229 Comments
Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Excellent move Pac4; we now have an adult aboard. Stay tuned.

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Hope so. Its great he had a daighter that played Vball at Stanford as well as Andrew w/football. Can Luck help the PAC gain value beyond football and help save the college athletics with the other sports.?

Another adult, ND's retired 2x NC coach Muffet McGraw, tweeted last Sunday "Time to stop whining about where college football is headed and figure out how to save the rest of college sports. Let football break with the NCAA and form their own league and let college basketball and the Olympic sports continue the conference model. There has to be another way to preserve all that is good in college athletics and give our student athletes the experience they deserve" Chip Kelly reinforced a similar idea in an article in the LA Times on Tuesday.

Maybe Luck can get the MWC & PAC to work together to get the best of both worlds. For football have the MWC "disband" (need a vote of 9 of the 12 schools, means no $34M) payout and join the PAC in football only to get the autonomous rights for the CFP for the payoffs. Then have the MWC conference reform for their 12 schools for all other sports they currently play including basketball. The PAC invites back the 4 Big 10 schools in all other sports but football and continue the "Conference of Champions" and its 108 year history when sports was about the athlete and fair competition and not money. Force the Big 10 presidents to vote on this to consider what is the best option for non football college athletes. Fox/CBS/Peacock would have to acknowledge the Big10 conference contracts are about football money. Then finish the Apple deal with both the newly formed MWC and the PAC with the 14 football teams and the 8 California, Oregon, and Washington PAC schools in all other sports. Football schools would get the most money but even the non football schools might get a good return. You'd have fans/alumni from 20 West Coast schools signing up for Apple. Hell maybe the PAC could still get SMU for the entire shebang (since they want Bigtime football & have lots of bucks) and add Gonzaga for just the non-football sports in the PAC.

I'd love to see if Oliver, George K and Gloria Nevarez have the chops to lead an effort to create sanity again for college athletics overall by working together. It would be a wonderful outcome to a sorry tale so far and be a better future for all. I guarantee all the student athletes would be better off and there might be more money in it beyond football.

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Edward, you present a very thoughtful and practical solution to the whole situation. I agree with moving on, and stop burning energy looking back and moaning about how we got here. It is time to move on and fix it. I would support those in the decision making positions adopting your plan and moving forward. Certainly is well ahead of where the game is now. Very well played, Charlie

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Amen! I was thinking that the other day. “Reform the Pac-8 as a non-football conference!” I would imagine Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA (and all the Big 10 teams) would be open to that. Even if it just pays out a couple million to each Pac-8 school it’s got to save the new Big 10 tens of millions! If it’s just about the money. That option has got to be explored. So much money will be saved if they resurrect the Pac-8.

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Doesn'rt matter who is on board if schools like WA and OR intentionally sabatoge the effort. Asking for $50M and turning off your suitors is absolute bullshit. Maybe you counter with something buty $50M was absolute bullshit.

Maybe this was OR and WA's intent the whole time, and to give them cover for leaving....

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Well Oliver Luck somehow got West Virginia in the Big-12 when the Big East collapsed. Always thought that was incredible as it’s a small state, not a ratings driver and geographically didn’t fit. Albeit a passionate fanbase. I would suggest if Oliver Luck was the commissioner there would be a PAC-12. Once again choices matter.

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

I’m delighted the PAC 4 is doing this and it feels like too little too late. That said, I prefer it to crying about what happened and blaming everyone but the CEO group and George for not taking a $30M deal. And like Mike says, had they countered with $35, $38, who knows where they might have landed. I negotiated for a living for the last 5 or so years of my career and this was such a botched up mess at least from the information that has been shared in public.

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Too late? Like not hiring Luck instead of GK to begin with?

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If WA and OR intentionally sabotage the effort, what's the point?

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I shared your career experience, Noury. Negotiation is a skill that is learned and then honed by constant use, with rules and consequences just like sport. We remember "same side of the table". Good memories and thoughts. Well played, thanks, Charlie

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The phrase "Put us in coach" comes to mind :-). Glad to meet a kindred spirit.

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Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

To all the naysayers who say it's too late. Nope. This is a huge development that favors the survival/rebuild of the Pac12. Key question: Does this mean Stanford is on board? Forgotten Four now have a puncher's chance.

