I agree with all of your picks except UW/UT. It is going to be a noisy road game for UW in an indoor stadium. I just keep thinking about what UT did to Utah in 2019.
Assuming Williams can play, I think they will win big.
Texas (and all Texas area teams) are historically tough in the Alamo Bowl. Even when its a let down from hopes, its still a situation where even a Pac team that travels well will be out-numbered 5-1, against a team and a state that takes all football really seriously.
Washington should win this, but it is as much of an ambush situation as any year in and year out.
When Pete Carroll's teams got the BCS shaft the Trojans to their credit always showed up played hard and won the Rose Bowl.
Will be interesting to see if oh so close to the playoff SC shows up for the Cotton Bowl? If so I think Tulane, 1-1 vs UCF but with a big win at K ST, will not have the ability to stay with SC's skill players.
Oregon State is a QB away from serious national contention. NIL or not, they should have their pick of QBs in the portal. I'm not sure there's a better spot in the nation to showcase yourself for the 2024 draft. Come in for a year, take the Beavs to a January 1 bowl, and then start cashing checks.
Without NIL, you are looking at a FCS escapee looking for an FBS breakout, because there will be better proposals available for all the obvious and even reasonably decent talent on the market. And a good chunk of the OSU NIL pie has to be reserved for Damian Martinez. Probably some others as well; there are people who will have needs who would be very happy to have some of what the Beavers have developed.
So much for taking care of the student-athletes, at last. The QB gets 2 mil, and the "big uglies" get table scraps. If I were an offensive lineman I would be tempted to say, in a crucial down huddle, "You know what pretty boy? I need a big taste of your spiff, or I'm not motivated to block that monster coming for your pretty ass!" C'mon,Man!
I don't know John, Oregon State could have the truth with Aidan Chiles coming in, however a lot remains to be seen considering he will only be a true freshman. The battle between him, Gulbranson, and a transfer QB could be spicy.
He'll be 17 most.of next year, he may be good but he will need time to learn the scheme and the players, and how to read and autible a p5 defense. Gulbrand did do a good job of managing the game and adjusting for all his shortcomings. Chiles won't be able to do that most likely. I think we need a good transfer to get the competition going and mentor those two. From what I hear I hope they kept gebbia on as an assistant to teach the game management side.
100%, Chiles definitely seems like the long term play especially if we are talking ceiling here. His development will be key in figuring it all out but that staff and culture that Smith has is top notch.
I expect the PAC will represent in the bowl season - which will be welcome change.
JC, I appreciate that you don't get caught up in the minutia of recruiting. That said, I am hearing Dante Moore, Oregon's 5 star recruit from Michigan is considering a flip to UCLA on the promise of immediate playing time and God knows what in NIL - presumably becaise Bo Nix may be coming back next year. Do you know anything about this? TA.
Great question. But if he is getting NIL $ and OR is ahead of UCLA in the NIL game, why not mentor a year under Nix, start in 2024/2025 and then head to the pros.
Whether he starts for UCLA this season or not he still has to wait until after the 2025 season to go pro. And come 2024 he has a far better chance IMO of making the 12 team PO with Oregon than with UCLA.
I think USC has made amazing strides since last year, but they don't deserve to be in the playoff by any measure. It looks like the playoffs are in their future. I didn't realize Nikko Remigio is having such a good season. Remigio and Tedford -- the Cal connection. Too bad they aren't there anymore.
It's time to quit thinking the transfer portal is the answer to all your team's needs. Sure, some of these guys seem to be super star athletes but is the idea to look for new players every year? Ones that aren't there for their education or school? Just to collect some money and more on? How many players in the past that would have been overlooked by the NIL and have had great careers? Jonathan Smith was a walk-on, Poyer was a walk-on that everyone overlooked. And everyone said the Rodgers brothers were too small for football. Ralph Miller was the only one to offer Gary Payton a scholarship. There are some good athletes in the transfer portal and there's a lot of hype. There is a lot of talent out there that's not demanding a million a year to play college sports. I hope Jonathan Smith keeps on with the philosophy that the baseball team seems to have that it's not how great you are, it's how well you fit. Seems to be working.
I'll be honest, when players are opting out of major bowls, I lose interest in watching the game. BTW, Tulane will win because they want to be there. USC has a history of not caring about these "lesser" bowls.
My bowl Wish List:
PAC12 NW / 4-0
PAC12 SoCal / 0-2
Utah gets the Roses 🌹
NIL and the Portal are the new normal; hope Santa works through it all & drops the perfect QB for the Beavers down the chimney!
GO DAWGS
Good column.
I agree with all of your picks except UW/UT. It is going to be a noisy road game for UW in an indoor stadium. I just keep thinking about what UT did to Utah in 2019.
Assuming Williams can play, I think they will win big.
Have a great Christmas season.
Texas (and all Texas area teams) are historically tough in the Alamo Bowl. Even when its a let down from hopes, its still a situation where even a Pac team that travels well will be out-numbered 5-1, against a team and a state that takes all football really seriously.
Washington should win this, but it is as much of an ambush situation as any year in and year out.
90 or so minute drive south on I 35 for Horns fans.
