the end.
ntm, if you go back and look at the games prior to pac12 rival week and see how many 1 loss or undefeated teams have lost that game in the last 20 yrs yu will see at leas 5 National championships and playoffs that were not seen by just oregon and standford and wash, and at least five ny6 bowl games just from that extra game before rivals where bama plays liberty and pac teams are playing ranked oponents in 12 years oregon lost like 5 of those games 2 would have sent them to 2 mor NC games and 3 would have put them in a ny6 bowl same with stanford and oregon lost like 3 of those 5 games lost by 3, i think 2019 asu/ore, last year vs ore wash, 2013 oregon, etc . just think what 4-5 nattys and 5 more fiesta and rose bowls would have made pac12 look like had they played 8 conf games
Kansas is a good example, but not in the way you state. They were not improperly ranked when they were 5-0. However Jaylon Daniels was the whole reason they were doing great, and they once he was injured, the team fell drastically in ability, and no longer deserved ranked status.
So if John is correct, if it is at the time the committee meets, then they are losing information that hurts those five teams defeated by Kansas.
Husky Stadium IS 4 miles from where I parked.
LOLOL
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors play on a stadium on campus. The moved out of Aloha Stadium because it was unsafe, was supposed to be demolished and rebuilt. None of it has happened yet. So they will be playing on campus for many years. Unlike in Aloha Stadium, they seem to actually fill up the stadium for a better atmosphere.
the CFP selection parameters - ambiguous at best, misguided and arrogant at worst
Regarding Dickert; “He who speaks first, loses” - Cougs need the “any given day” upset of the season this weekend
It all comes down to Washington staying healthy and taking motivation to the next level. Feeling confident, not cocky
Love all that is PSU!
GO DAWGS
The mighty Ducks will win and keep this up. Bo's message after the game was a tremendous insight of a mature, compassionate young man.
is it me or doesit feel like football is setting up this redemption heartfelt story where he couldn't beat UGA, couldn't win a title at auburn, then goes to oregon and still cant win at UGAor the rival games and its all set up for a conf championship win vs wash to get redemtion and go to the playoff with a chance to win a title like his dad but with a different school on hte west and possibly play UGA for that shot. You could not write a better story, his dad in ducks gear in tears at the UGA game cause he saw dan encuaraging him meeting him on the feild every bad series and then maybe a possibility to set his wrongs write by playing UGA for a title the first one at Oregon. Sounds like a 30 for 30
Bartoo interview was great...👊
Gee, I’ve been waiting for “SCfortheWin” comment. I wonder where he went?
Evicted from Fanville?
Oregon State will win a tough game at Arizona and will defeat UW in Corvallis with a D that plays much better at home.
Oregon is the last Pac-12 team to win in Salt Lake City, 30-28 in 2018, behind Justin Herbert, and will win a hard-fought game by holding down the Utes run game.
UW will defeat USC and win the Apple Cup.
In what could be the last Civil War game, the Beavers and Ducks will be playing the day after Thanksgiving in a game kicking off at 8:30 Eastern that will be watched by 6M+ and decide which team from Oregon (Oregon IMO will defeat SC at home) goes to Las Vegas to play UW in the champ game. (The Oregon vs. UW game last Saturday was by far the most watched CFB game in Week 7 including Arkansas at Alabama. How did They screw This up?))
It Never Rains in Autzen Stadium but on 11/24 the weather could have an impact on this game.
No doubt that Oregon State will be coming into the Civil War fired up to end Oregon's Pac-12 champ dreams and playoff hopes.
Come on ESPN/Fox, bring OSU and WSU into the B12 and the Power 4. The B12 4 newbies to date are 1-8 in the B12.
I hope you are right, ala Oregon State upsets uw, 1985. Huuuuuge win for the Beavs
This is how I think it will play out as well
Hmmm....Oregon State at No. 9 in the country and 4 spots ahead of Oregon and in the CFP. I bet that is rocking Duck-world and Uncle Phil. But there is still a long way to go. Still, this by a non-PAC observer with no bias is quite a statement. What does this do to the head honchos at ESPN and FOX and their rigging of the conferences? Hmmmm....heads rolling?
Boy John you had lots to talk about today, but I'll focus on the results. Definitely your worst week for straight up picks, only at 2-4, but there were a lot of Pac12 upsets. Still that made for interesting stats when it comes to where will be next year as all the conferences had disappointing results (except maybe the future ACC/Pac schools since their future conference mate ND (in all other sports) took down the PAC12 school that started all this mess.
The Pac/Big10 had its worst week going only 1-3 as in all of their games a future Big 10 team from the Pac came up short when the previous 21 games the 4 teams only had 1 loss. Still the 1 game that guaranteed a loss (UO/UW) was the best game of the year and cemented not only that rivalry for the Big 10 in the future but the value those 2 schools bring. Also considering the team we can all hate USC, looked pretty pedestrian in that 48-20 drubbing by ND, the Northwest schools sure will help that conference. Yet despite the losses all 4 teams are still ranked in the AP matching the 4 of other Big 10 fourteen teams that are ranked. then add the fact that 1/2 of the top 10 AP ranked teams will be in the Big 10 next year reinforces that the Midwest conference by going National sure made some astute acquisitions. Jim Delaney and Kevin Warren leave a much more favorable legacy than Larry Scott and George K.
On the other hand the Big12 looks pitiful this year even with their 4 PAC12 acquisitions. They desperately need those Pac teams who had a good week going 2-1, but that 1 loss by their media darling school, Colorado (who got this year’s PAC12 defections going), embarrassed themselves giving up a 29-0 halftime lead to ACC bound Stanford. You’d think the Big12 might realize if football matters that #12 OSU and WSU are critical additions. Even with WSU’s loss AP writers gave them 11 votes, 7 more than 15 of those 16 future Big12 got with only #14 Utah ranked who beat the other ACC bound team, Cal.
So here are the PAC records base on future conference allegiance and against all conferences as we enter Week #8:
Big 10/4 Pac teams 21-4, 8-3 in the Pac 12; AP ranks #5, 9, 18, 25
Big 12/4 Pac teams 14-12, 5-9 in the Pac12, AP rank #14
ACC/2 Pac teams 5-8, 2-6 in the Pac12, Neither team ranked
PAC 2 (OSU/WSU) 10-3, 4-3 in the Pac12 & 3-2 against the defecting 10, AP ranks #12, 29
Out of conference PAC 12 record 30 wins and only 6 losses
Week #8 all 4 Pac12 games have a future Big 10 team with 2 against Pac/B12 (Utah at USC & ASU at UW), against Pac/ACC (UCLA at Stanford), and another test against the PAC 2 as WSU come to Autzen. The Ducks had better be ready as WSU has often derailed a good Oregon season, especially when they had the Pirate (R.I.P). USC/Utah is the marquis PAC12 matchup and after last weekend the Trojans need this win badly.
Ed Schwallie, Corvallis
Iowa is ranked for lack of a better reason. (0-31 vs. Penn State.) One thing is for certain, the Pac-4, B1G newbies will be bringing a more exciting brand of football to a 3-team B1G conference.
Yeah, the more I watch these B1G games the more I appreciate watching PAC12 football all these years. The B1G seems to produce a lot of snooze fests.....just not much parity at the current time.
Last I visited University of Washington, the stadium was On the campus. You might say it’s adjacent, because you have to cross Mountlake Boulevard on a pedestrian bridge. 4 miles almost gets you to Lumen field where the Seahawks play.
I edited that error. Should have been .4 miles... I removed it.
It's 4 miles from the ground to the top of the erector set where the Oregon band was sitting.
Love the NO BS analytics!
GO UTES!