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I hope THIS happens but will the Pac-Whatever be a Power 5 conference?

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yea they will its convoluted as long as cal and stanfornd and washington state and oregon state remain and they can get to 8 members they will remain a p5 if not hmmm who knows

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Stanford needs to sign an ironclad deal that keeps them solidly in the box for 2 TV cycles. If not, we need to re-think this.

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I hope your right but I just can’t see Stanford coming along for this ride. Football might drive the boat but at Stanford has won 26 out of the last 29 Directors cups and those sports have powerful alumni and $$$. Add in the academics and I simply don’t see them doing it.

We shall see

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If they go independent they are going to have to scramble hard for full 2024 and 2025 football schedules.

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Correct, they'd be able to schedule ND, UConn, and UMass. Not very appealing.

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Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023

Agree and I’m not sure how they get it done. Not enough time to get 12 games. That could be the deciding factor

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Obviously GK walked into a very tough situation that was created by Scott but, my goodness, why were there no media experts anywhere near this negotiating process from the beginning?

Where on earth did the $50 million number come from...just an assumption? It certainly didn't come from any realistic market evaluation. If there had been an expert involved they could have provided some realistic expectations of market rates without the LA schools, and could have provided more urgency to either accept something between $30-$35 million and/or expand earlier to help increase their valuation. What a total shit show from top to bottom led by someone whom wasn't realistic or honest during the process.

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honestly if they came in at 38 and settled for 35 we would still have a pac 12 no question hell if they settled for 32 with a guarenteed that 2 more members that get added get a full share shit big twelve would be damn near useless

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Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Decades ago I was told by a boss that if I didn't have enough time to do the job right then how would I find time to do it over. The wisdom never left me. If the PAC 4 wants to stay a conference and add new teams, then the first order of business has to be to fire the commissioner. Nobody on the outside would want to belong to a conference with him as head. Luck and Johnson sound like the kind of leaders the incompetent school leaders should have hired in the first place. If they couldn't get a hire such as the commissioner right this time after the Larry Scott debacle then how will they get the next hire right? There needs to be different people doing the voting on hiring the next conference head.

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Wise advice from a wise boss.

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That is my favorite Wooden quote

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i was taught if you are lazy to do it right the first time and you could sit back an bullshit till the next job but i was an ase cert master tech by 24 and being paid flat rate lmao so yea early yrs tough later yrs made great money and only worked half of book time hahhaha

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There may be a comment on down the string, but was Oliver not hired in the first place because he was honest and clear about what had to be done, that he would do it, and would not be subject to any form of micro-management? Just asking', Charlie

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

WOW, too think that Mr Luck was passed over as the commissioner is unbelievable.

With his experience with the NCAA and knowledge of the PAC-12 he would have got things done, you could have counted on it.

We can only hope that he can bring the 4 teams together and just maybe start a new conference and keep the PAC-12 brand together or at least get Stanford and Cal to come down off of their high horse and be important players with OSU AND WSU.

Sorry he was not our commissioner!!!

Today could be either SAD or HAPPY !!!

Joe M

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Let's stop playing coulda-shoulda-woulda...it does us no good...what is done is done, all energy should be positive and forward thinking...we can rebuild it, corporations do it all the time. I for one think this may be our finest hour as we can rebuild it stronger than ever without the inside BS of the past holding us back. The key is to get aggressive, understand the market place and be strategic about the options and the fit, and most importantly putting the athletes experience as primary!

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I am all for for the power of positive thinking but you are setting yourself up for failure and major disappointment if you fail to infuse that positivity with a healthy dose of realism. The cold hard facts is that the new PAC-X will never be as strong or "stronger" that the old conference. Its biggest brands, strongest football teams and largest fan bases which creates the bulk of the conference's media value all left. There are not any school's that the PAC-X can add that can replicate or exceed what has left. Therefore, there will never be scenario where the new PAC-X will negotiate a new media rights deal that pays anywhere near what they are currently receiving. This will impact all their athletic departments, coaches salaries, facility improvements, recruiting expenditures, etc., and even cause cuts to some non-revenue sports.

