It galls me to admit - assuming I am right - the conference will benefit financially if SC makes the playoff. So yeah, I'm rooting for them to beat Utah, holding my nose the whole way. And the more I think about it the happier I am they Trojans are leaving the PAC. They are rapidly becoming a de-facto pro team and with all that LA offers I cannot see it stopping. We know the NCAA has no teeth anymore.
Because SC is in a megalopolis, the entertainment capital of the world with unlimited NIL options. And no rules around player compensation, in effect. Yes, Oregon has resources too, but Eugene remains a college town.
I’m ok with PAC-12 taking the hit and having Utah win. 1. Utah to the Rose Bowl and not the Huskies. 2. USC not only loses out potential playoff, but also no Rose Bowl. This would be the Trojans last opportunity to be the PAC-12 representative because next year the Rosie is part of the playoff. And, yes, I fully own my Duck influenced pettiness.
All that will be left are 2 perhaps 3 power five conferences thanks to play for pay and free agency when high school kids are gettin NIL money like they are in Oregon and major colleges are giving blue chip players Millions. it’s going to be the end of schools like Oregon Iowa State Utah Stanford California and the rest….
Isn't this really about being competitive? Could Cal, my alma Mater, ever pay a coach $10M? And what does this say about the idea that football has anything more to do with a school's educational objectives or ability to compete academically than the absurdity of what college football has become? My fiancée was watching the Oregon-OSU game and gagging over both uniform's colors. When I told her that the Quacks get a new uniform for every game, meaning at least 1000 uniforms a year she wondered why a school would pay that money to football and not towards academics. I think $10M for a coach, NIL money, the transfer portal, TV rights competitions, USC and UCLA moving to play in the Midwest and East really gets down to the question whether academic schools need to play this game any more?
I had Cal season tickets so I am no naysayer about football, but I just wrote Chancellor Christ wondering if it isn't time stop chasing football and spending the money getting more Nobel Prizes like we have with Jennifer Doudna's in chemistry. $10M goes a long way to attracting academic talent and my degree is more valuable from the Nobel Prizes than any football NC's.
Div 1 FBS football has become the AAA farm system for the NFL. The transition is now complete. With college football players getting paid from bus money to multi-million $$ signing bonus money comparable to what the MLB teams pay out to 1st round draftees, college football is now formally divorced from academics. It is on-campus paid entertainment, and that is all. Players go where they get paid and treated the best with little consideration about academics in most cases (still the occasional engineer or pre-med among the players). I am not sure why Div 1 baseball doesn't also go the NIL route. Then a team like OSU could keep a top player through the senior year. The MLB teams can pay an NIL fee to the player that equals the signing bonus and the player can continue in college and not lose eligibility by signing the contract. Why hasn't that already happened?
Doesn't this risk the interest of fans (at least some of us) at some point?
We are just getting started and I'm honestly already disheartened with the change from watching players come in as young pups and maturing, growing and developing over a few years.
NFL Lite with school logos attached for some reason ... just seems like it'll be really odd at some point.
I doubt the powers-that-be and the Supreme Court care about your or my interest. That is the hard truth. The Supreme Court determined the players could not be exploited by their schools. I agree. The NIL program is the answer. And all the media outlets now compete for content and have a lot of money to throw at it. So as long as we have free markets and media companies can bid whatever they want to gain access to that content, the money will be there to bid up coaches pay and indirectly, NIL payouts.
A CFB players union is on the way and salary caps and restrictions on transfers will be negotiated by the comparatively few schools still playing big time CFB.
I think most schools will abhor paying FUCA, FICA, state retirement contributions, etc. along not being able to drop a starter to 2nd string without an administrative hearing?
If pay for play becomes the norm as it likely will, football and all indicia of the football program will be licensed to a 3rd party.
NIL is in the form of a trust fund. Players are not salaried employees. But maybe you meant that in jest. The primary point is big money will cause havoc with college football and already has
I would say college football already has suffered from the very uneven "playing field" created by conferences and their agenda to win Championships at any cost (Oregon and USC being two very good examples of this). Those with the biggest markets and the most avaricious ADs and boosters will win this game of money and influence until there is nothing left of competitiveness and so no real season, just a playoff of 3 or 4 games between the Top 20. This is what happened in the NFL and MLB as well, until salary caps and revenue sharing was put into place to restore competition. It also what has happened in Indy car, NASCAR and Formula 1 racing where cars and their setups are heavily regulated both for safety and competition. Div 1 football needs to get there at some point, but first the sport needs to be destroyed by excessive ambition. The big programs will need to agree to throttle their excesses.
