I read a baseball book written by George Will once in which he spent a chapter on pitching and Orel Hershiser. In “Men at Work,” Hershiser discussed the craft of throwing a baseball 60 feet, six inches. He was very good at it. In fact, for a stretch during the 1988 season, nobody was better at throwing from the mound than the Dodgers pitcher.
Hershiser threw 59 consecutive scoreless innings that season. He was virtually untouchable. It was a remarkable feat. And the pitcher told Will in the book that when he didn’t have his best stuff — or more precisely — when he couldn’t find pinpoint control in the bullpen (or his ball was moving too much), he instead relied on something others have called the “chance deviance method.”
Or as Hershiser said: “Just throw it down the middle.”
Instead of trying to hit the corner and missing with a fat pitch out over the middle of the plate, Hershiser held a team meeting with himself and focused on throwing the ball down the middle. He let the natural movement of his fastball find the corners.
I thought about that last college football season. After four consecutive years of being above .500 in picking games against the point spread, I found myself struggling to throw strikes. Realignment was giving me some problems. I was picking games involving unfamiliar teams and circumstances. Or maybe this was just a case of averages working themselves out. But I was under .500 as the 12-team College Football Playoff approached.
I decided to channel Hershiser’s philosophy in the final 11 games of the season. I’m assertive. I’m decisive. So I decided to throw the ball down the middle. I looked at the matchups and picked who I thought the better team was. Not just to win the game, but to cover the spread, too.
An interesting thing happened — I found the strike zone.
I went 9-2 picking games against the spread in the CFP last season. I caught fire in the postseason. Maybe it was just a lucky run after a shaky regular season, but I stopped crunching data and picked the better team. I’m eager to see if that philosophy holds water this regular season.
2025 record picking college football games, straight up: 118-62 (.656)
My 2025 record vs. the spread: 85-93 (.478)
The late 9-2 run salvaged my season. A chimpanzee throwing darts could have fared just as well in the regular season. I considered adopting a primate and buying a dartboard, but I once read a horrific story that involved an angry chimpanzee that attacked its caretaker. Hershiser’s philosophy is less risky.
Let’s see how I do in 2026.
Give me your picks in the comment section.
My Week 0 picks…