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See my previous comment, Oliver may have been uncomfortably competent and clear about staying out of his way. Oh, and perhaps some honest reality thrown in?

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

They should've hired Luck as commissioner from the beginning and we wouldn't be here.

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If the Pac had been more reasonable with ESPN, maybe they could have negotiated up closer to $35M per school. So many inflection points in this mess, but that was clearly a big one.

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How about accepting ESPN's offer to own and operate the network that was declined in 2018 so Larry could collect his network CEO salary?

There are suckers and then there are the people who Larry reported. to.

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People acting in their own best interest the entire time.

Wasn't WAs President most recently on the Pac 12 TV committee? And look, she's in the Big 10.

USC tubed merger offers before it excited...never disclosed why...

USC led the band on declining the sale of P12N to ESPN....never disclosed why...

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Why? $$$$$$$$$.

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Because Folt was had started the Big 10 ploy

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Now that is some great reporting. Thompson is a great source. Now you need to find someone who is knows the moves of the Presidents. Thanks for this piece.

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This is good news. But you have to ask WTF hiring Kliavkoff over Oliver Luck? And if either Luck or Thompson we’re on board does anyone think Pac 4 would be in better shape?

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to be honest...think about it...they (all 12 School presidents & Chancellors) hired grifter & elitist Larry Scott for cripes sake...a tennis guy. Then they did absolutely nothing when all Scott did was spend precious money resources that should have gone to the schools. They again went with style ( & elitism) over substance in hiring Kliavkoff over Luck.

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Tennis guy that grew the sport. He was a good catch at the time, looking at the outside. He increased tennis sponsorships and revenue exponentially. He did negotiate the largest contract in college sports at the time....he was eclipsed...the problem with the deal was the 12 year thing....locked them in far too long

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he was a grifter...a guy who went through money like water, lied about the media pay out deal...lied about the Pac 12 channel studio's, Lied about Direct TV and Dish TV, & kept all the particulars about contracts inside his own little circle...Good catch???? Hardly.

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I said at the time he was a solid choice with the credentials he had.

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if you are in a room full of conmen wondering who the mark is ... bet your ass you are the mark and thats how scott played it

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I think Scott got in over his head, and the issue was this 12 year contract. It was too long....if they had half of that they would have moved on

And why not have staggered TV deals, ESPN's share runs x years, Fox runs x-1 years, Pac 12 Network deals run x+1 years, that way it keeps the conference intact....

But the real issue is USC kept saying one thing publicly, but did something else underneath it all. No one ever called them on it

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My son was involved in media business with women's tennis. When Scott was hired (whom he knew pretty well) he said to me; "maybe for a gofer, but commissioner is beyond belief".

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Yeah. None of this matters because the school Presidents didn't pay attention, didn't listen to the ADs

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The problem was no DirecTV access. Funny thing: I watched the P12N and it’s 7 channels for the first time last month. In a New York City hotel room. As a lifelong UCLA fan, think about that!

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Same here. I was in NYC 8/5-8/8/23. Could not believe all the PAC 12 channels were available but good luck getting them on the west coast

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I mean that is Larry Scott’s tenure in a nutshell: Pac 12 is overexposed where nobody watches them!

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i had to stream it from twitch or where ever cause i couldnt get it not even the pac 12 network wasnt available

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I dropped satellite for this reason

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I believe they will be...more to be revealed.

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What I want to know are which schools were most passionate about GK over Luck and whch more passionate about sending ESPN the $50 million number...

My guess?

Schools that already jumped ship...

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i know for a fact utah was hard for luck he had ties with coach whitt

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Wouldn't surprise me... I have a feeling UO and UW wanted failure in order to jump to Big10

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Yep, provided them cover

I sincerely hope both get absolutely crushed in the Big 10 to the poimt where they ask themselves, what did we bring along.

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

In Oliver Luck we should trust. If it can be done, I believe he can do it.

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Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Isn't it GK's job to keep the Pac together now? Where is he?

Obviously the conference has lost faith in him and let's remember that it's

the same presidents that hired the last commissioners. Let's hope they have

better luck with Luck.

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Word on the street is that there is a restraining order and GK is no longer allowed within a 100 mile radius of P4 headquarters.