I think the main point I am trying to make is that we are not, nor never have been, competitive. Plus, the transfer portal, NIL, coaches getting $10M, empty stadiums, cruddy start times, no TV exposure and the loss of USC and UCLA will only worsen the situation. So, what is the point of it then since the Rose Bowl with a 12 team field will just become a playoff site, so winning the Pac-10 will send a team to...drum roll please...maybe Las Vegas to play Fresno State or Boise State. OH BOY!
I'm sorry but for 35-40 years of sitting in UU I saw about 3 seasons when we actually had a good team and still never played in the Rose Bowl...I might remind you that the last win we had in a Rose Bowl was 1938 and the last time we appeared was 1959.
As far as academics that is another discussion and we do not need any more international or out of state students...we need to be faithful to the State Higher Education Master Plan passed by Pat Brown and concentrate on California kids. I started at UCSB before transferring and my fees were $50 a quarter...now kids go into debt to the tune of $100K to get an education and that is sadder than NO Rose Bowl before I die :)
Riley’s Salary of $ 10 mil about equals Jonathan’s salary of & 3.75 mil, based on the actual cost of living differences between LA and Corvallis . Having lived in The Bay Area recently for 6 years , I can tell you for a FACT that a Corvallis Dollar buys about 30 cents . Living with our standard of living here in Oregon
Requires 3 times the same salary to live in LA, like we do here in Oregon. We moved back to the Oregon Ocean because of that ! This is no exaggeration , I can assure you !
Interesting. it would be fun to see salaries based on win totals. Can you imagine a world where coaches salaries are almost entirely based on incentive?
I love the analysis and what seems to be missing to me is the revenue side of the equation. Increased/decreased revenue from tickets sales, sponsors, bowl games etc… as a result of a coaching change (wins) would certainly effect the cost/win math. That said, I sure hope OSU does what it takes to retain Smith, and also gives him the budget to retain his assistants. Like most fans, I love to watch the team I pull for win and how efficiently they get there is an important factor in affordability and sustainability of the program.
Smith isn't going anywhere for at least a few years, he wants to raise his kids in Corvallis and basically has the keys to the kingdom. Its the other coaches that worry me. I agree, hopefully we can keep them around a while longer.
I once attended a game at Autzen when the Ducks played San Jose State. The Duck quarterbacks name was Singleton. The final score was San Jose State 5, Oregon 3. And I thought they couldn’t do any worse. Saturday proved me wrong. Just sayin.
If you don't earn it you don't make it for long, except, of course, at Cal. David Shaw quit at Stanford because he realized he couldn't produce a winning team with the restrictions he was under and he was probably going to end up getting fired.
So what did Miami pay not-so-super Mario for their 5 wins? Also, I see Willie T. got fired...again. Poor guy is still collecting $300K per month from FSU for not working there anymore.
A couple of things:1) $5 million for food in a year outside travel and 1,000 uniforms in a year suggests they have more money than they know what to do with.
2) The year after Clemson won its first title I read that Clemson's alumni donations increased 50%.
3) UCLA's increase in money from joining the BIG is less than 1/2 of 1 percent of the university budget. I'm an alum and know no one who is happy about the move. The drop in alumni donations is going to dwarf the new money they will get.
I once saw where, after the student-athlete learning center (the glass box one) was turned over to Oregon it was up the University to staff it, as well as maintain the grounds, etc. etc. I have heard as high as $10 mil to $20 mil is spent on the athletic department activities, "off the books," by the university. This number is probably an exaggeration, but I'm sure it's more than a "rounding" number. Anyone here really know anything about this?
With an aging billionaire backing everything -- one who's desperate to win -- I would believe there is so much extra money getting pumped around -- way more than we'd even think.
I mean .. NIL is now here and the NCAA is essentially "gone" in terms of any form of rules compliance (whatever rules are left). This is the world PK has been dreaming of. He's desperate to purchase a title.