Asked above. If I am correct and Utes TE Kincaid has opted out that's a big loss for the Utes.
Yes, he has, and so has Clark Phillips III, which is an even bigger loss.
Thanks. I knew Phillips had opted out but I was not sure about Kincaid?
Kincaid not playing, if he is healthy, seems strange to me as the Rose Bowl would give him a shot to improve his draft stock?
Love your Tulane pick over USC. Let’s hope we’re both right.
When Pete Carroll's teams got the BCS shaft the Trojans to their credit always showed up played hard and won the Rose Bowl.
Will be interesting to see if oh so close to the playoff SC shows up for the Cotton Bowl? If so I think Tulane, 1-1 vs UCF but with a big win at K ST, will not have the ability to stay with SC's skill players.
Oregon State is a QB away from serious national contention. NIL or not, they should have their pick of QBs in the portal. I'm not sure there's a better spot in the nation to showcase yourself for the 2024 draft. Come in for a year, take the Beavs to a January 1 bowl, and then start cashing checks.
Unfortunatly, players care as much, if not more, about NIL money now days.
Sure they want to play, and some will move for nothing more than playing time. But the norm is to bolster the NIL payments.
Without NIL, you are looking at a FCS escapee looking for an FBS breakout, because there will be better proposals available for all the obvious and even reasonably decent talent on the market. And a good chunk of the OSU NIL pie has to be reserved for Damian Martinez. Probably some others as well; there are people who will have needs who would be very happy to have some of what the Beavers have developed.
The good ones still want money too. WSU gave nearly 100k for their QB last year, who came out of FCS.
OSU punter made the most of his stay. BS Civil Engineering + MS Structural Engineering
I think Penix is going to make the Longhorns look more like armadillos.
I think a big key and question is whether BJ Robinson and his RB backup are going to suit up for the game?
Who has spent more time in the portal? Jt Daniels or Captain Kirk?
Rose Bowl. I know CB Phillips has opted out as has PSU CB JOey Porter plus PSU's best WR but has TE Kincaid of Utah also opted out?
Spot on. Oregon State is the next UTAH.
Built on toughness and togetherness
So much for taking care of the student-athletes, at last. The QB gets 2 mil, and the "big uglies" get table scraps. If I were an offensive lineman I would be tempted to say, in a crucial down huddle, "You know what pretty boy? I need a big taste of your spiff, or I'm not motivated to block that monster coming for your pretty ass!" C'mon,Man!
I don't know John, Oregon State could have the truth with Aidan Chiles coming in, however a lot remains to be seen considering he will only be a true freshman. The battle between him, Gulbranson, and a transfer QB could be spicy.
He'll be 17 most.of next year, he may be good but he will need time to learn the scheme and the players, and how to read and autible a p5 defense. Gulbrand did do a good job of managing the game and adjusting for all his shortcomings. Chiles won't be able to do that most likely. I think we need a good transfer to get the competition going and mentor those two. From what I hear I hope they kept gebbia on as an assistant to teach the game management side.
100%, Chiles definitely seems like the long term play especially if we are talking ceiling here. His development will be key in figuring it all out but that staff and culture that Smith has is top notch.
I expect the PAC will represent in the bowl season - which will be welcome change.
JC, I appreciate that you don't get caught up in the minutia of recruiting. That said, I am hearing Dante Moore, Oregon's 5 star recruit from Michigan is considering a flip to UCLA on the promise of immediate playing time and God knows what in NIL - presumably becaise Bo Nix may be coming back next year. Do you know anything about this? TA.
Great question. But if he is getting NIL $ and OR is ahead of UCLA in the NIL game, why not mentor a year under Nix, start in 2024/2025 and then head to the pros.
Whether he starts for UCLA this season or not he still has to wait until after the 2025 season to go pro. And come 2024 he has a far better chance IMO of making the 12 team PO with Oregon than with UCLA.
I think USC has made amazing strides since last year, but they don't deserve to be in the playoff by any measure. It looks like the playoffs are in their future. I didn't realize Nikko Remigio is having such a good season. Remigio and Tedford -- the Cal connection. Too bad they aren't there anymore.
"Oregon State needs a QB win in the Portal"....Check
It's time to quit thinking the transfer portal is the answer to all your team's needs. Sure, some of these guys seem to be super star athletes but is the idea to look for new players every year? Ones that aren't there for their education or school? Just to collect some money and more on? How many players in the past that would have been overlooked by the NIL and have had great careers? Jonathan Smith was a walk-on, Poyer was a walk-on that everyone overlooked. And everyone said the Rodgers brothers were too small for football. Ralph Miller was the only one to offer Gary Payton a scholarship. There are some good athletes in the transfer portal and there's a lot of hype. There is a lot of talent out there that's not demanding a million a year to play college sports. I hope Jonathan Smith keeps on with the philosophy that the baseball team seems to have that it's not how great you are, it's how well you fit. Seems to be working.
I'll be honest, when players are opting out of major bowls, I lose interest in watching the game. BTW, Tulane will win because they want to be there. USC has a history of not caring about these "lesser" bowls.
Six Pac 12 teams will finish with 10 or more wins for the season...