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Except I believe that Pac HQ today is located in GK.s Las Vegas residence.

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If only that were true.

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On the Las Vegas Strip with a sin that reads: Hungry, Please Help?

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

So does the PAC( what ever we call it now) Have cash on hand? Did the schools leaving pay exit fees?

Was the $50 million over payment paid back? I keep hearing that somebody will buy down San Diego states fees to join, so somebody somewhere must have a LOT of cash. I think PAC-WEST ( merge) would be a great option, I mean really, competitively this seems logical , But I would think lawyers fees would take up $100 million or so. Luck is a great move, lets hope for something positive SOON. Don't Stop Believin' :)

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I have not heard anything about exit fees for the 5 recently departed schools. Anyone else?

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There are no exit fees because the media rights/GoR expired this year.

The forgotten four may be looking at ways to withhold distributions from the defectors and/or sue them + Fox in court. Word on the street is that’s happening

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Sue Fox? I don't see a suit coming and if filed I do not believe the complaint would be sustained.

With ESPN, CBS, NBC, and Amazon making a bid for Pac-10 broadcast rights it is apparent that Fox does have competition.

Maybe sue for violating CA Fair Dealing Statutes but USC and UCLA would also have to be defendants.

Not the college president's style to litigate. The school you sue today may be your employer tomorrow.

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Don't sue anyone - only the lawyers win.

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lmao true trumps lawyers are getting rich and he is still going to prison hahahhahaa

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except fox did talk to whoregon and the fuskies and told them to not sign 12 hrs later the b1g came callin increasin foxes football footprint on the west coast at half the pay they gave ucla and usc ... gee imagin that

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I believe (unless I misunderstood John before) that no exit fees are due because they are leaving at the end of the current media deal in place.

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There is none. Contract expires 8-1-24. The four going to the B1G were announced as effective 8-2-24. Likewise, those going to the Big12.

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That is my understanding. Although from a general business point of view, why wouldn’t a conference have a standing exit fee policy that’s always in effect?

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Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Great reporting as usual. Let's say they can cobble together an eight team Pac, SDSU. SMU, Tulane one other school,how much t would that be worth in a media deal John? Any idea? Just an estimate if OSU,Wazzu and Cal Stanford ar worth 20 that would come to be 17.5 pers school. Most likely the Pac four would get like $20 Million the newcomers $14-15 million. They could add Hawaii as a affiliate member football only for say 5 million.(also it would give them an extra game every other year)

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Gotta get SMU, Rice and UTSA...gives us huge Texas footprint with Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston and San Antonio. 20 million is survivable in the interim, Apple + gives us ability to build that up and do it quickly with zero competition as the market has yet to embrace streaming, even though everyone knows that is where its headed...first to market, limited competition and its APPLE...I see win-win on the horizon. Cal, Stanford, WSU, OSU need to stick together and build strategically without the elitism that held the conference back for so many years...that is my big worry, with Stanford leading the way, can they get over their elitism and hubris and create a better PAC?

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SMU, RICE, UTSA. SDSU + the Pac-4. Interesting and doesn't completely eviscerate other conferences.

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ohh yea you know the president of stanford had to resign right i think the hubris and elitism should be well gone

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also this would bring the espn factor back into the fold so say a 10 million apple with incentives and just s 15 from espn you could be talking north of 28 million and pac 12 remains a power 5 so auto bid to cfb and thats what like 10 mill hmm

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Well played logic, Ben. But I love the elitism too.

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Wilner's piece today suggests $20 million per school in a re-formed Pac would be possible. Bad but not Group of 5 bad.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/08/11/pac-12-rebuild-estimating-the-media-valuation-of-a-reconstructed-conference/

I still think Cal and Stanford's preferred choice would be football in the ACC and all other sports in the Mountain West.

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Why would the Mountain West take Stanford and Cal without football, the only programs they have that create any monetary value?

Stanford and Cal are too uppity academically to be associated with the MWC and the CSU schools like San Jose, Fresno and San Diego.

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Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023

Don't lump us in that group. Go Aztecs. ;-)

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I think you need to get your mind out of the "TV money" headspace for a moment. They'd take Cal and Stanford for olympic sports because it would be an instant prestige upgrade for the entire league. Believe it or not, some collegiate athletics are not completely broken and distorted by TV money.