Good work, John. I am pretty sure program success is proportional to the amount invested in it, with some significant variable being the quality of the coaches, both on and off field (recruiting), but then you should be able to identify and buy coaching quality. I am also thinking on the lines of price per player, especially the top 350 every year, or 1750 over a 5 year career of most players (the 4s and 5s, all seem to get a redshirt year along the way, now). Let's say only 4s and 5s, or those who work there way up to the quality level, are in line for NIL payments. Lets say Top 20 teams will recruit 8-16 per year and so will have from 40 to 80 such players on the roster, with the annual CFP programs closer to 60-80 such players, each, or pretty much all the starters and 2nd string. What does it cost in terms of an average NIL commitment to land and keep those players if the average NIL payout is $250K over the 5 years (I am assuming the published numbers are for a career, not per year)? It will cost $10M to $20M for player cost to field a Top 20 team in the near future, using my assumptions (Utah is already paying out $29K per player). This is on top of $10M for the HC and another $6-10M for the assistant coaching pool to say nothing of all the other travel type expenses you list, and not including capital costs for facilities, which seem to always be paid for by boosters. In any case, it is easy to get the cost of a Top 20 football program over $40M per year which means income for football must be over $70-80M for other school sports subsidies. How many programs generate $80M? That is right about the point where OSU is today. But top university sports programs have expense budgets well over $100M. How does OSU figure to get into that range? We know Oregon's plan which is to tap Knight's donor network. Does OSU have a similar plan to have a donor network to make up any difference plus capital improvements? How about "Crowd Funding"? I am not wealthy, but might pitch in $100 for a star player. If another 1000 did the same, we could make a difference. Here are the most expensive NIL payouts in football this year. Caleb Williams is making $2.4M per year!!!! https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/highest-paid-college-athletes-in-the-nil-era
Good news for Oregon: Reser's Fine Foods has offered to sponsor all future Duck 4th down conversion attempts.
FWIW, 'analytics' did not disagree with any of the 4th down attempts by the Ducks vs OR ST.
So, why not just bring on BOT as the OC and not pay an O coordinator?
Kick the damn FG and punt! And BTW, find a punter who does not have hands of Teflon.
I’d also like to see this with NIL. Utah built a team. USC bought a team. Which cracks under pressure?
I think SC easily covers vs Utah even though many more Utes fans will be tripping down on I 15,
The Utes is not the 2021 Utah and is in the game because the conference dropped divisions yet kept division-like scheduling.
SC played its most complete game of the year last Saturday vs Notre Dame and Caleb Williams plays for SC.
Norte Dame did not look that good.
Why was that a surprise? Stanford beat Notre Dame, in South Bend!
#15 in the country and a team that certainly looked good at UNC and versus Clemson.
SC's maligned D shut down the Irish run game.
The Irish have a terrible passing game.
Well... I guess my question was answered tonight. Utah got punched on the mouth and fought back. SC got punchrd back and fell spart
It galls me to admit - assuming I am right - the conference will benefit financially if SC makes the playoff. So yeah, I'm rooting for them to beat Utah, holding my nose the whole way. And the more I think about it the happier I am they Trojans are leaving the PAC. They are rapidly becoming a de-facto pro team and with all that LA offers I cannot see it stopping. We know the NCAA has no teeth anymore.
USC is becoming a de facto pro team?
You're a Duck fan, no?
What's really the difference between what USC is doing and Oregon is doing (and wants to do)?
*cough* execution *cough*
LOL!! Exactly, though we can say that USC has not executed in a lot of years. Look what the Beavers did to them at the Coliseum last year
Because SC is in a megalopolis, the entertainment capital of the world with unlimited NIL options. And no rules around player compensation, in effect. Yes, Oregon has resources too, but Eugene remains a college town.
I’m ok with PAC-12 taking the hit and having Utah win. 1. Utah to the Rose Bowl and not the Huskies. 2. USC not only loses out potential playoff, but also no Rose Bowl. This would be the Trojans last opportunity to be the PAC-12 representative because next year the Rosie is part of the playoff. And, yes, I fully own my Duck influenced pettiness.
1) There are more than a few Smith’s who are ok with Utah winning…. ;)
2) USC… 🤮
Go Dawgs
Unfortunately THIS would mean the Ducks receiving less post-season money and which may happen regardless, 4 SEC teams again going to NY6 bowls.
All that will be left are 2 perhaps 3 power five conferences thanks to play for pay and free agency when high school kids are gettin NIL money like they are in Oregon and major colleges are giving blue chip players Millions. it’s going to be the end of schools like Oregon Iowa State Utah Stanford California and the rest….
After reviewing all those number$, my first thought is simply this; appalling.
How far will it go?
I cringe at the thought
GO DAWGS
Isn't this really about being competitive? Could Cal, my alma Mater, ever pay a coach $10M? And what does this say about the idea that football has anything more to do with a school's educational objectives or ability to compete academically than the absurdity of what college football has become? My fiancée was watching the Oregon-OSU game and gagging over both uniform's colors. When I told her that the Quacks get a new uniform for every game, meaning at least 1000 uniforms a year she wondered why a school would pay that money to football and not towards academics. I think $10M for a coach, NIL money, the transfer portal, TV rights competitions, USC and UCLA moving to play in the Midwest and East really gets down to the question whether academic schools need to play this game any more?
