Canzano: Week 2 picks, thoughts, and predictions
Are you superstitious?
I am not a superstitous person. However, I did reach out to several experts on the subject after I had a ridiculously successful run predicting the outcome of college football games in Week 1.
I was hot.
On fire, in fact.
I went 12-3 against the spread and 15-0 picking games straight up. I called USC’s upset of LSU. I predicted the exact score of the Stanford-TCU game. I nailed six straight games to start the season. The whole thing made me wonder if my socks were lucky or if I should eat the same breakfast (coffee with cream/sugar and two slices of bacon) every time I go to pick games.
I reached out to a Harvard professor and another at the University of Pennslyvania who are experts on superstition this week. What are superstitions really about? Why do we believe in them, particularly in sports? One of them pointed me to a paper that behaviorist and social philosopher B.F. Skinner wrote in the 1940s after studying the behavior of pigeons.
Skinner put a hungry pigeon in a box that dispensed food at regular intervals. An interesting thing occurred. The pigeon developed idiosyncratic behaviors. Some pigeons spun in circles or flapped their wings. Others bobbed their heads. Others developed random, senseless behaviors and tics.
The pigeon believed whatever it was doing when it was first fed might somehow be triggering the food. It developed a “superstition” and kept on doing it. It didn’t matter if the food was delivered immediately or not. The pigeon was conditioned, even if the reinforcement wasn’t consistent. It just kept repeating the behavior, and over time, the food was eventually delivered. That helped reinforce the superstition.
Do you sit in the same spot on your sofa when your team has the football? Wear a rally cap? Have a lucky item of clothing? Refuse to step on the foul line at a ballpark?
We’re a bunch of suckers.
Still, I’m making my picks this week while wearing my lucky socks…
My 2024 season record vs. the spread: 12-3 (.800)
My 2024 straight-up record: 15-0 (1.000)
My Week 2 picks, thoughts, and predictions…