You're not wrong about the MWC (but "uppity" is not quite the right word), which is why the WCC is also a possibility if football's not in the mix.

I still don't believe Cal and Stanford will subject their olympic sports students to east coast travel. That would be unforgivable.

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actually if anything the mwc would move to the pac as it still has automatic qualifier and p5 status they would be fools to do otherwise

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No... it would not be instant prestige upgrade...First of all no one watches the non revenue sports. Secondly do you actually think anyone outside of the PAC 12 footprint gives a damn about "The Pac 12, the conference of champions" moniker??? They don't. And that's where all those championships came from...rowing, swimming, diving, Track & field, golf, gymnastics etc etc... It sounds great...but Football and to a lesser extent basketball pay the bills and garners the attention.

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Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023

Pretty obvious from the actions of the Big Ten and Big 12, and the Despicable 8 from the Pac-12, that TV money is all that matters.

If the ACC invites them, they will jump. Guaranteed. The athletes, like labor in general, are expendable, change completely every 3-4 years, and are the least of their concerns.

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the despicable 8 had no choice clown klavikoff left them with smoke up the ass for a yr and didnt even really push to make a deal then he went groveling to apple schools like utah had no choice they were best in the league but dont have a large enough tv market klavikof and scott destroyed the pac 12 period

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I thought it has been reported that the ACC turned down the Stanford/Cal option?

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So far. Had they been invited, they'd be gone in a New York Minute.

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Stanford for certain would go independent before joining the MW.

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and end up like an ivy league program yea nope

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My conclusion exactly, and to my embarrassment, an attitude I share and totally agree with.

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Stanford does not want any part of the mountain west

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better that than indy

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which is why they are where they are...on the outside looking in.

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Why do they have to be so elitist. That may be one reason the Pac 12 had a problem keeping certain schools in the conference at the start of this crap.

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Does that include the Apple product because I see the being raised within 3-5 years alone if not more with just the Apple product.

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Not sure where you are getting the $20MM figure. It is not in Jon's article. He estimated total value of a 10 member league to be $110MM (annually) and a 16 member league to be $135MM. Even if you assume the existing PAC12 schools get a higher % -- it would be tough to get to $20MM each for CAL/Stanford/OSU/WSU in those scenarios.

Keeping A5/P5 status may be more important than a difference of $5MM in media rights.

The CFP money will explode under the new contract in a few years.

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20 Million for the Pac 4 about 10 million for the G5 teams added, For SDSU with its $34 million exit fee. the extra five million would take seven years over a six year contract to break even, Thats a no go.

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G5 plus? I don't see this or a similar alignment as a 'Power' Conference.

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It is pretty obvious to me the top 64 schools are determined to form a monopoly and have no concerns at all for those not in it. I believe however we are headed for a major recession and or depression and theses media giants will be near bankrupt in five years

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how do you see a recession ??? recessions only happen under republicans thats fact so unless trunt gets voted in i dont see it happening

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33 trillion in debt,full on attack on oil and gas. I do not believe in Republican versus Democrat nonsense. It is a Corporate Plutocracy. Bothe semi parties are responsible. The dollar losing value by the moment our credit rating just got dropped again. all the new green deal technology gets It's minerals from China not looking good. My grandfather was a station master in Washington DC for many years he used to tell me if you can believe in politics you can believe in professional wrestling, they're all owned by the same people.

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Need to Jon to go independent like yourself...couldn't read the article, can't afford to purchase subscriptions for every news outlet:(

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correction, need to get Jon to go independent...sorry.

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I am also independent media like JC but you do have to pay all of us for content regardless :-)

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agreed i pay john every month for the last year why ??? cause i enjoy his writing and his reporting so i pay for it always

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Can't imagine an independent Wilner would charge you much less than the Merc

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send me your email in a pm ill gift ya a one month sub

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Aug 11, 2023Liked by John Canzano

Umm hopefully the pac 4 fared better than Andrew Luck with the XFL…

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What does Andrew Luck have to do with the XFL?

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At one time he was the XFL CEO.

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Oliver was, not Andrew.

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