I had Cal season tickets so I am no naysayer about football, but I just wrote Chancellor Christ wondering if it isn't time stop chasing football and spending the money getting more Nobel Prizes like we have with Jennifer Doudna's in chemistry. $10M goes a long way to attracting academic talent and my degree is more valuable from the Nobel Prizes than any football NC's.
Based on attendance or the lack thereof in Berkeley (and Stanford) you are far from the only CAL fan asking this question.
Div 1 FBS football has become the AAA farm system for the NFL. The transition is now complete. With college football players getting paid from bus money to multi-million $$ signing bonus money comparable to what the MLB teams pay out to 1st round draftees, college football is now formally divorced from academics. It is on-campus paid entertainment, and that is all. Players go where they get paid and treated the best with little consideration about academics in most cases (still the occasional engineer or pre-med among the players). I am not sure why Div 1 baseball doesn't also go the NIL route. Then a team like OSU could keep a top player through the senior year. The MLB teams can pay an NIL fee to the player that equals the signing bonus and the player can continue in college and not lose eligibility by signing the contract. Why hasn't that already happened?
Doesn't this risk the interest of fans (at least some of us) at some point?
We are just getting started and I'm honestly already disheartened with the change from watching players come in as young pups and maturing, growing and developing over a few years.
NFL Lite with school logos attached for some reason ... just seems like it'll be really odd at some point.
I doubt the powers-that-be and the Supreme Court care about your or my interest. That is the hard truth. The Supreme Court determined the players could not be exploited by their schools. I agree. The NIL program is the answer. And all the media outlets now compete for content and have a lot of money to throw at it. So as long as we have free markets and media companies can bid whatever they want to gain access to that content, the money will be there to bid up coaches pay and indirectly, NIL payouts.
A CFB players union is on the way and salary caps and restrictions on transfers will be negotiated by the comparatively few schools still playing big time CFB.
I actually think paying them directly + NIL on top is the answer, as it would allow for collective bargaining and some rules here.
The sport will really suffer eventually if it's just the handful of teams that want to go bananas in an unregulated NIL free for all.
I think most schools will abhor paying FUCA, FICA, state retirement contributions, etc. along not being able to drop a starter to 2nd string without an administrative hearing?
If pay for play becomes the norm as it likely will, football and all indicia of the football program will be licensed to a 3rd party.
NIL is in the form of a trust fund. Players are not salaried employees. But maybe you meant that in jest. The primary point is big money will cause havoc with college football and already has
I would say college football already has suffered from the very uneven "playing field" created by conferences and their agenda to win Championships at any cost (Oregon and USC being two very good examples of this). Those with the biggest markets and the most avaricious ADs and boosters will win this game of money and influence until there is nothing left of competitiveness and so no real season, just a playoff of 3 or 4 games between the Top 20. This is what happened in the NFL and MLB as well, until salary caps and revenue sharing was put into place to restore competition. It also what has happened in Indy car, NASCAR and Formula 1 racing where cars and their setups are heavily regulated both for safety and competition. Div 1 football needs to get there at some point, but first the sport needs to be destroyed by excessive ambition. The big programs will need to agree to throttle their excesses.
NIL applies to baseball as well. LSU is paying pitchers $100,000 and their parents another $100,000.
What about stepping down to FCS, where it actually is student athletes and not just an endless spending spree?
I think the main point I am trying to make is that we are not, nor never have been, competitive. Plus, the transfer portal, NIL, coaches getting $10M, empty stadiums, cruddy start times, no TV exposure and the loss of USC and UCLA will only worsen the situation. So, what is the point of it then since the Rose Bowl with a 12 team field will just become a playoff site, so winning the Pac-10 will send a team to...drum roll please...maybe Las Vegas to play Fresno State or Boise State. OH BOY!
I'm sorry but for 35-40 years of sitting in UU I saw about 3 seasons when we actually had a good team and still never played in the Rose Bowl...I might remind you that the last win we had in a Rose Bowl was 1938 and the last time we appeared was 1959.
As far as academics that is another discussion and we do not need any more international or out of state students...we need to be faithful to the State Higher Education Master Plan passed by Pat Brown and concentrate on California kids. I started at UCSB before transferring and my fees were $50 a quarter...now kids go into debt to the tune of $100K to get an education and that is sadder than NO Rose Bowl before I die :)
John.
Riley’s Salary of $ 10 mil about equals Jonathan’s salary of & 3.75 mil, based on the actual cost of living differences between LA and Corvallis . Having lived in The Bay Area recently for 6 years , I can tell you for a FACT that a Corvallis Dollar buys about 30 cents . Living with our standard of living here in Oregon
Requires 3 times the same salary to live in LA, like we do here in Oregon. We moved back to the Oregon Ocean because of that ! This is no exaggeration , I can assure you !
Rand W.
OSU”67 GiantKiller
Precisely! Well played.
Interesting. it would be fun to see salaries based on win totals. Can you imagine a world where coaches salaries are almost entirely based on incentive?
LOL 150k base and 12 mil ceiling.
I like it, like golf or tennis or auto racing . You do well, you get paid well.
I love the analysis and what seems to be missing to me is the revenue side of the equation. Increased/decreased revenue from tickets sales, sponsors, bowl games etc… as a result of a coaching change (wins) would certainly effect the cost/win math. That said, I sure hope OSU does what it takes to retain Smith, and also gives him the budget to retain his assistants. Like most fans, I love to watch the team I pull for win and how efficiently they get there is an important factor in affordability and sustainability of the program.
Smith isn't going anywhere for at least a few years, he wants to raise his kids in Corvallis and basically has the keys to the kingdom. Its the other coaches that worry me. I agree, hopefully we can keep them around a while longer.
NIL numbers should be included here for complete comparisons...I'm not sure if those are known.
I once attended a game at Autzen when the Ducks played San Jose State. The Duck quarterbacks name was Singleton. The final score was San Jose State 5, Oregon 3. And I thought they couldn’t do any worse. Saturday proved me wrong. Just sayin.
If you don't earn it you don't make it for long, except, of course, at Cal. David Shaw quit at Stanford because he realized he couldn't produce a winning team with the restrictions he was under and he was probably going to end up getting fired.
So what did Miami pay not-so-super Mario for their 5 wins? Also, I see Willie T. got fired...again. Poor guy is still collecting $300K per month from FSU for not working there anymore.
A couple of things:1) $5 million for food in a year outside travel and 1,000 uniforms in a year suggests they have more money than they know what to do with.
2) The year after Clemson won its first title I read that Clemson's alumni donations increased 50%.
3) UCLA's increase in money from joining the BIG is less than 1/2 of 1 percent of the university budget. I'm an alum and know no one who is happy about the move. The drop in alumni donations is going to dwarf the new money they will get.
I once saw where, after the student-athlete learning center (the glass box one) was turned over to Oregon it was up the University to staff it, as well as maintain the grounds, etc. etc. I have heard as high as $10 mil to $20 mil is spent on the athletic department activities, "off the books," by the university. This number is probably an exaggeration, but I'm sure it's more than a "rounding" number. Anyone here really know anything about this?
With an aging billionaire backing everything -- one who's desperate to win -- I would believe there is so much extra money getting pumped around -- way more than we'd even think.
I mean .. NIL is now here and the NCAA is essentially "gone" in terms of any form of rules compliance (whatever rules are left). This is the world PK has been dreaming of. He's desperate to purchase a title.
If Utah wins Friday, send in the clowns. Muwhahahahahha
Good work, John. I am pretty sure program success is proportional to the amount invested in it, with some significant variable being the quality of the coaches, both on and off field (recruiting), but then you should be able to identify and buy coaching quality. I am also thinking on the lines of price per player, especially the top 350 every year, or 1750 over a 5 year career of most players (the 4s and 5s, all seem to get a redshirt year along the way, now). Let's say only 4s and 5s, or those who work there way up to the quality level, are in line for NIL payments. Lets say Top 20 teams will recruit 8-16 per year and so will have from 40 to 80 such players on the roster, with the annual CFP programs closer to 60-80 such players, each, or pretty much all the starters and 2nd string. What does it cost in terms of an average NIL commitment to land and keep those players if the average NIL payout is $250K over the 5 years (I am assuming the published numbers are for a career, not per year)? It will cost $10M to $20M for player cost to field a Top 20 team in the near future, using my assumptions (Utah is already paying out $29K per player). This is on top of $10M for the HC and another $6-10M for the assistant coaching pool to say nothing of all the other travel type expenses you list, and not including capital costs for facilities, which seem to always be paid for by boosters. In any case, it is easy to get the cost of a Top 20 football program over $40M per year which means income for football must be over $70-80M for other school sports subsidies. How many programs generate $80M? That is right about the point where OSU is today. But top university sports programs have expense budgets well over $100M. How does OSU figure to get into that range? We know Oregon's plan which is to tap Knight's donor network. Does OSU have a similar plan to have a donor network to make up any difference plus capital improvements? How about "Crowd Funding"? I am not wealthy, but might pitch in $100 for a star player. If another 1000 did the same, we could make a difference. Here are the most expensive NIL payouts in football this year. Caleb Williams is making $2.4M per year!!!! https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/highest-paid-college-athletes-in-the-nil-era